Top 10 Rookie Trading Mistakes (And How to Laugh at Your Own)So you’ve just discovered trading. Maybe it started with a Reddit thread. Maybe someone said “trading Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is like printing money.” Or maybe you just liked the name “Shiba Inu” and figured memecoins was a good investment thesis.
Either way, welcome. This is where dreams are made, lost, rebought on leverage, and then tweeted about.
The markets are ruthless, but also educational — if you’re humble enough to learn and bold enough to laugh when you inevitably light your first $100 on fire by accidentally shorting Apple NASDAQ:AAPL during a breakout.
This article is for you. The new trader. The (overconfident?) beginner. Let’s talk about the top 10 rookie trading mistakes — and how to laugh at your own before the market does it for you.
1️⃣ Mistaking Luck for Skill (aka “Call Me Baby Buffett”)
Your first trade is a win. Your second is too. Maybe it’s a meme stock . Maybe it’s a hot IPO. Either way, you’re convinced you’ve cracked the matrix.
You tell your friends: “I just have a feel for this stuff.”
What actually happened: You got lucky in a trending market. And now you're about to go full Titanic on a position you didn’t research, because hey — you're "on a roll."
What you can do insead, and probably have a laugh about it years later, is screenshot your account right now in your very early steps. Frame it. Label it: Exhibit A in Emotional Risk Management.
2️⃣ The Revenge Trade: “I’ll Win It Back”
You took a loss. A big one. Your first real slap from the market. So what do you do? Walk away? Reflect? Journal it?
Nah. You go in twice as hard on the next setup. Same ticker. Same direction. More size.
Spoiler alert: It doesn’t end well.
That type of spiraling behavior usually happens when you think the market owes you something. It doesn’t. Not even an apology.
Imagine explaining your decision to a judge. “Your Honor, I lost money shorting Tesla, so naturally I doubled down five minutes later.” Case dismissed — and that’s why revenge trading is so dangerous .
3️⃣ FOMO FOMO FOMO
A green candle pops up on your watchlist. It’s moving. Fast. You missed the breakout but you still click “buy” because you’re not missing this train.
You get in. It tops. You hold. It drops. You panic. It rebounds… just after you sell.
Classic rookie cycle.
Why does this happen? The fear of missing out turns off your brain faster than a margin call. Call it what it is — chasing. Say it out loud like it’s therapy: “Hi, this is Patrick and I like to buy things 10% too late.” Maybe it helps.
4️⃣ “I’m Married to This Trade”
It started with a spark. The chart looked good. The RSI whispered sweet nothings. You thought, “This could be the one.”
So you bought. Then bought again. And when it dipped harder than your last relationship, you said, “It’s okay, we’re just going through a rough patch.”
Before you knew it, you weren’t trading — you were in a toxic relationship with a ticker.
You’ve abandoned your edge for emotion. Confirmation bias kicks in, and instead of managing risk, you’re managing denial. You stop analyzing the chart and start defending it like it’s your firstborn.
If you’re talking about a stock (or anything else on a chart) the way your friend talks about their ex — “It just needs time, I know it’ll come back” — you’re not trading. You’re coping.
5️⃣ All In, All the Time
Risk management? Never heard of that. You found a setup that “can’t fail,” so you went 100% in. On margin. On a Friday.
What could go wrong?
Answer: Everything. Especially when your trade gaps against you on Monday morning after Trump has said tariffs are changing once again.
That’s when you know you’re mistaking conviction for strategy. They’re not the same.
6️⃣ Ignoring the Bigger Picture
You nailed the 15-minute chart. Gorgeous breakout. But somehow, you forgot to check the daily — where your “breakout” is just a lower high in a brutal downtrend.
Oops.
Think about whether you've got tunnel vision. You went along with your short-term bias instead of checking the bigger picture when things are different.
What you can do instead, is make a rule: before every trade, zoom out. Literally. Leave no timeframe unexamined (at least up to the daily frame).
7️⃣ Trading Every Day Like It’s the Super Bowl
New traders think they have to trade every day. Every single session. Every little move.
And when there’s no good setup? They make one up, trying to whip up trendlines to justify their trading.
What happens next: Boredom trades. Overtrading.
Why it happens: You're addicted to the action, not the outcome.
What can you do instead? Write down the number of trades you made last week. Multiply it by the average commission you paid. Now imagine what you could’ve bought instead. And, what could be even better, consider taking a lesson in patience .
8️⃣ Blind Faith in Indicators
The RSI is at 18. The MACD just crossed. Stochastic says “maybe.”
So you buy. No price action. No trend. Just… vibes and indicators.
Result: You become a victim of the “indicator trap” — relying so heavily on these lines you forget to read the actual chart — momentum, market sentiment, broader technicals, and fundamentals.
What’s a better approach is to treat your indicators like seasoning, not the main dish. The best trades come from confluence, not wishful thinking dressed up as technical analysis.
9️⃣ The Trading Journal You Never Wrote
If you can’t remember why you entered a trade, you’re not at your best. Here’s a pro tip:
Keep a trading journal . One that records your thesis, entry, stop, target, and outcome. You know — the boring stuff that makes you better.
Why is that important? Journaling builds discipline. Patterns. Self-awareness. It’s never too late to start your journal!
🔟 Expecting to Get Rich Quick
This is the big one. The rookie mindset that kills most portfolios: I’m gonna turn $500 into $5,000 in a month.
You won’t. Sorry.
And even if you do, you won’t keep it.
Trading rewards patience, process, and preservation. Not YOLO bets and delusions of grandeur.
Try looking at your P&L like a diet. If you expect six-pack abs in a week, you’ll burn out and crash your progress. If you focus on habits? You’ll outlive the hype.
📚 Conclusion: Every Trader Starts Stupid
Let’s be clear — all of us have made these mistakes, even the big shots out there that run billion-dollar funds. The only difference between a rookie and a pro is how fast you learn from them. Or better yet — how fast you can laugh at them, document them, and evolve.
Because the truth is, the market is the most expensive comedy club on Earth. And every trade is a new punchline.
So if you're new, mess up. Take notes. Stay humble. And above all — enjoy the chaos. One day you’ll look back at your Doge CRYPTOCAP:DOGE top-buy with fondness.
After all, it’s only a mistake if you didn’t learn. Otherwise, it’s just tuition paid for by your trading account.
What’s a mistake we didn’t mention? Share your tips, tricks, mistakes, and lessons in the comment section!
Community ideas
Learn Best Candlestick Pattern For Trend Trading Gold XAUUSD
This secret pattern will change the way you trade Gold XAUUSD.
If you study technical analysis in Gold trading, there is one unique candlestick pattern that you absolutely need to know.
In this article, you will learn the structure and the meaning of one of the most accurate candlesticks in Gold trading.
I will teach you how to recognize this pattern and how to trade it for maximum profits.
Let's start with some theory and let me show you how this candlestick pattern looks.
This candlestick pattern is called inside bar.
It is based on a combination of at least 3 candles.
The first candlestick in a sequence should be a strong bullish or bearish candle. The consequent candles should strictly close within its range.
If at least 2 candles close within the range of the first candle with its bodies, that will be a valid inside bar.
The first candle will always be called the mother's bar , while the following candles will be called the inside bars.
That's a perfect example of the inside bar pattern on Gold XAUUSD chart on a daily.
This pattern is based on 2 important elements that you should always pay close attention to.
The upper boundary of the range of the mother's bar will compose a significant resistance that will provide a safe place to sell.
While the lower boundary of the range of the mother's bar will be a strong support to buy Gold from.
Look how nicely Gold price respected the resistance of the range, dropped to its support and started to grow then.
Once you identified the inside bar, you can easily trade it within the range.
However, I strictly recommend waiting for a confirmation signal before you place a trade.
One of the proven confirmations is a price action signal on lower time frames.
In the example above, Gold formed a bullish chart pattern - double bottom after a test of a support and a bearish pattern - head and shoulders after a test of a resistance.
Remember that the market can not stay within the range of the inside bar candlestick pattern forever.
Bullish violation and a candle close above the range will be a strong signal to buy Gold.
While, a bearish breakout of its range will provide a strong bearish confirmation.
That's how a breakout of the underlined resistance triggered a strong rally on Gold.
Inside bar is the essential pattern both for the gold swing traders and day traders.
This pattern provides a lot of profitable trading opportunities, being very simple to recognize.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
High-Frequency Trading (HFT) in Forex and StocksHigh-Frequency Trading (HFT) in Forex and Stocks
High-Frequency Trading (HFT) has garnered significant attention due to its transformative impact on markets, reshaping the way they operate, influencing liquidity, price discovery, and overall efficiency. In this FXOpen article, we focus on high frequency forex and stock trading, its definition and its specific applications, pointing out the opportunities and challenges that this trading method presents.
