Bitcoin - Pre-halving price action ($11K-$12.3K potential)
Every four years the number of bitcoins generated per mined block is reduced by half. Currently, 12.5 btc is generated per block. After May 7th (estimated), the number will drop to 6.25. This next 5-6 months will be interesting, especially as media attention ramps up as the halving date draws nearer - potentially bringing fresh liquidity into the market.
From a price action perspective, I think it's reasonable that price revisits the $11K - $12.3K range by May 7th. Prior to that date, given our current market structure, I predict we retrace, eventually printing a HTF inverse head and shoulders that takes us there.
Reasoning for retracement:
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From a price action perspective, I think it's reasonable that price revisits the $11K - $12.3K range by May 7th. Prior to that date, given our current market structure, I predict we retrace, eventually printing a HTF inverse head and shoulders that takes us there.
Reasoning for retracement:
- Location: Kill zone
- Divergence: Unconfirmed bearish div in histogram, willy reaching stupid, RSI topping out at overbought levels.
- Volume: Drop in buying volume
- Structure: Bearish structure on lower timeframes (4hr) would serve as additional confluence for the move down.
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Comment:
Price overshot the red box by about $800, however the general direction is now playing out.
Comment:
Dump right back into the demand zone as predicted. Let's see if support holds, or if global market conditions cause a complete meltdown in BTC price.
