#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.18 - 2.23
Shortened week ahead, lets break down structure and areas of interest to lean on this week.
Last Week :
We opened the week above VAH and under Key HTF Edge, we knew that this is the area where we can see size sellers step in and an area where size longs could be taking profits which creates different sets of sellers to give more pressure to the lower levels, as mentioned this could be the Edge that will stop our run at least for time being.
Market consolidated above VAH, pushed into the Edge, tagged 5066.50 to the tick and failed to take it out which gave a nice sell back into VAH. Tuesday before the data we knew we had Supply trapped above and if Key Support gets taken out we can see a move lower and if we followed down level to level we ended up testing the bottom Edge, taking out one of the weak lows but we only had enough to barely take it and found buying again. By end of the week we ended up back in 5013.75 - 5066.50 Range and Friday we balanced inside under the Key Resistance without tagging it and with a few Key Support tests.
This Week :
Market closed on Friday inside Key Support with what looked like end of day break but Globex opened and pushed away from Key Support again keeping us inside 5013.75 - 5066.50 Range for now. We have a shorter week coming and question is will we stay consolidating in this Current Range and try to push out of VAH towards the Edge again or will the market stay inside Value with a possible move through the Mean towards VAL.
If we end up holding under VAH under 5048.75 - 45.75 // 34-31 areas could bring in weakness once enough supply builds up to break Current Key Support and if that happens we could target move to lower levels towards VAL, we have to be careful looking for too much downside unless Key Levels break and market shows continuation because we could stay balancing inside our Value unless stronger volume comes in. First targets under to watch would be 5001.75 - 97.75 and VAL top at 4988.25 - 84.25 which could find buying to hold us over, if not we have Key Support at 4972 - 67 which we would need to take out for any continuation towards bottom Edge.
If we do end up holding this range and can't take out Current Key Support, we can see more balance in Current range again and if enough buying comes in and we can take out upper Resistance areas at 5034-31 we would need to hold over 5041.50 and take out 5048.75 - 45.75 to see another attempt at the upper Edge. We would need to take out and accept over 5066.50 - 60.75 for any more upside from this range and above target would be towards the top of the Edge where we could watch for failure or continuation.
Area over 5066.50 - 60.75 is big Resistance for now and if we finally have selling from size longs and shorts don't need to pay over Value too much then we could continue to hold under so need to be careful with any pushes over 34 - 41.50 area as they may not hold unless we get strong buying through them.
Levels to Watch :
Current Resistance 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75
Key Resistance 5066.50 - 60.75
Targets if above 5086.25 - 81 - 77.75
Current Key Support 5019 - 13.75
Targets below 5001.75 - 97.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25 Needs to break for attempt lower
Key Support 4972 - 67 Would need to hold under for any continuation towards lower Edge.
Last Week :
We opened the week above VAH and under Key HTF Edge, we knew that this is the area where we can see size sellers step in and an area where size longs could be taking profits which creates different sets of sellers to give more pressure to the lower levels, as mentioned this could be the Edge that will stop our run at least for time being.
Market consolidated above VAH, pushed into the Edge, tagged 5066.50 to the tick and failed to take it out which gave a nice sell back into VAH. Tuesday before the data we knew we had Supply trapped above and if Key Support gets taken out we can see a move lower and if we followed down level to level we ended up testing the bottom Edge, taking out one of the weak lows but we only had enough to barely take it and found buying again. By end of the week we ended up back in 5013.75 - 5066.50 Range and Friday we balanced inside under the Key Resistance without tagging it and with a few Key Support tests.
This Week :
Market closed on Friday inside Key Support with what looked like end of day break but Globex opened and pushed away from Key Support again keeping us inside 5013.75 - 5066.50 Range for now. We have a shorter week coming and question is will we stay consolidating in this Current Range and try to push out of VAH towards the Edge again or will the market stay inside Value with a possible move through the Mean towards VAL.
If we end up holding under VAH under 5048.75 - 45.75 // 34-31 areas could bring in weakness once enough supply builds up to break Current Key Support and if that happens we could target move to lower levels towards VAL, we have to be careful looking for too much downside unless Key Levels break and market shows continuation because we could stay balancing inside our Value unless stronger volume comes in. First targets under to watch would be 5001.75 - 97.75 and VAL top at 4988.25 - 84.25 which could find buying to hold us over, if not we have Key Support at 4972 - 67 which we would need to take out for any continuation towards bottom Edge.