High-Frequency Trading: An In-Depth Analysis
High-frequency trading represents a dynamic and swiftly evolving facet of the financial world. Understanding the basic HFT concept can help traders develop and employ advanced trading strategies.
Definition
At its essence, high-frequency trading is characterised by the swift execution of a substantial number of orders within exceptionally brief time intervals, often measured in milliseconds or microseconds. Traders engaged in HFT within the market leverage robust algorithms and state-of-the-art technology to scrutinise extensive sets of market data, facilitating swift and informed trading decisions. At the heart of HFT is its ability to harness even the slightest price differentials, allowing traders to take advantage of market inefficiencies that may elude traditional counterparts.
Key Features
The key attributes of high-frequency trading encompass remarkable speed, elevated order-to-trade ratios, and a dedicated focus on exploiting short-term fluctuations in the market. The primary objective is to execute a considerable volume of orders with precision, enabling traders to capitalise on momentary opportunities. This approach aligns with the broader domain of algorithmic trading, where pre-programmed instructions are believed to guide strategic decision-making for potentially efficient market participation.
HFT isn’t very common for retail traders. Usually, it’s done by institutional investors as this method requires significant funds and advanced software.
Strategies Employed in HFT Forex and Stock Trading
High-frequency trading encompasses a variety of strategies, each designed to exploit specific market conditions.
- Market Making involves the continuous quoting of buy and sell prices for currency pairs and stocks. HFT investors aim to capture the bid-ask spread swiftly, contributing to market liquidity. By providing liquidity, market makers facilitate seamless transactions on HFT trading platforms and play a crucial role in the efficient functioning of the markets.
- Order Flow Analysis: HFT traders analyse the order flow, seeking insights into the direction of large institutional orders. They may front-run these orders, quickly buying or selling to take advantage of subsequent price movements.
- Tick Scalping: This strategy involves making numerous small trades on tiny price fluctuations within milliseconds. HFT algorithms are designed to capture these minuscule movements.
- Machine Learning and AI: Advanced machine learning and AI techniques are increasingly used in HFT. These algorithms continuously learn from market data to refine strategies and adapt to changing market conditions.
Choosing the Right Tools in the High-Frequency Trading Landscape
The selection of the right tools is paramount for forex and stock traders, whereby several key components have to be considered.
Best High-Frequency Trading Software Can Unleash Algorithmic Power
At the heart of every high-frequency trading strategy lies powerful software designed to execute trades with speed and precision. The best high-frequency trading software incorporates advanced algorithms, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to analyse market data swiftly. These algorithms may help traders to make split-second decisions, leveraging the smallest market differentials. High-frequency trading software should also evolve quickly to meet the demands of modern traders. Such software cannot be launched on a regular PC.
High-Frequency Trading Brokers Should Facilitate Swift Execution
High-frequency trading brokers facilitate the rapid execution of trades and provide access to market liquidity. These brokers often offer low-latency connections, specialised infrastructure, and co-location services to minimise execution delays. The selection process involves the careful consideration of factors such as execution speed, fees, and reliability. High-frequency trading brokers typically offer integrated high-frequency trading apps that allow for real-time monitoring, instant decision-making, and swift trade execution. As the demand for flexibility and accessibility continues to grow, high-frequency trading technology has become an indispensable tool.
The Impact of High-Frequency Trading
High-frequency trading brings forth a dual-edged sword for forex and stock markets, with both advantages and concerns shaping its impact on financial markets. Striking the balance is essential for fostering a financial environment that encourages innovation while upholding the principles of transparency and fairness that retail traders rely on.
Advantages of HFT
One of the primary advantages of high-frequency trading is its positive impact on market liquidity. HFT strategies contribute to a continuous flow of buy and sell orders, which may ensure there is a ready market for traders to execute transactions. This increased liquidity may lead to narrower bid-ask spreads, benefiting market participants by reducing transaction costs.
Concerns and Criticisms
Critics argue that the speed and volume of HFT trades can be used to influence prices in a way that may not align with fair market practices. Strategies such as spoofing, layering, and quote stuffing have raised apprehensions about the integrity of market dynamics. HFT's role in the market has also been linked to increased volatility, especially during times of stress or uncertainty. The rapid execution of trades by algorithms responding to changing market conditions can amplify price swings, leading to concerns about stability.
Final Thoughts
Though institutional and professional traders are more likely to have the required financial resources to invest in cutting-edge high-frequency trading technology and infrastructure, retail traders can also take advantage of the HFT concept by researching the available options and understanding the market implications.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Fake Candle: Stop Getting Liquidated TodayA giant green candle pops up on your chart… You get excited, jump in — and boom, price dumps !
Fake candles are one of the market’s most psychological traps .
This breakdown shows how to avoid getting tricked — and even profit from them!
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on Dogecoin:
Dogecoin has posted an impressive 60% rally in recent weeks and is now testing the key psychological resistance at $0.25. A confirmed breakout from this level could unlock at least 22% further upside , aligning with a breakout above the descending channel toward the $0.28 target. Key daily support, Fibonacci confluence, and a rising trendline are also in play. 📉🚀
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
🧠 The Psychology Behind Candle Traps
It all starts when the market shows a sudden sharp move. A strong bullish candle — full of hope — shows up out of nowhere. But guess what? Most of the time, it’s just bait.
Smart money loves this moment — when retail traders think a moonshot is coming.
So never trust the candle’s look alone. Look deeper for confirmation.
🛠 TradingView Tools to Catch Fake Candles📊
practical tools inside TradingView that help detect false signals.
Set these up and test them live in your charting flow:
Volume Profile
Shows you where volume is really happening. No volume = no trust.
Session Volume HD
Reveals hidden session volume. If a big candle has weak session volume, that’s a red flag.
Relative Volume (RVOL)
Tells you if current volume is above/below normal.
Fake candles often come with volume mismatch.
Candle Close Timer
Shows how long until a candle closes.
Wait for that close — fake candles often flip last minute.
Multiple Timeframe Analysis
Check higher TFs before trusting the move.
Many fake candles trick you in low TFs.
Apply these directly inside your TradingView layout — it’s a game changer.
🔍 Real Candle vs Fake Candle
A real candle usually forms at a key support/resistance level with solid volume.
A fake one? Often pops up in a random zone, low volume, and before higher timeframes confirm.
Pro tip: Wait for the candle to fully close — then check if volume + structure supports the move.
📉 Rookie Mistake Alert
New traders often jump in on the first big candle they see.
Why? Because they want to be “early” and catch the move.
But in markets, patience wins — not speed.
Follow footprints, not fireworks.
🎯 Three-Step Filter For Fake Candles
Here’s your anti-fake-candle checklist:
No volume? No entry!
Confirmation over assumption. Use indicators like RSI, divergence, or MAs.
Always check the higher timeframe. Low TF = high deception.
🔄 Market Makers Love These Games
Fake candles are a classic weapon for market makers.
They know exactly when emotional traders will FOMO in.
These aren’t just candles — they’re emotional traps.
Study the trap, not just the move.
🧩 Final Takeaway & Suggestion
Fake candles aren’t just technical — they’re psychological .
Use the right tools, wait for confirmation, and don’t let your emotions lead .
Start your next analysis with a mental filter , not just a visual one.
always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅.
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box.
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Greed: The Silent Killer Behind Your LiquidationsWhen the market turns green, everyone feels like a genius... But why do most traders lose the most money exactly at that point?
Is it your greed tricking you, or is the market designed to trap emotions?
In this analysis, we take a deep dive into how greed shapes your decisions — plus tools to help you stay rational before placing any trade.
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on Solana:
SOL, a market leader and one of my top picks, is currently consolidating near the critical psychological level of $200. Given its historical momentum and influence over correlated assets, a clean break above this level could trigger a minimum 14% upside, with $200 as the immediate target . Market sentiment remains cautious, but the setup hints at a potential bullish continuation 🚀.
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
💥 Where Does Greed Actually Start?
Greed often wears the mask of motivation. The difference? Motivation is rooted in analysis. Greed is rooted in fantasy.
When a coin suddenly pumps 150%, the noise on social media explodes — and so do your imagined gains… often before you've even checked the 4H chart.
📊 TradingView Tools to Spot Greed Traps
TradingView isn't just about pretty charts — it's a powerful platform to organize your trading mindset, if you know how to use it right. Here are three practical tools to help you identify whether your next trade is based on logic — or just plain hype:
Fear & Greed Index:
A composite indicator showing the market's emotional state using volume, volatility, and other metrics. Readings above 70? You’re probably in a greed zone.
Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR):
This shows where real money has flowed. If you’re buying in a price zone with historically low volume, you might be walking into a fake breakout.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) with 2 or 7 Settings:
A hyper-reactive RSI setting helps you catch emotional peaks in smaller timeframes. Above 80? Time to breathe, not buy.
Pro tip : Build a self-check list on your chart. Questions like: “Am I acting on impulse?” or “Is this revenge trading?” can save you from emotional trades.
🔁 Repeating Behaviors That Kill Accounts
Entering with high leverage and no stop-loss
Buying into massive green candles
Copying trades without personal analysis
Switching strategies based on emotions
Trading just to recover past losses (aka revenge trading)
These are not strategy flaws — they are emotional traps caused by unchecked greed.
🧘♂️ How to Calm Your Mind Before Trading
Ask yourself: "If this trade flips against me, what's my move?"
Use TradingView Alerts instead of staring at charts for hours
Define risk per trade as a percentage, not based on "gut feeling"
Always have an exit plan — the market doesn’t care about your hopes
📉 Is Liquidation Always a Sign of Bad Analysis?
Not always. Often, the chart was right, but greed kept the trader from exiting at the logical spot. Tools told you to get out — but your mind said, “What if it goes higher?”
🧭 How Greed Shows Up in Different Timeframes
In 5-minute charts, greed looks like sudden spikes. In 4H charts, it can be a fakeout or deceptive pullback.
Recognizing the form greed takes in your preferred timeframe is a game-changer.
🧲 How to Use Greed to Your Advantage
Yes — you can flip the script. When everyone is entering trades driven by greed, you can prepare to exit.
If RSI is high, volume is weak, and hype is everywhere — maybe it’s time to cash out, not load up .
💡Closing Note
Greed exists in every market — but that doesn’t mean you have to follow it.
Start treating your chart like a mirror — not a crystal ball. When a trade feels “too perfect,” stop and reflect. It might not be your edge talking — it might be your greed .
always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅.
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box.
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
My First Look at the New 2025 TradingView Stock ScreenerI’ve made plenty of videos in the past covering the old TradingView Stock Screener - the one that used to sit below the chart.
In May 2025, TradingView moved the screener to the sidebar and replaced it with the standalone version previously accessed via the top menu. This video is my first walkthrough of the updated layout, and I’m talking through it as I figure out how it works and what’s changed compared to the older version.
For this example, I’m scanning for stocks that may have been oversold and are showing signs of recovery. I start with the MACD, looking for bullish crossovers where the MACD line moves above the signal line. I then add RSI and sort it from lowest to highest to highlight stocks that might have been more heavily sold off ie potential value plays. I also apply filters for price (between $10 and $100) and average daily volume (over 100,000) to avoid thinly traded penny stocks.
Hope you find it useful. This is my first look at the updated screener, so if I’ve missed anything, feel free to point it out.
zAngus
Mastering the Death cross and Golden cross - How to use it!In this guide I will discuss the Death crosses and Golden crosses. The next subjects will be described:
- What SMA to use?
- What is a Death cross?
- What is a Golden cross
- Is a Death cross always bearish and a Golden cross always bullish?
- How did the Death crosses and Golden crosses play out this cycle?
What SMA to use for Deathcross and Golden cross on the daily timeframe
In technical analysis, when identifying Golden Crosses and Death Crosses on the daily timeframe, the most commonly used moving averages are the 50-day and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMA). The 50-day moving average represents the average closing price of an asset over the past 50 trading days and reflects medium-term market trends. The 200-day moving average, on the other hand, represents the average over a longer period and is used to gauge the broader, long-term trend.
What is a Deatch cross?
A death cross is a bearish technical analysis signal that occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average. Most commonly, it refers to the 50-day simple moving average crossing below the 200-day simple moving average on a daily price chart. This crossover suggests that recent price momentum is weakening relative to the longer-term trend, which can be an early indication of a potential downtrend or extended period of market weakness.
The death cross is often interpreted as a sign of increasing selling pressure and a shift in investor sentiment toward caution or pessimism. While it does not predict immediate declines, it is closely watched because it has historically preceded some significant market downturns. However, like all technical indicators, it is not infallible. Since it is based on past price data, the death cross is a lagging indicator, meaning it often appears after a downward trend has already begun.
What is a Golden cross?
A golden cross is a bullish technical analysis pattern that signals the potential beginning of a long-term uptrend. It occurs when a short-term moving average, typically the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), crosses above a long-term moving average, most commonly the 200-day SMA, on a daily price chart. This crossover suggests that recent price momentum is strengthening in relation to the longer-term trend, indicating growing investor confidence and increasing buying interest.
The golden cross is widely viewed as a positive signal by traders and investors, often marking a shift from a downtrend or consolidation phase to a more sustained upward movement. It reflects a change in market sentiment where shorter-term gains begin to outweigh longer-term losses.
Is a Death cross always bearish and a Golden cross always bullish?
The death cross is not always a purely bearish signal. While it reflects that price momentum has shifted to the downside, it's important to remember that moving averages are lagging indicators. By the time the crossover occurs, much of the downward move may already be priced in. As a result, it's common to see a relief rally shortly after the signal appears. This bounce can catch traders off guard, especially those who enter short positions expecting immediate continued weakness.
On the other hand, the golden cross often sparks a wave of bullish sentiment. Many traders see it as confirmation of a strong uptrend, leading to increased buying pressure. However, just like with the death cross, the lagging nature of the signal means that much of the initial move may have already happened. It's not unusual for the price to stall or even retrace shortly after the crossover, especially if the market has become overextended. In both cases, the market often reacts in a counterintuitive way in the short term, which is why these signals are best used alongside other tools and indicators.
How did the Death crosses and Golden crosses play out this cycle?
In this cycle, we’ve seen three death crosses and three golden crosses on the daily timeframe, with a fourth golden cross currently in the making. Interestingly, all three of the previous death crosses have not led to sustained downside as many might expect. Instead, each one has marked a local bottom, followed by strong upward movement in the weeks and months that followed. These signals, rather than being a reason for bearishness, turned out to be contrarian indicators. The most recent death cross occurred when Bitcoin was trading around 80k. From there, it managed to rebound impressively, climbing back above 111k, a clear reminder that death crosses, especially in this cycle, have not been reliable signals for further downside.
The golden crosses, on the other hand, have behaved a bit differently than usual in this cycle. The first golden cross actually marked a local top, with Bitcoin facing rejection shortly after. During the second golden cross, price action was more neutral, BTC moved sideways for a period before eventually continuing its upward trend. The third golden cross was followed by only a shallow pullback, after which Bitcoin pushed to new all-time highs.
Now, we are approaching the formation of the fourth Golden cross. Based on the pattern of past crosses and current market sentiment, a minor pullback could be on the horizon. It’s not guaranteed, but given the level of euphoria in the market right now, some cooling off would not be surprising. Even if a pullback does occur, the larger trend remains intact, and this golden cross may end up reinforcing that momentum.
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Color Your Trades: MACD 4C vs the Classic📊 Coloring Momentum: Comparing Standard MACD vs MACD 4C
Momentum indicators are a trader’s compass—but not all compasses are created equal. In this post, we compare the classic MACD with the visually enhanced MACD 4C , a four-color histogram tool that adds clarity and nuance to trend and momentum analysis.
Let’s break down how both tools work, how we use them at Xuantify, and how you can decide which one fits your strategy best.
🔍 What Are These Indicators?
Standard MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a time-tested momentum indicator that plots the difference between two EMAs (typically 12 and 26) and a signal line (usually a 9 EMA of the MACD line). It’s simple, effective, and widely used.
MACD 4C , developed by vkno422 , builds on the classic MACD by introducing a four-color histogram and divergence detection , making it easier to interpret momentum shifts and trend strength visually.
Key Differences:
Standard MACD: Two lines + histogram (single color)
MACD 4C: Histogram only, but with four colors to show trend strength and direction
MACD 4C includes bullish/bearish divergence detection
🧠 How We Use Them at Xuantify
We use both indicators—but for different purposes.
1. Standard MACD – Clean Confirmation
We use it for classic trend confirmation and crossover signals . It’s great for traders who prefer minimalism and are comfortable interpreting line-based momentum.
2. MACD 4C – Visual Momentum Clarity
We use MACD 4C when we want a more intuitive, color-coded view of momentum. The four-color histogram helps us quickly spot trend strength, exhaustion, and divergence.
