Excited bulls? For your sake, don't be... just noWe are at a triple top with a low circa 12 VIX max is 5400 before the fall. We will not get what Deutche Bank wants 5500 mark my wordsShortby candlestickninja6
SP500: The Nvidization of the US indices.It is clear that the US indices are inflated based on the boost from the Federal Reserve news. Yesterday three of the US indices closed higher, except for the Russell which closed slightly negative. This comes to reflect that the AI sector seems to be dragging with the magnificent 7 again in this directionality regardless of sectoral scope to all, due to its excess weight relative to the rest of the companies. The fed according to the Bank of America Global Fund manager survey seems to be the only one making the markets hold at highs. This main driver is followed by corporate returns as a key position. The SP500 has returned 5.41% with the average return for the month of May being 2.15%. That Sell in May and Go away feeling seems to be extending at least into June. An annual return of 11.11%, being 24.23% last year and -19.44% the year of the beginning of the Ukrainian war, being positive the two years before this one as well. What a great five years the market has been going with Jerome Powell pulling like the 90’s cycler Indurain on the uphills. The fact that Nvidia is releasing today will also lead the way for that pocket with the Big 3 and the European indices following close behind. Look not so much at the detail but at the AI picture with Microsoft presenting improvements around its AI search engine, and Amazon with its buy orders to Nvidia and its superchips, etc. On the other hand there are Tesla's poor results and the herze company's problem of reselling its vehicles on the used market. Morgan Stanley is also bullish as the leading investment bank is indicating a 20% gain, and only one of its analysts was indicating corrections. It would be necessary to take into account with the future currency of the BRICS+ in relation to the buying/selling towards gold/oil, an environment where money can be defended and the relation of the outflow of dollars from African and Chinese countries against that safe haven element. In other words, a monetary refuge that is sought outside the dollar environment and can trigger the price of gold in the long term as a fundamental element to defend reserves. In the future, we will have to pay attention to these movements on the part of the Brics group and its associates. If we look at the chart, the index is currently in the highs zone again, surpassing yesterday the highs of April 1st. If we look at the RSI, it is currently overbought at 68.34% which could extend a little more forcing the highs zone. Although it is true that the price bell is weighted very strongly at 5,083 points, so it would not be strange to see an initial correction in the direction of the previous price of previous highs. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk. ULongby ActivTrades2
SPx (it looks bullish)SPX500 New Forecast The price is expected to attempt to reach the resistance level at 5360. It may correct down to 5304 before resuming its bullish trend. As long as the price remains above 5320 and 5304, the bullish trend is likely to continue towards 5360. If the price breaks through this level, it is anticipated to reach 5390 and potentially 5480. Pivot Line: 5313 Resistance Levels: 5360, 5390, 5480 Support Levels: 5293, 5266, 5226 Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5281 and the resistance 5360.Longby SroshMayi5
S&P500 INDEX (SPY) Bullish Rally Continues S&P500 broke and closed above the resistance based on the all time high. It opens a potential for a further bullish continuation. I will expect more growth at least until FOMC on Wednesday. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ Longby VasilyTrader114
SPx (Still or Yet...)SP500 Index Forecast The price continues to attempt a correction towards 5281 as long as it trades below 5320. However, overall stability above 5325 would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend towards 5360 and beyond. The bearish scenario will be activated if the price breaks below 5281 and 5266. Pivot Line: 5313 Resistance Levels: 5325, 5340, 5357 Support Levels: 5281, 5263, 5227 Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5264 and the resistance 5370. Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures indicate a 3.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting and a 22.8% chance of a similar cut at the July policy meeting.by SroshMayi6
S&P500 is benefiting from the bearish momentum on DXYHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5250 zone, US500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5250 support and resistance area. Trade safe, Joe.Longby JoeChampion4
