EURNZD-4H-BULLISH CONTINUATION OF TREND
EURNZD analyzes currency pairs using a mix of fundamental and technical analysis, supplemented with some sentiment indicators such as the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), external and endogenous factors (EXO and ENDO), and seasonal trends. Let’s break down the analysis:
1. Fundamental Analysis
LEI, EXO, ENDO: All are improving, which suggests strengthening fundamentals potentially for the EUR against the NZD. The overall trend of improvement in these indicators supports a bullish fundamental outlook for the EUR relative to the NZD.
SCORECARD 3:(COMBINATION OF FUNDAMENTALS SCORE) Shows a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment but leans bullish in the final score.
2. Sentiment
COT-FILP: This sentiment indicator leans towards bearish, as non-commercial long positions are increasing and short are decreasing. This suggests that traders, perhaps the larger speculative ones, are entirely convinced of the bullish scenario or are positioning long.
3. Seasonal:
Indicates a typical pattern of an initial retracement in the first week followed by bullish sentiment. This aligns with some natural ebb and flow seen in currency pairs due to cyclical economic factors.
4. Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish, suggesting that recent movements support a continuation of upward momentum for EURNZD.
Diversions: These are in sync, which likely means there is an upward momentum.
Continuation and Reversal Patterns: You can noted a bullish continuation pattern and no significant reversal patterns, which typically suggests that the current trend (upward, in this case) is likely to continue.
Overall Bias
Despite some bearish sentiment from the COT report and mixed signals of SCORECARD 3, the fundamental improvements and supportive technical patterns lead to a predominantly bullish final score and overall bias.
Interpretation and Trading Strategy
Given the bullish fundamentals, supportive technical patterns, and despite some bearish sentiment signals, the recommended position seems to be leaning towards a bullish stance on the EURNZD. However, it would be prudent to consider risk management strategies, given the mixed sentiment signals:
Entry Point: Look for temporary retracements on daily fvg and 50% fib retracement as potential entry points, especially in the first week if the seasonal pattern holds.
Stop-Loss: Set stop-loss orders below key technical levels to protect against unforeseen reversals, particularly since the COT and FUNDAMENTAL SCORECARD show some bearish sentiment.
Take-Profit: Establish profit targets at technically and fundamentally significant levels, considering both recent highs and any resistance levels identified by your technical analysis.
As always, keep monitoring the market for any changes in fundamentals and sentiment that could affect the validity of this analysis.
1. Fundamental Analysis
LEI, EXO, ENDO: All are improving, which suggests strengthening fundamentals potentially for the EUR against the NZD. The overall trend of improvement in these indicators supports a bullish fundamental outlook for the EUR relative to the NZD.
SCORECARD 3:(COMBINATION OF FUNDAMENTALS SCORE) Shows a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment but leans bullish in the final score.
2. Sentiment
COT-FILP: This sentiment indicator leans towards bearish, as non-commercial long positions are increasing and short are decreasing. This suggests that traders, perhaps the larger speculative ones, are entirely convinced of the bullish scenario or are positioning long.
3. Seasonal:
Indicates a typical pattern of an initial retracement in the first week followed by bullish sentiment. This aligns with some natural ebb and flow seen in currency pairs due to cyclical economic factors.
4. Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish, suggesting that recent movements support a continuation of upward momentum for EURNZD.
Diversions: These are in sync, which likely means there is an upward momentum.
Continuation and Reversal Patterns: You can noted a bullish continuation pattern and no significant reversal patterns, which typically suggests that the current trend (upward, in this case) is likely to continue.
Overall Bias
Despite some bearish sentiment from the COT report and mixed signals of SCORECARD 3, the fundamental improvements and supportive technical patterns lead to a predominantly bullish final score and overall bias.
Interpretation and Trading Strategy
Given the bullish fundamentals, supportive technical patterns, and despite some bearish sentiment signals, the recommended position seems to be leaning towards a bullish stance on the EURNZD. However, it would be prudent to consider risk management strategies, given the mixed sentiment signals:
Entry Point: Look for temporary retracements on daily fvg and 50% fib retracement as potential entry points, especially in the first week if the seasonal pattern holds.
Stop-Loss: Set stop-loss orders below key technical levels to protect against unforeseen reversals, particularly since the COT and FUNDAMENTAL SCORECARD show some bearish sentiment.
Take-Profit: Establish profit targets at technically and fundamentally significant levels, considering both recent highs and any resistance levels identified by your technical analysis.
As always, keep monitoring the market for any changes in fundamentals and sentiment that could affect the validity of this analysis.
Trade closed: stop reached