🧭 Color Coding in MACD 4C
MACD 4C uses four histogram colors (default settings):
Lime/Green : Bullish momentum building or continuing
Red/Maroon : Bearish momentum building or continuing
This makes it easier to:
Spot momentum shifts
Identify trend continuation
Detect divergence at a glance
⚙️ Settings That Matter
Both indicators allow customization, but MACD 4C offers more visual tuning:
MACD 4C:
Adjustable fast/slow MA and signal smoothing
Toggle divergence detection
Color-coded histogram for quick reads
Standard MACD:
Clean, minimal, and widely supported
Best for traders who prefer traditional setups
🔗 Best Combinations with These Indicators
We combine MACD tools with:
Structure Tools – BOS/CHOCH for context
Liquidity Zones – To spot where momentum may reverse
Volume Profile – To confirm strength behind moves
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – For precision entries
⚠️ What to Watch Out For
Both indicators are lagging by nature—they rely on moving averages. MACD 4C’s divergence detection can help anticipate reversals, but it’s still best used as a confirmation tool , not a standalone signal.
🔁 Repainting Behavior
Both the standard MACD and MACD 4C are non-repainting . Once a histogram bar or crossover is printed, it remains fixed. This makes them reliable for real-time trading and backtesting .
⏳ Lagging or Leading?
These are lagging indicators , designed to confirm trends—not predict them. MACD 4C’s divergence feature adds a leading element , but it should always be used with structure and price action for confirmation.
🚀 Final Thoughts
If you’re a visual trader who wants more clarity from your momentum tools, MACD 4C is a powerful upgrade. If you prefer simplicity and tradition, the standard MACD still holds its ground.
Try both, test them in your strategy, and see which one sharpens your edge.
BITX — Harmonic Completion: Expression in Time for point ‘D’CBOE:BITX
I wanted to share my concept of fibonacci retracement in time with the community and why I selected the 86.6% retracement of this sell off for point ‘D’ within my harmonic structure with an exit and completion of today.
This was a 45 day sell off after the first ‘W’ price distribution from the top. I always decide on a pivot candle to start my retracement off the impulse rally. Doesn’t matter if it is bullish or bearish by nature. When point ‘B’ was created it extended past the 23.6% value but fell short of 50% where it continued to sell down below the original impulse rally. When CBOE:BITX pivoted at point ‘C’ we had a confirmation of retracement anywhere from .886-1.13 for how I read fibonacci levels.
Next I run the ‘A-B-C Trend-Based Time’ tool and input my extensions. You will find when I build my ‘Fibonacci Triangle’ I run .382-.786 symmetrically in price/time, but for my harmonics I use extension in time to locate my point ‘D’ and pair that with my retracement level. You can see in my chart above that there is daily significance more often than not on these days. I tend to run my X-A-B-C-D tool to the harmonic extension zones in time and track the trend. This example above, it was the 86.6% retracement of a 45 sell off that executed on the 141% value in time from that sell off.
Feel me?
If you like the conversation, drop a boost and give a follow! Let’s talked price and time fibonacci symmetry. I always get down on historical volatility as well with my weighted system to ever sliding IV — Come find me, let’s go!
What Is a Japanese Candlestick Pattern?Japanese candlestick patterns are a popular technical analysis tool used in financial markets such as Forex, stocks, and commodities. Each candlestick represents price movement over a specific time period, showing the opening price, closing price, highest price, and lowest price within that timeframe. The body of the candlestick reflects the price range between the open and close, while the wicks (or shadows) indicate the highest and lowest traded prices. These patterns help traders identify market sentiment, potential trend reversals, and continuation signals by analyzing the shape and arrangement of one or multiple candlesticks. For example, a Hammer pattern may indicate a possible bullish reversal after a downtrend, while an Engulfing pattern shows strong momentum in the direction of the larger candle.
Common candlestick patterns include Doji, which signals market indecision; Hammer and Hanging Man, which point to potential reversals; Engulfing patterns that suggest strong buying or selling pressure; and Shooting Star, which often signals bearish reversal. Mastering these patterns allows traders to make more informed entry and exit decisions, improving their overall trading strategy. However, it’s important to combine candlestick analysis with other technical tools and market context to increase accuracy and reduce false signals.
If you need more information or guidance on analyzing candlestick patterns, feel free to ask. Wishing you successful trading!
Pimp Your Indicators – A Smoothed Take on RSIYou don’t need to reinvent the wheel to find new and effective trading tools. Often, enhancing classic indicators with a few thoughtful modifications can yield surprisingly powerful results. Here’s a simple yet effective way to upgrade the RSI and turn it into a more actionable entry signal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100, providing a measure of upside momentum within a given timeframe. For example, an RSI reading of 60 implies a 60% upside dominance based on recent price action. Traditionally, traders interpret levels above 70 as overbought and below 30 as oversold. However, RSI on its own isn’t reliable as a standalone entry trigger. An overbought reading doesn’t necessarily mean the market is losing strength—it simply indicates recent data reflects a strong upward move.
Smoothed RSI Approaches
To extract more useful signals, we can enhance the RSI in a couple of simple but effective ways:
1. RSI vs. RSIMA (RSI Moving Average):
One approach is to smooth the RSI itself by calculating a moving average of the RSI (call it RSIMA), and then observe the difference between the RSI and its moving average. A positive difference suggests bullish momentum; a negative one, bearish. This approach reduces some noise but can still result in a choppy indicator, as seen in the subplot of the reference chart.
2. RSI on Smoothed Price (RSI5M):
A more refined method involves smoothing the price before calculating RSI. Specifically, apply a 5-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to the price series, then compute the RSI on this smoothed series—let’s call it RSI5M. The key insight is to then analyze the difference between RSI5M and the standard RSI. This difference creates a smoother, more robust signal that better captures market bias.
Why It Works
In uptrends, the EMA(5) smooths out short-term fluctuations and highlights the prevailing trend more clearly than raw price data. As a result, RSI5M tends to rise faster and higher than the standard RSI. The difference between the two becomes positive in uptrends and negative in downtrends, making it a useful gauge of directional momentum. This effect is illustrated in the lower subplot of the reference chart, where the smoothed signal offers a clearer view of market regimes.
Ready-to-Use Script
If you're not into coding, you can explore the public script of the Parsifal.RSI.Trend indicator on TradingView. It implements a slightly refined version of this smoothed RSI differential and provides a clean visual cue for trend bias.
Double Top or… Bearish Dragon?Hello, Traders!
An anatomy of market psychology on the BTC chart…
Sometimes it’s not about what’s next, but what we've already lived through. And this stretch on the Bitcoin (BTC) weekly chart (2021–2022) deserves a second look. What first appears to be a textbook Double Top might, with the right lens, reveal something more… mythical. Let’s break it down 👇
🔍 Double Top: The Obvious Story?
If you zoom in on BTC’s two major peaks — around $64K in April 2021 and $69K in November 2021 — it checks all the boxes: two high points, a clear support line around $30–32K (neckline), and eventually a breakdown that confirmed the pattern. Classic reversal, right? Yes — until you realize it wasn’t just flat repetition, but a structure with more texture and rhythm. This is where the concept of the bearish dragon pattern comes in.
🐉 The Bearish Dragon Trading Pattern
While not part of traditional TA textbooks, the dragon pattern trading model has gained popularity for its ability to capture more nuanced market psychology. In the bearish dragon trading pattern, we get:
Head → The First Push Upward (early 2021)
Left Foot → The First Top
Hump → A Sharp Correction that Builds Tension
Right Foot → A Second, Higher Top (bait for breakout traders)
Entry → The Moment Price Loses Trendline Support
Tail → The Dramatic Drop That Completes the Structure
In this example, BTC followed that script frighteningly well. And while this wasn’t a bullish dragon pattern trading setup (the bullish version mirrors this shape), it still serves as a valuable case study in how these visual patterns capture trader behavior in real time.
⚙️ So What?
Identifying a dragon trading pattern isn't just for artistic flair. These kinds of models reflect moments of emotional whiplash: fake-outs, fear, FOMO — all in one motion. This chart is a masterclass in how structure, sentiment, and supply zones align. And guess what? Even though this pattern completed long ago, some of the zones still matter today — as support, as resistance. Price memory is real. And dragons? Well, they leave footprints. ;)
⚙️ So What?
Identifying a dragon trading pattern isn't just for artistic flair. These kinds of models reflect moments of emotional whiplash: fake-outs, fear, FOMO — all in one motion. This chart is a masterclass in how structure, sentiment, and supply zones align. And guess what? Even though this pattern completed long ago, some of the zones still matter today — as support, as resistance. Price memory is real. And dragons? Well, they leave footprints. ;)
📉 The Classic: Is It Just a Double Top?
Let’s start with the obvious interpretation. What we see on the BTC chart between April and November 2021 checks almost every box of the well-known Double Top — one of the most cited reversal patterns in technical analysis. It’s the kind of formation you’ll find in every trading textbook: two peaks at roughly the same level, separated by a mid-point correction (the "valley"), followed by a breakdown. And in theory, here’s how it plays out.
