chinawildman

chinawildman

Might make this one a core position over the coming months... 200 month moving average tested successfully once already.

chinawildman

Behold the darling of the MSOs, GTBIF looks to be building a textbook Wycoff bottom... I believe we are early-to mid phase B. Ignore the timeframes and pay more attention to direction, levels, and volume. "Phase B: In Wyckoffian analysis, Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend (see Wyckoff Law #2 – “Cause and Effect”). In Phase B,...

chinawildman

buying for the value here... massive monthly volume candle. Possible reversal here around all time lows. Potential end of a 7 swing correction but not banking on it... pun intended.

chinawildman Updated 

Notice the similarities between the 1st leg of the current correction on the daily chart compared to the entire correction on the weekly. Similar divergence in RSI on each timeframe. Similar strong intraday reversal bounce to start the current leg up. Bears are all ubiquitously calling for a lower low. Longs are all looking for signs of capitulation. It's...

chinawildman

That's what I like to say about taking my 4 and 2 year old out to eat... things could be going swimmingly and we might even say "hey we should do this more often!". That is of course until the inevitable meltdown and everything goes to $hit. That's kinda how I feel about the market right now. Those that have been following my posts know that I've been projecting...

chinawildman

Once again I will compare ARKK to the NDX 2000 bubble chart. RSI on weekly are divergent and a bounce can be expected soon. NDX lost 82+% of its value at its bottom. ARKK being more heavily leveraged towards risk will likely take a deeper dive than that but we're close. Technology isn't going away folks. Those that remember the turn of the millennium the...

chinawildman Updated 

Taking a quick gander at the log chart and we can see that if we match the magnitude of the first major correction (-85% from peak to trough) we complete this downward move around psychological support at 10k. Due to the parabolic impulsive post pandemic move in '20 from 10000 to 36000, I expect that we will consolidate and stay rangebound in this zone for the...

chinawildman Updated 

Several good signals from the past 2 months: Actual legislation being passed on the federal level... signs of price action detachment from broader S&P... greatly increased volume compared to any time during selloff. My bullish case is that I expect a final 5th wave surge to around 17.50+ followed by a period of consolidation for wave 2 with an eventual parabolic...

chinawildman

The gray overlay is an exact day for day clone of the period from oct '18 to feb '21, the last bearish cycle. Notice the correlation of local inflection points, right down to the week where short term trends shift. If this pattern stays true then we could be seeing a local low early-mid january followed by a strong impulsive wave 5 into the $25+ area into...

chinawildman

I'm a buyer below this green line. Since this turd plummeted through the 200 DMA it hasn't managed to touch it again... I think that will change w the next rally. (I believe the S&P will retrace to ~3700 then to 4150+ to conclude this B wave Right now a buy in the single digits and psychological support around $10 makes sense to me and/or a buy when SPX retests...

chinawildman

Looks like a good bet for a short term bounce here in the next several months. Hitting a consolidation zone where demand should be strong and long positions will be defended. Weekly RSI is crazy oversold.

chinawildman

Looks to me starting to pop out of demand zone. Would not be surprised to see a fakeout earnings reaction where it starts deep red w/ a strong intraday recovery. A break of this diagonal pattern would signify a retest of the 100MMA that was broken months ago so 160s is on the table for next bear market rally.

chinawildman

Expecting this correction to be a seven swing move downwards like the 2000 dotcom bubble. Also expecting "The Great Reset" to be a flat corrective pattern that results in a double top that takes the better half of this decade to resolve itself. The market's dependence on Fed policy isn't something that's going to just unwind itself in a year's time. There needs to...

chinawildman Updated 

How low it goes nobody knows... except I think TCNNF will bottom around $11-12. See wave count of what I believe to be an extended C wave and the 3 WXY waves I spot as subdivisions of the ending wave C diagonal. Each subdivision has Y being a measured move of W so expecting the same for (v) putting target at $12. Wave (iii) also cannot be shortest wave so wave (v)...

chinawildman

Pretty soon you'll be able to buy bitcoin at 2017 prices... The 1.236 extension is a good starting point to accumulate for what I think will be a significant upcoming bounce later in the year. Will accumulate from 19000 - 12000. This range would represent a 70-80% decline from the peak, typical range for a wave II corrective structure. Whether that is the case...

chinawildman

Capitulation occurs when an important support level seems ultimately inevitable and technical traders cancel all their buy orders above that level and shift them down to that support level. The lack of demand above those levels leads to accelerated momentum and the eventual "waterfall" near most local bottoms coupled w/ maximum fear and a spike in the VIX. I don't...

chinawildman Updated 

Daily RSI of 12.98... this thing is beyond oversold. I think the trailing P/E is at 1.5? I believe pot stocks in general are going to start rounding out a bottom soon, and this MSO is great value right now. Despite pot stocks having questionable margins and future timelines, they ARE profitable under very unfavorable regulatory conditions that can only improve....

chinawildman

Still looking for that 15 minutes of crazy capitulation and volume but at these levels we've got a .618 retrace back to the 200 day moving average. Currently a smidge away from a .786 retrace of the entire post pandemic run and already back to prepandemic levels. A halt to the Ukraine conflict could easily put this thing back in the high 50s. Again... wars are...