SP500 INDEX (Correction Then Continuation)Stocks Set to Open Higher as Investors Await FOMC Minutes and Nvidia Earnings Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Friday that she expects inflation to remain elevated for "some time," but she also anticipates that price pressures will eventually diminish if interest rates are maintained at their current level. Bowman also reiterated that she would not rule out the possibility of raising rates if necessary. "While the current stance of monetary policy appears to be at a restrictive level, I remain willing to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed," she said. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that three regulatory agencies might significantly reduce a planned increase in capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks. According to the report, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and other big bank CEOs lobbied hard, leading the Fed, FDIC, and the Comptroller of the Currency to cut the proposed 20% increase by approximately half potentially. Investors are also closely watching developments in the Middle East following the helicopter crash that resulted in the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the nation’s Foreign Minister. Technically: Currently, the SP500 is undergoing a corrective retracement targeting 5281. At this point, we should monitor whether it breaches 5281 and 5266. Stability below that would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend towards 5226. Conversely, stability above 5281 would signal the potential beginning of a bullish trend. but now stability above 5320 before correction, means will continue the bullish trend to get the targets we mentioned. Pivot Line: 5301 Resistance Levels: 5320, 5340, 5357 Support Levels: 5281, 5263, 5227 Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5264 and the resistance 5370.by SroshMayi6
SPX: overbought momentumThe S&P 500 managed to reach a fresh all time high at 5.322 during the previous week, supported by the market optimism. This was a gain of 1.5% on a weekly level. There are currently several reasons for such a move. Certainly, economic data is currently one of the most watched by the market. Posted inflation data in the US for April, showed that the inflation was moving in line with market expectations, and a bit lower from the March data. This supported market confidence that the first Fed's rate cut might come in September this year. There have also been notes from some Fed officials that the inflation developments in April are perceived positively, however, the Fed will still need more confidence that the inflation will indeed move to the lower grounds in the coming period. On the other side are relatively strong earnings from some companies included in the index of 500 most valued companies in the US. The information technology sectors continue to lead the market, however, the previous week we have seen that the real estate sector is emerging from the period of high pressure due to high interest rates, which was 2.5% higher during the week. Overbought momentum continues to be evident for the index. Some relaxation might be possible in the week ahead, however, the market continues to be highly bullish on the US equities. by XBTFX15
SPX and Presidential Elections [Monthly Chart]Here's taking a look back at the past few presidential cycle and how it correlates with the markets. Despite the meteoric rise of the S&P and making new highs, since the lows of 2022, nothing could have compared with the performance of the SPX during Obama's First year which grew by +106%by laughingchartist2
Top Earnings Growers in the S&P 500 Energy SectorFastest Earnings Growers in the S&P 500 Energy Sector Nearly half the companies in the S&P 500 energy sector are expected to achieve double-digit annual earnings growth. Updated : ConocoPhillips announced its acquisition of Marathon Oil Corp. on Wednesday. Energy stocks are currently undervalued relative to expected earnings, even though the sector has been the best performer in the S&P 500 over the past three years. Last month, we examined all 23 stocks in the S&P 500 energy sector for their returns on invested capital over the previous three years. With Exxon Mobil's recent acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources on May 3, the sector now comprises 22 stocks. Further consolidation is underway, with ConocoPhillips agreeing to acquire Marathon Oil Corp., and Hess Corp. set to be acquired by Chevron Corp. in a $53 billion deal. Sector Valuations and Growth Rates The energy sector remains the least expensive of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, despite its high three-year total return. However, it has the worst 10-year return, reflecting the oil price crash from mid-2014 to early 2016 and investor reluctance to re-engage with the sector. Chip Stocks Dominate S&P 