The first peak, in this case, around $64,000 in April 2021 shows strength, momentum, and enthusiasm. Then comes a pullback which, at first, looks like a healthy correction. Price drops to around $30,000, consolidates, and many consider it a buying opportunity. The second peak, in November 2021, climbs even slightly higher to around $69,000, but this is where things start to feel different. Momentum is weaker. Volume thins out. Retail interest is still there, but it’s more cautious. The hype feels forced.
And then the real turning point. The market loses its footing around $30–32K. That level, which previously acted as strong support, gets broken in early 2022. Not just tested, broken cleanly.
From a purely technical standpoint, that’s the moment the pattern is confirmed. A classic neckline break and with it, the implication that the uptrend is over, and a deeper reversal is underway. In traditional TA, this would be the textbook entry for a short trade, with a target roughly equal to the height from the peaks to the neckline. For BTC, that implied a drop well into the teens. And that’s exactly what happened.
So is this just a clean Double Top and nothing more? Maybe. The pattern fits. The breakdown was real. The projection played out.
What Do You See?
Yeah, this move is behind us, but sometimes it's worth going back to the dragons of the past. Do you see a clean Double Top here or a full-blown Bearish Dragon ready to bite? 🐲 And have you ever used the dragon pattern trading or dragon trading pattern concept in your analysis? Let’s talk patterns in the comments 👇
Understanding the Economic Calendar: A Must-Have Tool for EveryThe economic calendar is an essential tool that helps traders track economic events and indicators that may impact financial markets such as Forex, gold, and stock indices.
Common data listed in the calendar include interest rates, GDP, inflation (CPI), unemployment rates, retail sales, consumer confidence, FOMC minutes, and speeches from central bank officials. Each event shows the release time, the issuing country, detailed content, and an impact rating from low to high. Traders need to check the economic calendar daily to anticipate periods of high market volatility.
For example, when the U.S. releases interest rate decisions or the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, CAPITALCOM:GOLD gold and USD pairs often experience fast and strong price movements. Based on the calendar, traders can avoid trading right before major news to reduce risk, or take advantage of the volatility if they have experience. In addition, the economic calendar supports building medium- and long-term strategies based on economic cycles. Understanding macroeconomic trends allows traders to be more proactive and confident instead of reacting to price movements. Combining the economic calendar with technical analysis improves decision-making and risk management. Traders can access the calendar for free on reputable websites like Forex Factory, Investing, or directly within MT4 and MT5 platforms. This is a must-use tool for anyone aiming to trade professionally and with discipline.
Wishing you success and clarity in every trade.
MT4 User Guide for BeginnersMetaTrader 4 (MT4) is a popular trading platform for Forex and gold markets. To get started, download the software from your broker’s website or install the MT4 app from the App Store or Google Play.
After installation, open the platform and log in using your account number, password, and the server provided by your broker. Once the bottom right corner shows “Connected,” you’re successfully logged in.
The MT4 interface includes: Market Watch (price list), Chart (candlestick chart), Terminal (order management), and Navigator (accounts and indicators). To open a chart, right-click on a symbol in Market Watch and select “Chart Window.” To add technical indicators, go to the Insert menu > Indicators.
To place an order, press F9 or right-click on the chart and choose “New Order,” then enter the volume and select Buy or Sell. You can also set Stop Loss and Take Profit levels if needed. For pending orders, choose the order type under “Pending Order,” set your desired price, and confirm.
To manage your trades, go to the “Trade” tab at the bottom where you can modify or close orders by right-clicking them. Trading history is available under the “Account History” tab.
MT4 supports chart customization, saving templates, and using advanced indicators. It’s a flexible platform suitable for both beginners and experienced traders. Practice regularly to master its features.
Good luck with your trading journey!
BB + VWAP ChatGPT Strategy | With Trailing Stop LossThis strategy was generated with the help of ChatGPT. I used VWAP + Bollinger Bands for entry signals, then implemented a 10% trailing stop using Pine Script v5.
It performed well on TSLA and SPY in 4HR charts, and I’ve shared all code + visuals in this full write-up:
👉 eemanispace.com
Engineering the Hull‑style Exponential Moving Average (HEMA)▶️ Introduction
Hull’s Moving Average (HMA) is beloved because it offers near–zero‑lag turns while staying remarkably smooth. It achieves this by chaining *weighted* moving averages (WMAs), which are finite‑impulse‑response (FIR) filters. Unfortunately, FIR filters demand O(N) storage and expensive rolling calculations. The goal of the Hull‑style Exponential Moving Average (HEMA) is therefore straightforward: reproduce HMA’s responsiveness with the constant‑time efficiency of an EMA, an infinite‑impulse‑response (IIR) filter that keeps only two state variables regardless of length.
▶️ From FIR to IIR – What Changes?
When we swap a WMA for an EMA we trade a hard‑edged window for an exponential decay. This swap creates two immediate engineering challenges. First, the EMA’s centre of mass (CoM) lies closer to the present than the WMA of the same “period,” so we must tune its alpha to match the WMA’s effective lag. Second, the exponential tail never truly dies; left unchecked it can restore some of the lag we just removed. The remedy is to shorten the EMA’s time‑constant and apply a lighter finishing smoother. If done well, the exponential tail becomes imperceptible while the update cost collapses from O(N) to O(1).
▶️ Dissecting the Original HMA
HMA(N) is constructed in three steps:
Compute a *slow* WMA of length N.
Compute a *fast* WMA of length N/2, double it, then subtract the slow WMA. This “2 × fast − slow” operation annihilates the first‑order lag term in the transfer function.
Pass the result through a short WMA of length √N, whose only job is to tame the mid‑band ripple introduced by step 2.
Because the WMA window hard‑cuts, everything after bar N carries zero weight, yielding a razor‑sharp response.
▶️ Re‑building Each Block with EMAs
1. Slow leg .
We choose αₛ = 3 / (2N − 1) .
This places the EMA’s CoM exactly one bar ahead of the WMA(N) CoM, preserving the causal structure while compensating for the EMA’s lingering tail.
2. Fast leg .
John Ehlers showed that two single‑pole filters can cancel first‑order phase error if they keep the ratio τ𝑓 = ln2 / (1 + ln2) ≈ 0.409 τₛ .
We therefore compute α𝑓 = 1 − e^(−λₛ / 0.409) ,
where λₛ = −ln(1 − αₛ).
3. Zero‑lag blend .
Instead of Hull’s integer 2/−1 pair we adopt Ehlers’ fractional weights:
(1 + ln 2) · EMA𝑓 − ln 2 · EMAₛ .
This pair retains unity DC gain and maintains the zero‑slope condition while drastically flattening the pass‑band bump.
4. Finishing smoother .
The WMA(√N) in HMA adds roughly one and a half bars of consequential delay. Because EMAs already smear slightly, we can meet the same lag budget with an EMA whose span is only √N / 2. The lighter pole removes residual high‑frequency noise without re‑introducing noticeable lag.
▶️ Error Budget vs. Classical HMA
Quantitatively, HEMA tracks HMA to within 0.1–0.2 bars on the first visible turn for N between 10 and 50. Overshoot at extreme V‑turns is 25–35 % smaller because the ln 2 weighting damps the 0.2 fs gain peak. Root‑mean‑square ripple inside long swings falls by roughly 15–20 %. The penalty is a microscopic exponential tail: in a 300‑bar uninterrupted trend HEMA trails HMA by about two bars—visually negligible for most chart horizons but easily fixed by clipping if one insists on absolute truncation.
▶️ Practical Evaluation
Side‑by‑side plots confirm the math. On N = 20 the yellow HEMA line flips direction in the same candle—or half a candle earlier—than the blue HMA, while drawing a visibly calmer trace through the mid‑section of each swing. On tiny windows (N ≤ 8) you may notice a hair more shimmer because the smoother’s span approaches one bar, but beyond N = 10 the difference disappears. More importantly, HEMA updates with six scalar variables; HMA drags two or three rolling arrays for every WMA it uses. On a portfolio of 500 instruments that distinction is the difference between comfortable real‑time and compute starvation.
▶️ Conclusion
HEMA is not a casual “replace W with E” hack. It is a deliberate reconstruction: match the EMA’s centre of mass to the WMA it replaces, preserve zero‑lag geometry with the ln 2 coefficient pair, and shorten the smoothing pole to offset the EMA tail. The reward is an indicator that delivers Hull‑grade responsiveness and even cleaner mid‑band behaviour while collapsing memory and CPU cost to O(1). For discretionary traders wedded to the razor‑sharp V‑tips of the original Hull, HMA remains attractive. For algorithmic desks, embedded systems, or anyone streaming thousands of symbols, HEMA is the pragmatic successor—almost indistinguishable on the chart, orders of magnitude lighter under the hood.
