Monday 2.13.23 Review: Sunday Globex pushed the market over our 4103 Resistance opened above it and we got a long move towards our supply area which is telling us there are still buyers at the cost basis at 4084-77 but even with both attempts over 4143-37 Resistance weren't as strong and didn't give much continuation or rejection, which so far tells us that this area over 4143-37 is heavier outside supply area and for now we are in balance here and still have shorts covering to keep us up.
Tuesday 2.14.23 Prep: Currently over Daily Support, over T2 range and right around Previous Day High and waiting for CPI. Interesting spot we are in as we are sandwiched between Daily Support/Resistance in Distribution mode, can we hold up today and go higher? Will they use the data to run it higher and sell what they can before dropping the bid? or will we drop at CPI and either keep going or reverse and trend back up? Few different scenarios can play out but here is what we know. Our Daily Resistance area is 4215-4191 and Daily Support at 4123-4100 will be Key Locations to watch, any move into Daily Resistance we need to be careful with because unless we base under 4191-85 before taking it out or take it out and base above before taking out 4220-15 then it would be hard to sustain and keep up I think and we need to be careful for it to not reverse if we even go that way of course but we have to keep in mind its a larger supply area and if shorts see supply they will drop the bid and today if 4143-37 goes again that could give us lower targets down to 4084-77 which was already tested Thursday/Friday and might not have as much support this time around which is also our T2 low area. We are over T2 range and under supply so even with CPI we have to keep in mind that we could stay in a tight range still today without a big move out, something to watch out for if we just trade between the Daily Area. On the upside if 4143-37 holds today we have stops lined up over 4168-62 and 4191-85 those are good targets with possible move to 4220-15 if it stays strong. I will watch where the market will go first and make a decision from there.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4220-4215 // 4191-85 Current 4168-62
Support: Key Daily 4123-4100 // 4000 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4084-77
Tuesday 2.14.23 Prep: Currently over Daily Support, over T2 range and right around Previous Day High and waiting for CPI. Interesting spot we are in as we are sandwiched between Daily Support/Resistance in Distribution mode, can we hold up today and go higher? Will they use the data to run it higher and sell what they can before dropping the bid? or will we drop at CPI and either keep going or reverse and trend back up? Few different scenarios can play out but here is what we know. Our Daily Resistance area is 4215-4191 and Daily Support at 4123-4100 will be Key Locations to watch, any move into Daily Resistance we need to be careful with because unless we base under 4191-85 before taking it out or take it out and base above before taking out 4220-15 then it would be hard to sustain and keep up I think and we need to be careful for it to not reverse if we even go that way of course but we have to keep in mind its a larger supply area and if shorts see supply they will drop the bid and today if 4143-37 goes again that could give us lower targets down to 4084-77 which was already tested Thursday/Friday and might not have as much support this time around which is also our T2 low area. We are over T2 range and under supply so even with CPI we have to keep in mind that we could stay in a tight range still today without a big move out, something to watch out for if we just trade between the Daily Area. On the upside if 4143-37 holds today we have stops lined up over 4168-62 and 4191-85 those are good targets with possible move to 4220-15 if it stays strong. I will watch where the market will go first and make a decision from there.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4220-4215 // 4191-85 Current 4168-62
Support: Key Daily 4123-4100 // 4000 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4084-77
Comment:
CPI gave us a stop run up to 4191-85 Resistance but failed to take out the stop there and we found supply. Currently trying to get back in Previous Day Range. IF we accept back in and get under 4143-37 we can Target Previous day Low and we watch for continuation from there if 4103 breaks watch for 4084-77 and possibly under, if we accept under 4040-30 4000 are the possible targets. Unless we hold 4123 and stay over 4143-37 range then we can rotate up again
Comment:
Don't try to buy the dips until you see a hold, this thing is ready to unwind and I would not want to be long
Comment:
IF cant break under 4123-19 Party is over can stay above this area but watch if we build up and still break it later on
Comment:
If we fail here at 68-62 watch for another test of 4143-37 and possibly 4123-19
Comment:
Under 43-37 we are looking for continuation
Comment:
This should get fun, watch out.
Comment:
23-19 just not giving in, This will be area to watch going forward into day and 4143-37
Comment:
There it goes
Comment:
Get inside T2 range we can target T2 low, Break Under T2 Low and hold can see more selling from possible margin calls. See if it plays outs
Comment:
4103-4099 next important area to watch for continuation if it happens today, if not it still could be our Support but if we spend more time holding under 4143-37 then good chance to revisit Todays low at some point again
Comment:
Back over 4143-37 need to be careful if we are out of supply it can continue higher to our resistance targets as we are still in this daily balance and either side can still play out
Comment:
Stop run over resistance, watch if we come back in under then there is a chance for round 2 at the low
Comment:
43-37 held with RTH shorts trapped under, if we cant get back under we might see a move into higher resistance maybe for the stops at 4191-85 if we get enough short covering end of day or at least 68-62 area
Comment:
Looks like staying in balance today. Hit 2 of our targets, traded at Key Resistance and Key Support area with no break for continuation out of balance. Will have to keep waiting and this is something we anticipated as possibility going into this whole month. Lets see what we get going forward, catching myself getting little too biased and market is clearly showing that its not ready to move yet in that direction.