500 for the First Time Chip stocks have surpassed software stocks to hold the largest sector weighting in the S&P 500, reflecting optimism about the semiconductor sector's financial prospects due to artificial intelligence advancements and concerns over budget pressures in the software industry. Strategas strategist Todd Sohn noted that the chip sector's 11% weight in the S&P 500 marked a new high, up from just 2% in early 2014. The combined weight of the top five sectors reached 27%, the highest in 44 years of data. Conversely, the software sector faces challenges, with Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein highlighting delayed deals and cautious spending due to the macroeconomic climate. Salesforce Inc. exemplified these issues, with its stock plummeting after management reduced its forecast and discussed budget scrutiny. Technically analyse: Shortby SroshMayi1
SP500 Wyckoff Spring with Outside Day in the Daily + Cup&HandleThe daily charts offer a Spring setup opportunity while the weekly chart supports that idea with a good-looking Hammer. What is interesting is the Outside Day bar, which comes on a good volume. There is a previous resistance that turns support. The setup is a bit tighter than I'd prefer and makes the risk-to-reward, not the best, but the markets are rarely perfect. This particular setup might also be called a cup and handle pattern by William Oneil's fans. Its target is equal to an important Fib extension level. Longby TheSpringHunter0
Commodities Investment Theme##Macro 1. Inflation Inflation drives commodity prices - for example - oil gas wheat lumber steel. If inflation are stick, gold silver are great hedges, and so far it is not pricing in much as most investors are not holding gold. 2. Interest Rates Lowering rate is good reason to buy commodities, as lower rates weaken fiat currencies and enhance attractiveness of commodities, it also reduce opportunity cost of holding non yielding asset like precious metals. 3. Supply Chain Disruptions Mining storage, increase demands from other sectors like AI, this seems to be the case for now. 4. Geopolitical Tension Russia Ukraine price has rose oil and natural gas price 5. Energy transition, green tech and ai demand 6. Weather related supply shocks - such as agricultural commodities affected from weather prices. (coffee futures) Some examples and explaination of commodities: 1. Coca: Increase in cocoa price is not just supply concerns, robust demand for choco products worldwide is ranked bullish, west africa is most esssential coca producing region in the world and both political instability and bad weather condition hurt crop yields. 2. Orange Juice: Price went up 300% since pandemic started, price rose due to citrus greening disease that has devasted florida orange supplies. 3. Silver Gold 13% move higher in gold can be attributed to lowering rates and foreign government buying, aside from fear from retail investors scared of geopolical conflicts. Copper also have renewed interest due to AI demand and China's economy rebound, but need to pay attention to chinese inventory level to guage price levels. Coming plays: 1. Natty Gas - price was high in 202 due to conflict of war, but now it is likely to rally for meeting the power usage of AI data centers. 2. Lithium - for ESS solutions and EV solutions. Mining could be a challenge that drives up prices, need to research more on mining facility 3. Wheat: Prices higher after Russia Ukraine war but all gains was erased, weather plays a role in this. Stuff to buy: AMEX:USO - oil, AMEX:UGA - gasoline, AMEX:UNG - natural gas AMEX:WEAT - wheat, AMEX:CORN - corn, AMEX:SOYB - soybeans Stocks wise: Energy products services sustainable solutions - SCCO Integrated copper producer: TRGP Midstream natty gass NGL service in US: TSCO Rural lifestyle retailer products: AU GLobal gold mining company in south africa - NEE Clean energy with wind and solar energy producing: VLO by EugeneC000
TIME TO SELL NASDAQ TIME TO SELL NASDAQ Price finally reached weekly bearish selling zone (Akka in Spanish "area de ventas"). I expect a strong sell towards SMA 30 @ W1 changing weekly tendency from strong bullish into strong bearish. TP areas will be triangle cuspid and 50-61.8%Shortby imktads0
US500, support confluence could built bullish momentumWe have a nice confluence of 1H and 4H support at S&P. I'm entering with a long position to potentially follow to new ATHs, if the market sentiment pick up the trend again.Longby KyreanUpdated 0
Powerful compressionIndex is compressing inside symmetrical triangle and going to explode soon In hourly chart index is moving between 1H SMA50 and 1H SMA200 for some time I suppose it will break down because of last bearish engulfing candle on weekly chart by balinorUpdated 3