Smart Entry into the Wheel Using a Credit Put Spread on QQQSmart Entry into the Wheel Strategy Using a Credit Put Spread on QQQ
⚠️ ⚠️ Warning and Disclaimer⚠️⚠️:
This strategy is a trading concept and not financial advice. All traders must conduct their own research and accept full responsibility for the risks involved. While NASDAQ:QQQ is considered a high-quality ETF, options trading always carries the potential for capital loss.
Market Context & Strategic Outlook
Assuming the weekly gap in QQQ gets filled, we may see a temporary correction to around $488 , followed by a quick recovery and potential consolidation near $500 , assuming no new negative catalysts. While I remain skeptical of the market staying perfectly stable, this scenario provides an opportunity for a strategically structured option play with reasonable reward and manageable risk.
If you're planning to acquire 100 shares of QQQ or have the buying power to do so, this strategy can offer a smart and flexible way to enter a long-term position while generating short-term income.
Strategy Concept: Credit Put Spread as Wheel Entry
Prerequisites:
Buying Power: $50,000+
Ideal Market Conditions: Short-term weakness followed by stabilization
Expiration: ~7 Days to Expiry (DTE), depending on volatility and setup
Option Positions Initial Credit Put Spread
Sell QQQ $500 Put
Buy QQQ $498 Put
Net Delta: Less than 0.03
Note: Short strike must be at $500 to set the stage for assignment and wheel initiation.
Management Phases
Stage 1: Entry via Credit Put Spread
- Sell the vertical spread with the intention of owning QQQ.
- If QQQ falls below $500 , close or roll the long $498 put to a lower strike with delta < 0.15.
- Upon expiration:
Let the short put assign, or
Buy the 100 shares outright and close the short leg before the market closes.
Model Virtualization
Alternative (managing risk with rolling down the long put)
Model Virtualization
Goal: Own QQQ at a slightly discounted price, with reduced initial cost due to premium received.
Stage 2: Transition to Covered Call
- After assignment or manual purchase, sell a covered call:
Target DTE ≈ 7 days
Delta ≈ -0.45
Strike price must be ≥ $500
If not available, sell the short call at $500 strike.
Model Virtualization
This generates weekly income while holding the shares, allowing the strategy to compound returns.
Stage 3: Exit or Continue Wheel
- If the call expires worthless, repeat the covered call sale weekly.
- If assigned early, welcome it as it accelerates capital rotation.
- You may also manually unwind the position on expiration if near max profit or market conditions shift.
Model Virtualization
Strategic Rationale
This strategy is a more dynamic and risk-managed version of the traditional Wheel. Rather than starting with a fully cash-secured put, we use a credit put spread for entry, offering a buffer against a steep drop with lower upfront margin.
Why Not Just Sell the Put?
A credit put spread offers:
Defined risk
Lower buying power requirement
Better capital efficiency if the price declines sharply
When NOT to Use This Strategy
If QQQ is expected to trade in a narrow range with minimal volatility, avoid this approach. Instead, consider:
Butterfly or Iron Condor setups with DTE ~12 days
Calendar spreads to benefit from sideways action
Risk and Reward Assessment
Risk and Reward Assessment, Outcome Scenarios
Scenario 1: Price stays above $500
Outcome: Credit put spread expires worthless
Estimated Profit: ~$150
ROI: Approx. 0.3% on $50,000 buying power
Note: No shares are acquired; premium is kept
Scenario 2: Price drops below $500 but recovers
Outcome: Assigned 100 shares, enter covered call phase
Estimated Profit (3 weeks total): ~$800–$1,200
ROI: Approx. 2%
Note: Ideal wheel cycle if managed properly
Scenario 3: Price drops and stays low
Outcome: Maximum loss on the credit put spread
Estimated Profit: -$160
Note: This occurs if the spread expires in-the-money and is unmanaged
This strategy aims not to harvest credit, but to secure a better entry into a long-term equity position.
Caution on Risk
While QQQ is a fundamentally strong ETF, a sharp decline could lock your capital or increase unrealized losses. Liquidity risk which needs that cash for other purposes is the biggest concern.
Mitigation Tip: Consider using a collar strategy (buying protective puts) to hedge against large drawdowns post-assignment.
Stop Loss?
For long-term investors in QQQ, a traditional stop-loss is less critical. But if you're more tactical or capital-sensitive, protecting the downside with a collar is a reasonable move.
Final Thoughts
This approach offers a sophisticated entry into the "Wheel" strategy, additionally, it balances risk, reward, and capital efficiency. Whether the market pulls back or holds steady, you’re either:
Earning premium while staying in cash, or
Entering a high-quality equity position at a better price and generating income weekly.
Thank you for reading. Wish you a successful options trading!
Popular Trading Styles in ForexHere are some common trading styles used in the Forex market:
Trend Following: Traders identify and follow the main market trend, buying in an uptrend and selling in a downtrend.
Reversal Trading: Traders look for points where the trend may reverse and enter positions against the current trend.
Range Trading: Traders buy near support and sell near resistance when the price moves within a defined range.
News Trading: Traders capitalize on strong market movements following major economic news releases.
Scalping: Traders open and close trades very quickly, aiming to profit from small price movements.
Swing Trading: Traders hold positions from several days to weeks, taking advantage of short-term price swings within a larger trend.
Technical Analysis Trading: Decisions are based on indicators, price patterns, and volume analysis.
Fundamental Analysis Trading: Traders analyze economic and political factors affecting currency values to make trading decisions.
If you have any questions or need further explanation on any style, feel free to ask.
Good luck and happy trading!
Artavion Analysts Forecast Bitcoin to Reach $100,000 by End of MThe analytical company Artavion has released an updated forecast for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of May 2025. According to the experts, amid sustained institutional demand and limited supply following the recent halving, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could reach $100,000 in the coming days.
Key Growth Drivers
Analysts highlight several factors contributing to Bitcoin's price growth:
📈 Institutional Demand: Ongoing accumulation by investment funds and banks through spot ETFs approved in the U.S. and Asia.
⛏ Reduced Supply: The April halving has decreased miner rewards, limiting daily BTC issuance.
🇺🇸 Fed Policy Easing: Expectations of interest rate cuts are increasing demand for alternative assets, including crypto.
💼 Market Confidence: Growth in long-term holders and increasing BTC withdrawals from exchanges indicate a “HODLing” trend among investors.
Company Comment
"We are witnessing stable accumulation and a capital shift into digital assets. If markets avoid major shocks, Bitcoin has every chance to consolidate above $95,000 and briefly test the psychological barrier of $100,000," said Alexey Gurov, senior strategist at Artavion.
Potential Risks
Despite the optimistic outlook, analysts point out several risks that could impact the forecast:
📉 Unexpected macroeconomic data (e.g., rising inflation, stronger U.S. dollar);
⚠️ Regulatory actions from the SEC or other global bodies;
🌍 Escalation of geopolitical tensions, which could trigger risk-off sentiment.
Conclusion
Considering the current market environment and macroeconomic expectations, Artavion maintains a positive short-term outlook for Bitcoin through the end of May, while cautioning investors to remain aware of the sector’s inherent volatility and risk.
#AN001: Geopolitical Situations and Forex Impact
Hi, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about how the recent geopolitical turmoil is impacting global currency markets. In this week of May 2025, significant events are shaking up the global economic and political balance, with direct repercussions on Forex.
Geopolitical Overview: Rising Tensions
India-Pakistan Crisis
Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, which left 25 Indian tourists dead, relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated rapidly. Artillery exchanges along the Line of Control, diplomatic expulsions and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty characterized the following weeks. Although a ceasefire was reached on May 10, the situation remains volatile, with significant impacts on air traffic and regional trade routes.
Wikipedia
Iran-US Nuclear Stalemate
The nuclear talks between Iran and the United States are at a standstill. Tehran refuses to stop enriching uranium and negotiate on its missile program, while Washington insists on these conditions. Iran, under economic pressure from sanctions, may seek support from China and Russia, although these allies face their own geopolitical challenges.
Reuters
"Golden Dome" and US Trade Policies
President Donald Trump has announced the "Golden Dome" project, a $175 billion missile defense system inspired by Israel's Iron Dome. Meanwhile, protectionist US trade policies are generating uncertainty in global markets, with the European Union proposing a "Buy European" strategy to strengthen the bloc's economic autonomy.
The Times of India
Financial Times
FX Impacts: Currency Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Downside Pressure
The euro is under pressure due to trade tensions with the US and domestic economic uncertainties. Proposals to reform public procurement and European defense initiatives could affect investor sentiment. The ECB has highlighted risks to financial stability arising from these tensions.
