Nocturne83

Nocturne83

Everyone is currently bullish on commodities and especially Crude oil. Is the trade getting crowded? Looking back in the chart, we can clearly see a major previous top from 2018 taking place in October. Also, the ascending wedge is a bearish formation, but needs confirmation with the pattern breaking through the lower trendline from march 2020. As for now,...

Nocturne83 Updated 

There was a significant shift in momentum last monday as the Evergrande debacle hit the stock markets globally. The S&P500 broke its long term up-trendline and also the 20 and 50 DMA, which have acted as support during this entire bull-run. Everytime we have touched the 50 DMA especially, it has been a great buying opportunity. So what has changed? First, a...

Nocturne83

OBX is setting up a beautiful equilibrium pattern which can break either way. Cautious traders can buy / sell the support / resistance breaks, others can trade the formation itself. Good luck!

Nocturne83 Updated 

APHA is consolidating and has formed another bullish flag. The previous flag broke up and met it`s target perfectly. Now we are looking for another move higher. There is slight bullish divergence in the RSI on the 4 hr chart. Look for signs of failing under $12. Good luck!

Nocturne83

Could the DXY break out from this huge falling wedge pattern? The markets started correcting yesterday, and it will get uglier should the dollar rally from here. However, there was a similar set up earlier and that just led to a bear flag kind of thing were the DXY went lower so all bets are still off, but this is looking interesting.

Nocturne83 Updated 

S&P E-mini Futures is in an ascending wedge pattern on the daily timeframe. This pattern can also be found on other time frames if one should prefer the weekly for example. A break below 3130, and consequently another candle close below this level on high volume would confirm the break. The measured move for this pattern is easily 25% to the downside, perhaps...

Nocturne83 Updated 

Since the index closely follows the price of Crude oil (which is in a similar pattern), I expect some pullback at these levels. First target is around 740, then 715. 700 is the line in the sand in terms of keeping the uptrend going. (Note that the formation is a fractal of a bigger wedge playing out on the weekly timeframe).

Nocturne83 Updated 

Although I am a technical trader, the fundamentals helped me keep my conviction and my bearish positions through this market rally. The most important thing to remember is to gather as much information as possible and base your actions on facts, not emotions. The OBX indeks has broken down from a rising channel / symmetrical triangle. The measured move for this...

Nocturne83

S&P Futures had a weak bounce and has formed a bearflag on the hourly chart. Currently trying to break said flag. If volume picks up, this could get ugly!

Nocturne83

I have been tracking this ascending wedge pattern since early april, it is similar to the one in other major indicies. I expect one final leg up since there is a bull-flag forming on lower timeframes, and a spike up to the 722-725 level to fill the gap (look left). Then, if it rejects from this level (which also corresponds to 0.618 on fib), it should be able to...

Nocturne83 Updated 

The action in Bitcoin (the past couple of days have been choppy to say the least. Are we gonna break up or down? Looking at the overall pattern on a smaller timeframe, we can see that we have clear resistance levels to break to the upside, while there is steady accumulation from the bottom. What does this mean? Typical for ascending triangle patterns, they...

Nocturne83

BTC might form an inverted HS pattern on the 4 hr timeframe. The neckline is at 6550ish - if we break this level, it should trigger a squeeze of some of the short positions. Also note the 14 day EMA is about to cross the 26 day EMA. This is a rare occurrence and I urge you to look at what happened the last time this happened. RSI is testing support and MACD is...

Nocturne83 Updated 

Bitcoin is finally making a bounce, albeit it being a weak one. I expect us to retest the exponential moving averages and reject from these on the daily timeframe. This will create the right shoulder in a giant head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around $6k. Should this come to pass, we will soon see sub $6k BTC - perhaps within the next week or so.

Nocturne83

What's up guys. Had a crazy busy week not paying attention to charts or crypto but now I'm finally back to see what's up. So not a lot has happened with BTC over the weekend. As you can see here we have two trendlines that are respected, both in white. We broke down from the first one and tested it from the downside and were rejected. However, the bulls stepped up...

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Hi guys! Congrats to the bulls for the amazing run to 9k! Now comes the real test. The trendline from december is broken but we're not out of the woods just yet. We need to consolidate at these levels to see a break of 9-9.2k. Mind you that there is also a lot of resistance in this area as many have pointed out. SHOULD we break down from here, we would find...

Nocturne83

I see a lot of people still saying we're in a bullmarket and that the bullrun has begun. Well, to have a proper bullrun, you need an uptrend. We are still in a downtrend. I will not make any long plays until we break the downtrend line in the logchart as seen here. It is now currently at 8.5-8.6 give or take. IF we can break this with conviction I will reconsider...

Nocturne83 Updated 

After the last dump BTC has formed a bearflag which is visible on the 1,2,3 and 4 hour. It might take some time to play out, but could also provide a good short oppertunity. The target for the measured move is around 7.6k - and confirmation would be break of the triangle at around 8k. Also, the daily RSI and Stochastics show a reversal in momentum, so I would...

Nocturne83

What's up guys, So BITFINEX:BTCUSD had a nice little correction last night which gave the opportunity for those who missed the first leg to $8260 to get in at sub-$8000. Like I said in yesterday's analysis, we could (and should) see higher prices before we get a bigger correction and resume the bear-trend. I will not go swing-long before we break and...