Combo?Flat + X + Zigzag A downward impulse could be underway to complete a flat pattern, which would be only the first part of a Flat+ZZ combination, so then a zigzag to the upside making a new ATH, so that then a sharp, violent zigzag completes the sideways pattern by August. Or not!...by mikeoakster0
Equities decline after positive inflation responseUS stock indices were drifting lower ahead of Friday’s key Core PCE inflation update. On Thursday, the mid-cap domestically focused Russell 2000 had bucked a negative trend across the major indices. This was another indication that investors are shifting some money out of many of the growth stocks that have led this year’s rally, and into value stocks which look comparatively cheaper. Just under a fortnight ago, the Dow broke above 40,000 to hit a fresh all-time high. It has struggled ever since, and on Thursday came close to falling back below 38,000, an overall decline of 5% in two weeks. After Thursday’s close, it was Dow component Salesforce that was largely responsible for the underperformance thanks to disappointing quarterly results. But this kind of divergence between the major indices has been a feature of this earnings season. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have also lost ground recently but have only fallen around 2.5% each from their record highs. Both have benefited from having NVIDIA as a constituent, reaping the rewards from the chip giant’s rally following its stunning quarterly results on 22nd May. Friday was the last trading session of the month, and despite some recent weakness, May has been positive overall. Investors are keeping a close eye on US Treasury yields which rose sharply early last week. Ahead of Friday’s inflation release, they steadied at higher levels with the yield on the 10-year note trading around 4.56%, down from 4.62% on Thursday. All the major US stock indices got a boost following the inflation release. But there was a sell-off in the major stock indices midway through the session, as sentiment began to sour again. As things stand, it could be a disappointing end to the month. by TylerNorcross0
SPX- Rising Wedge With Downward Target as per price actionSPX Daily Chart With Negative Divergence Rising wedge With Downtrend Biased in Weekly & Daily Time-frame Target 1 & 2 Is marked on the Chart. Shortby Rohit_PSV0
SPX - Bearish TrendSPX is in Bearish Trend as there is little divergence and its making Harmonic Pattern which shows it will make reversal.Shortby mhamzasaeedm0
review for SPXOn smal With Magic_xD indicator Gann level for downwards correction It came true for 2 angles End of 2nd cycle to 5158.58 GoodluckShortby algayar370
S&P 500 (future model)?A warning, this is a big possibility! BTW the red target 5152 is taking from the btc chart.that one is crossed. On the M-chart we have a bearish divergence! So like we had on the top of jan 2018 and the top from sept 2018. Also from the top of sept 2018 and jan 2020, we can see a bearish divergence (blue and red arrow), you could also see what happened next. So now the question is this a big warning and will this be just a pull back or the beginning of a bear market? My idea is IF we cross the last ATH at 4824 (dotted red line) and we cross the uptrend channel at the bottom around 4525 (black lines), than and only than the bear market will be in (IMO). IF not we will get a wave 5 up and that one will go to 5515 (IMO). That target is taking from the FIBonacci on the coronalow and the fib 61.8° pullback. Why pullback? People are speaking about a bear market in 2022 but it wasn't, that was just a pullback in the still lasting bull market. IF we're going down there are 3 potential buy zones. We have to see IF and HOW spx is going down. I still believe in blue point 2 and even 3 (buying zones) Buy zone 1 will be the double bottom + fib 61.8° and good bounce will be there. Everybody will becoming a bull again, because that was the bottom and after a shake out and fool the bulls again for the next and final bottom at 2 or maybe 3 (the coronalow) YES i was wrong in the past and now again but just take this in consideration!!! also keep in mind this is a Monthly chart, it will take time by Ronbaten0
SPX Neatural to Bearish The giant for now is neatural to bearish, the biggest reason that it was up was duo to NVIDIA adding 20 points to this However i was never comfortable trading SPX or the equivalent US500 cause i don't like surprises, but for those who do trade it, well, here it is, figure this outShortby GlassICE0
SP bottom/date scenarioMy crash scenario prepared for the S&P is as follows. My expectation for early 2026 or late 2025 has been like this for the past year. It seems that the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P have reached the sell zone. I will make my additions only in the area I have identified as the bottom and will hold these investments for approximately 10 years.Shortby MrEmreTrade0