USD/JPY: Yen Safe Haven
Amid global uncertainty, the Japanese yen is strengthening as a safe haven currency. Tensions in the Middle East and US policies are pushing investors towards safer assets, supporting the yen’s appreciation.
GBP/USD: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship
The UK, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is seeking to re-establish closer relations with the European Union, without rejoining the bloc. This pragmatic strategy could reduce economic uncertainty and positively impact sterling in the medium term.
USD/CAD: Influence of Oil Prices
The Canadian dollar is affected by fluctuations in oil prices, influenced by uncertainties in the Iran-US negotiations and tensions in Ukraine. Canada's dependence on energy exports makes the CAD sensitive to these developments.
Nasdaq Level 3 Behavior MAAWKey Trapping Techniques
• False Breakouts (above M or below W pattern)
• Session Open Spikes (especially NY open or London open)
• News Traps (spike during news, then reversal after)
⸻
3. TIMING: WHEN TO EXPECT LEVEL 3 MOVES
Look for session overlap (London/NY) — that’s often where the Level 3 “move away” happens.
⸻
4. WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Here’s your sniper checklist:
Before Entry
• Clear M or W pattern (preferably over 3 sessions)
• 3 levels or signs of MM cycle (Level 1, 2 already done)
• Price at ADR High/Low
• EMA Alignment (5/13 cross for confirmation)
• TDI Confirmation (green cross red, volatility band bounce)
• High Volume Candle showing shift
• Price is not at mid-range, but at extremes
⸻
5. WHAT TO AVOID
• Entering during consolidation
• Trading Level 1 (accumulation = trap zone)
• Trading directly at news time (wait for spike/reaction)
• Ignoring ADR (if ADR is already complete, expect reversal)
• Entering too early before confirmation candle
• Big stop losses — you want sniper entries with tight stops
Step 1: Mark the Previous Day’s High/Low
• Use ADR to mark extremes
• Expect stop hunt near these levels
Step 2: Identify M/W Forming
• Look for 3 peaks/bottoms
• Wait for the final push and reversal
Step 3: Watch Session Opens
• London/NY open is often the trigger zone
• Observe price action closely 15–30 mins after open
Step 4: Wait for Confirmation
• Engulfing / Pin bar / Rejection candle
• 5 & 13 EMA cross
• TDI green crossing red & bouncing off band or base
• Align with 800 EMA and 50 EMA direction
Step 5: Enter the Trade
• Enter at or near confirmation candle close
• Stop loss: Just outside the trap wick (10–20 pips)
• Take profit: 1:3 or ride with trailing stop
⸻
7. BONUS: HIDDEN TRICKS
• Draw M/Ws on the 5M but validate them on the 15M
• Use the 800 EMA to see where the overall bias is
• Mark the 1st leg of M/W — wait for trap above/below
• Timing matters more than signals — don’t force entries outside session windows
Disclaimer:
This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or an investment recommendation. I do not offer any financial services or paid mentorship. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
Market Structure Shift Meaning and Use in ICT TradingMarket Structure Shift Meaning and Use in ICT Trading
In ICT (Inner Circle Trader) trading, understanding Market Structure Shifts (MSS) is crucial for accurately interpreting market trends and making informed trading decisions. This article delves into the significance of MSS, its distinct indicators, and how it integrates with other trading elements like Breaks of Structure and Changes of Character.
Understanding Breaks of Structure and Change of Character
Comprehending the dynamics of Breaks of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) can be crucial for analysing market trends. A Break of Structure occurs when price levels move beyond established support or resistance areas, indicating a potential continuation or acceleration of the current trend. For example, in an uptrend, a BOS is identified when prices break above a previous resistance level, suggesting further upward movement.
Conversely, a Change of Character signifies a possible shift in the market's direction. This occurs when the price action breaks against the prevailing trend, challenging the recent high or low points that served as market barriers. A CHoCH often raises a red flag about the sustainability of the current trend. For instance, in a sustained uptrend, a CHoCH would be marked by a significant downward breach that violates a previous low point, hinting at a weakening of bullish momentum.
Both BOS and CHoCH are pivotal in the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology, where they are used to gauge market sentiment and potential shifts in trend dynamics. Traders monitor these patterns to adjust their strategies, whether to capitalise on the continuation signalled by a BOS or prepare for a trend reversal suggested by a CHoCH.
What Is a Market Structure Shift?
MSS, meaning a Market Structure Shift, is an indicator of a significant change in the prevailing trend, marked by a series of patterns that suggest a reversal is imminent. An ICT MSS is more than a simple Change of Character (CHoCH); it includes additional signals that strengthen the case for a directional change.
The process begins with a shift in market structure that fails to sustain the ongoing trend. For example, during an uptrend, the market might fail to make a new higher high, instead forming a lower high. This initial deviation raises a caution flag about the trend’s strength.
The confirmation of an MSS in trading occurs when there is a decisive break of a significant swing point, accompanied by a strong impulse move that deeply penetrates through this point, known as a displacement. This displacement is critical—it’s not merely a slight breach but a robust move that clearly indicates a shift.
In essence, an MSS signals that the current market momentum has not only paused but is likely reversing. For traders, this is a pivotal moment: the lower highs in an uptrend or the higher lows in a downtrend prior to the break suggest that a new opposite trend is starting to take shape.
How to Use a Market Structure Shift in Trading
An MSS ultimately serves as a directional tool. It helps traders understand when a potential trend reversal is underway, enabling them to align their strategies with the new market direction.
To effectively use an MSS in trading, traders often follow these steps:
- Observing Current Market Structure: They start by analysing the existing trend direction and key price levels. Understand whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement by identifying patterns of higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.
- Watching for a Break in Key Levels: The core of an MSS is the break of an important high or low, combined with a sharp price movement that breaches a significant swing point (displacement).
- Confirming with News Releases: MSS often coincides with major economic announcements or news releases that can affect market sentiment significantly. For example, if there's a report indicating unexpectedly high US inflation rates, and this correlates with a sharp downward movement in EURUSD, it provides additional confirmation of the MSS. A stronger dollar against the euro, in this case, would signal a clear shift in market direction towards favouring the dollar.
By recognising these elements, traders can more confidently anticipate and adapt to changes in market direction. A well-identified MSS not only indicates a pause in the current trend but also the establishment of a new trend.
Using Market Structure Shifts With Other ICT Components
Using Market Structure Shifts with other Inner Circle Trader methodology components like break of structure, order blocks, and fair value gaps may enhance a trader's ability to interpret and react to market dynamics.
Integrating MSS with ICT Market Structure
An MSS identifies a potential reversal in the market’s direction. When an MSS occurs, it often leads to the formation of a new high-low range in the direction of the new trend. For example, if a bearish MSS results in a new lower high and lower low, traders can watch for a BOS of this range. A retracement back inside of the new range can signal a decent area to search for an entry to ride the trend that’s just beginning.
Utilising Order Blocks and Fair Value Gaps
However, there are scenarios where the price doesn’t establish a new high-low range but instead returns to the area where the original displacement occurred. This displacement often leaves behind a fair value gap and an order block.
- Fair Value Gap: This is a price range that the market skips over quickly during a displacement, leaving it untested by typical market trading. It often acts like a vacuum, drawing the price back to fill in the gap at a later stage.
- Order Block: An order block is typically a consolidation area that precedes a strong price move and is considered a footprint left by institutional traders. It represents levels where significant buying or selling occurred, potentially acting as support or resistance in future price movements.
If the price returns to fill a fair value gap and enters the order block, this scenario can provide a potent setup for a reversal. Traders might look for confirmatory signals at these levels to enter trades that anticipate the market returning to its previous course or extending the reversal initiated by the MSS.
The Bottom Line
The insights provided on MSS and its application within the ICT trading framework can be instrumental for any trader seeking to navigate the complexities of the market effectively. To put these strategies into practice and potentially improve your trading outcomes, practice a lot and learn more about ICT trading.
FAQs
What Is a Market Structure Shift?
A Market Structure Shift (MSS) indicates a potential reversal in market trends, marked initially by a lower high in an uptrend or a higher low in a downtrend, followed by a displacement—a significant and rapid price movement that decisively breaks through a key market level.
How to Identify Market Structure Shift?
Identifying an MSS involves observing for early signs of trend weakening (lower highs or higher lows) and waiting for a subsequent displacement that confirms the shift. This displacement should significantly penetrate a key swing point, clearly indicating a new direction in market momentum.
What Is the ICT Method of Trading?
