50 period MA on the weekly is being heavily tested, and we've been in a beastly uptrend since August. If you look at the longer-term behaviour of rates, you see a beautifullly defined channel, with consistent breakouts above the 50 period MA. Time for a bond market correction, and a reassessment (and repricing) of the risk-free rate. Cheers!
Word on the street is that real rates are surging. SURGING, I tell you!! The financial press gets caught up in the moment, swept along in the excitement, elation, and fear of any directional market move. During such times, it is especially valuable to step back, look at the bigger picture, and ascertain if the long-term prevailing trend is at risk of a breakout...
An insane move across Yields with historic outflows, I am expecting some relief over the coming weeks but we the lows are still open for a 5th wave sequence. This target will worryingly come into play at 0.20x! We have intentionally covered the Credit Spreads together here in order to see what is "challenging" in the US economy: Such compensation is...
A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play. For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts): Steel Support => 1.65 Strong Support =>...
Daily Chart Explanation: - Price was on an Ascending Channel and broke it. - Now, it is developing a Bearish Corrective Structure. - If price breaks it, it has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone first and, then, continue towards the Primary Support Zone . Weekly Vision: 4H Vision: Updates coming soon!
Getting close to inversion. If the 10y keeps the breakout momentum up, we will invert soon.
This line charts gives an idea how a currencies 10yr yield develop, relatively, vs the usd 10 yr yield. This goes only back to 2012-ish since no earlier data was available via the tickerdata. Trying to acquire new ticker data so we can make it complete up until the 90's. It should provide a clue where the USD is going short/medium term. Considering the output of...
Still cannot know whether the underlying asset will be turning from the 1.382 / .50 or the 1.618 / .618 but there is a strong confluence on both levels which makes me believe that one of them which prove to be a a key reversal point. Also judging by the strong correlation between 10-Y yields and the DXY which is also nearing a major reversal point we could in...
Fundamental idea that term premia should revert back to historic norms supports this trade.
At extreme levels, however, the data doesn't look correct... I'm certain it is the most extreme since 2005!
The U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data. However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart,...