The USD/TRY has one of the highest Roll Over Interest out there should you choose to take on this highly volatile pair. It isn't so much that it is volatile, it has to do more with price just moves one direction, and that is up. The way we want to go is down (short) or at least sideways (ranging). Why is this interesting? It is because the Rollover Interest...
Considering we are almost in 2k23 (Merry Christmas btw xd), obsession with returns & log-returns is hilarious: 1) It implies sampling, which is info loss by definition, I don't even wanna mention that most don't even bother with proper one-point estimates of dem datapoints, dem just use Close prices; 2) Then the differencing process itself, whatever the lag is,...
My thoughts about performance. This kind of info is not very available so I have to do some guesswork. We that spend all day in front of the computer expect to get better returns than 10% a year. But we have no idea what is possible and where we "rank" compared to others. All academics look at ever is day traders, yes 99% of day traders lose money and 1% earn...
Between 1990 and June 2000 the median hedge fund (there are not that many that started in 1990) had an annual return of 16.3% and max drawdown of 28.5% according to MORGAN STANLEY. Keep in mind the 2/20 destroys profits. (16.3%*1.25)+2% = 22.4%, and 28.5-2 = 26.5%. So what the median fund actually did I I did not mess it up was get 22.4% return a year and a max...
I already posted that the average trader at a big broker (FXCM) had a negative expectancy. Their risk rewards are around 0.5-0.6 with winrates of ~ 60%. This means for each dollar they make they lose 1.22. Their Profit Factor is ~ 0.82. 4 lose 6 wins each win is $30 each lose is $55 ==> Profits = 180 Losses = 220. So this explains why the average loses. But not...
We compare a BTC baggy speculator to a largely diversified fund. We assume risk rewards are the same and on 1 side the BTC baggy takes 2 huge trades over a 2 year period, the diversified fund has 200 positions in total, in bacthes of 10 that are held approximately 10 weeks each. This is quite similar to reality. I also compare the 2 time BTC gambler to a...