The ICT (Inner Circle Trader) method of trading is a comprehensive approach that utilises various trading concepts such as market structure, order blocks, and fair value gaps, focusing on how institutional traders influence the market. It emphasises understanding and leveraging these components to align trading strategies with probable market movements.
What Is the Difference Between MSS and BOS in ICT?
In ICT, a Market Structure Shift (MSS) refers to a potential trend reversal, confirmed by a lower high/higher low followed by a displacement. A Break of Structure (BOS), however, simply indicates the continuation or acceleration of the current trend without necessarily suggesting a reversal, marked by the breach of a key high or low point within the ongoing trend direction.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Beneath the Blocks: The Real Tech That Powers CryptoCrypto is more than coins and charts. That’s the surface most traders never look beyond.
It's a stack of revolutionary technologies working together to build the future of finance, data, and trust.
But if you’re serious about understanding crypto’s long-term value—or timing its major shifts—you need to grasp what lies beneath.
Here’s your deep-dive into the true foundations of the crypto ecosystem:
🔸 1. DeFi (Decentralized Finance)
DeFi is crypto’s answer to traditional banking—without banks.
Instead of loan officers or custodians, you interact with smart contracts that handle everything from borrowing, lending, to trading.
Protocols like Aave, Compound, and Uniswap allow users to earn interest, provide liquidity, or borrow assets— permissionlessly.
No KYC. No intermediaries. Just wallets and smart contracts.
Total Value Locked (TVL) across DeFi platforms has been a major leading indicator for altcoin seasons.
📚 Why it matters: DeFi is crypto's real-world use case—and its biggest battleground for regulation.
🔸 2. Proof of Work (PoW)
PoW is Bitcoin’s original consensus mechanism.
It secures the network by requiring miners to solve complex math problems (hashes). Whoever solves the block gets rewarded with BTC.
This is energy-intensive, but it’s what makes Bitcoin nearly impossible to attack.
It aligns incentives: miners secure the network in return for rewards.
📚 Why it matters: PoW is the most proven security model in crypto—but it’s also under pressure for its energy costs.
🔸 3. Proof of Stake (PoS)
PoS replaces miners with validators—chosen based on how much crypto they “stake” (lock up) as collateral.
Used by Ethereum 2.0, Solana, Avalanche, Cardano, and many others.
It’s energy-efficient and enables faster, cheaper transactions.
Validators get rewarded in native tokens (e.g., ETH) for proposing and verifying blocks.
📚 Why it matters: PoS is scalable and green, but centralization risks arise if large players control too much stake.
🔸 4. Energy Consumption
PoW networks like Bitcoin consume significant electricity due to mining.
Critics argue this is wasteful.
Proponents argue it's essential for decentralized security and global financial sovereignty.
Solutions being explored:
Renewable-powered mining
Off-grid operations
Transitioning to PoS (as Ethereum did)
📚 Why it matters: Sustainability is a battleground narrative—especially as institutional adoption grows.
🔸 5. Hash (Hash Function)
A hash is a one-way cryptographic function that transforms any input (a transaction or block) into a fixed-length output.
Bitcoin uses SHA-256.
Changing just one character in the input changes the entire hash—making tampering obvious.
📚 Why it matters: Hashes secure every block, transaction, and address—forming the cryptographic backbone of all blockchains.
🔸 6. Smart Contracts
Smart contracts are self-executing agreements written in code, deployed on-chain.
“If X happens, do Y.” No lawyers, no third parties.
Enabled NFTs, DeFi, DAOs, and much more.
Popular platforms:
Ethereum (Solidity)
Solana, Avalanche, BNB Chain, etc.
📚 Why it matters: Smart contracts are what make blockchains programmable. This is the difference between BTC (digital gold) and ETH (Web3 platform).
🔸 7. Distributed Ledger
A distributed ledger is a database that is shared, synchronized, and accessible across multiple nodes.
Every node stores a full copy of the blockchain.
Consensus ensures all copies are aligned.
Immutable: You can only add to it, not edit or delete.
📚 Why it matters: This is what decentralization looks like. No single point of failure. Trust is built into the architecture.
🔸 8. Blockchain Technology
Think of blockchain as a chain of blocks, where each block stores transaction data and a hash of the previous block.
It’s:
Transparent: Anyone can audit it.
Secure: Tampering with one block invalidates the chain.
Decentralized: Run by thousands of nodes worldwide.
📚 Why it matters: Blockchain is the foundational tech. Coins come and go—but the architecture is the real revolution.
💡 Nerdy Tip:
Don’t just trade what you see. Learn what drives it.
The real edge in crypto comes from understanding the mechanics—before they show up in price action.
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
Decoding Momentum with Precision: Absolute Strength HistogramMomentum is more than just a buzzword—it’s the pulse of price action. The Absolute Strength Histogram v2 is a powerful open-source indicator that brings that pulse to life, helping traders visualize the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears with clarity and precision.
In this post, we’ll explore how this tool works, how we use it at Xuantify, and how you can integrate it into your own trading strategy to sharpen your edge.
🔍 What Is the Absolute Strength Histogram ?
Originally developed by jiehonglim , this indicator is a refined version of the classic Absolute Strength Histogram. It measures the relative strength of buyers and sellers and plots it as a color-coded histogram.
Key Features:
Color-coded bars to reflect bullish or bearish dominance
Clear visual cues for trend strength and exhaustion
Helps identify trending vs. ranging market conditions
Open-source and customizable
Unlike traditional oscillators, this histogram doesn’t just show overbought or oversold—it shows who’s in control , and how strongly.
🧠 How We Use It at Xuantify
At Xuantify, we use the Absolute Strength Histogram as a momentum confirmation tool within our multi-layered trading models. Here’s how:
1. Trend Confirmation
We look for alignment between price structure and histogram color. For example, if price breaks structure to the upside and the histogram turns green and rising, that’s a strong confirmation of bullish momentum.
2. Divergence Detection
When price makes a new high but the histogram prints a lower high, it signals momentum divergence —a potential early warning of reversal.
3. Range Filtering
Flat or alternating histogram bars often indicate a ranging market . We avoid trend trades during these periods and instead look for mean-reversion setups.
🧩 New: Pivot High/Low Overlay for Reversal Clarity
To make the Absolute Strength Histogram even more actionable, we’ve added a custom Pivot High/Low indicator that visually marks key swing points on the chart. This addition helps traders clearly see how the histogram behaves before, during, and after reversals .
Below an example of HTF 4H used as stronger trade confirmation:
Why this matters:
It highlights where momentum shifts align with structural turning points
It helps validate divergence signals from the histogram
It makes backtesting and visual analysis much easier
How to use it:
Watch for histogram color or slope changes near pivot highs/lows
Look for divergence between price and histogram at these pivots
Use the pivot zones as potential entry or exit points when confirmed by momentum
🔄 Does It Repaint?
One of the most common concerns with momentum indicators is whether they repaint —meaning they change past values based on future price action. The Absolute Strength Histogram is designed to be non-repainting .
Once a histogram bar is printed, it remains fixed, making it suitable for real-time decision-making and reliable backtesting . This gives traders confidence that what they see on the chart is what actually happened in the moment—not a hindsight illusion.
⚙️ Settings That Matter
The indicator comes with several adjustable parameters, but one of the most impactful is the “Indicator Method” setting.
Our recommendation:
Set Indicator Method = STOCHASTIC for smoother, more responsive signals
This setting tends to reduce noise and better capture momentum shifts
It works especially well in combination with structure-based entries
Other useful settings include:
Length – Controls the sensitivity of the histogram
Smoothing – Helps reduce choppiness in volatile markets
Color thresholds – Customize visual cues for easier interpretation
⚙️ Best Combinations with This Indicator
To maximize its effectiveness, we combine the Absolute Strength Histogram v2 with:
Market Structure Tools – Like BOS/CHOCH from LuxAlgo Smart Money Concepts
Volume Profile – To confirm strength around key volume nodes
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – For precision entries when histogram confirms direction
RSI or Stochastic – For additional momentum or exhaustion confirmation
This layered approach helps us filter out noise and focus only on high-conviction trades .
⚠️ What to Watch Out For
No indicator is perfect. The Absolute Strength Histogram can sometimes lag slightly in fast-moving markets. It’s best used as a confirmation tool , not a standalone signal generator.
Also, in low-volume or choppy conditions, the histogram may give mixed signals. Always combine it with structure and context.
🚀 Final Thoughts
The Absolute Strength Histogram is a clean, intuitive, and powerful tool for traders who want to see momentum clearly . Whether you’re a trend trader, scalper, or swing strategist, this indicator can help you stay on the right side of the market.
At Xuantify, we’re all about combining simplicity with precision. This tool fits that philosophy perfectly.
Add it to your chart, test it, and see how it sharpens your edge.