If we do end up holding this range and can't take out Current Key Support, we can see more balance in Current range again and if enough buying comes in and we can take out upper Resistance areas at 5034-31 we would need to hold over 5041.50 and take out 5048.75 - 45.75 to see another attempt at the upper Edge. We would need to take out and accept over 5066.50 - 60.75 for any more upside from this range and above target would be towards the top of the Edge where we could watch for failure or continuation.
Area over 5066.50 - 60.75 is big Resistance for now and if we finally have selling from size longs and shorts don't need to pay over Value too much then we could continue to hold under so need to be careful with any pushes over 34 - 41.50 area as they may not hold unless we get strong buying through them.
Levels to Watch :
Current Resistance 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75
Key Resistance 5066.50 - 60.75
Targets if above 5086.25 - 81 - 77.75
Current Key Support 5019 - 13.75
Targets below 5001.75 - 97.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25 Needs to break for attempt lower
Key Support 4972 - 67 Would need to hold under for any continuation towards lower Edge.
Comment:
So far Globex opened last night and right away made a push into Key Support which we ended up breaking and hitting our first target at 5001.75 - 97.75. We have been holding over it all night and so far not enough Supply/Selling to break it and continue towards VAL so we are just balancing here in the Mean. We can also see that buying is not strong enough from here to get us back to Previous Key Support or over it, going into RTH need to be careful to not get chopped up inside the mean as the next move can take a while to set up. If we will hold under 5019 - 13.75 today that will signal continued weakness, and if we build up enough supply then eventually we can take out this 5001.75-97.75 area and see continuation towards 88.25-84.25 but careful as this might take time to set up and could happen in second half of RTH since we still have buying under that area. We would need to see a push over 5013.75 and acceptance to be able to attempt anything higher back towards VAH today, for now our trapped Supply is above 5019 and its coming out now.
Comment:
IF selling volume is strong enough and we take out next Key Support we can see if we have enough juice to reach our Bottom Edge and don't forget we have some Weak Lows there as well. If not we can stay in Value
Comment:
Today we were able to test all the lower targets down to next Key Support at 4972 - 67, as mentioned we needed to break and hold under for any continuation towards the edge but we only had enough selling for a tag and then we balance above with a close over 4988.88 - 84.25 or top of VAL. Going into tonight/tomorrow we could see more selling we can't hold over 88.25 - 84.25 we could see another move down towards Key Support and see if we can take it. If we do take it out and consolidate under we need to be careful looking for continuation unless lower levels go because we could dip below VAL, consolidate and then once selling runs out push back into Value if we are not fully ready to move ranges yet. Lower targets to watch would be 4960s area 4955.75 - 52.50 which we would need to accept under to see 4940.50 - 37.75 and next Key Support at 4925.25 - 4920 which has the weak lows but as mentioned careful if we dont have enough supply to reach those further targets. If we are able to stay in current range we are looking to trade levels from today, we have Supply over 5001.75 - 97.75 and now have some over 88.25 - 84.25 if we run out under VAL then we will make our way back for it at some point.
Comment:
So far market is balancing at VAL between Key Support and current intrarange resistance at 88.25-84.5. Buying is not strong enough to get us out of this area as we still have supply coming out from VAH/Mean, T2 low/range is above us and we could spend a good amount of time down here until we will build up enough supply to move. If we do build up supply going into the Fed minutes and take out our Key Support we can possibly look for continuation towards the Edge with levels to watch 4955.75 - 52.50 // 40.50 - 37.75 This area still has a weak low which we may be able to properly take if enough selling comes in, if that happens we could find a bid to hold us over in 30s area and if not 4925.25 - 20 is next Key Support that we need to accept under for continuation. For upside from here we would need to hold current Key Support and need selling to run out to be able to head from VAL towards the Mean with target at 5001.75 - 97.75, trapped supply still above us and which could take some time today to set up properly and show us the way.
Comment:
Today market held under 4988.25 - 84.25 Intrarange Resistance all day with a run at Key Support which we broke but failed to tag next level down and ran out of selling, as mentioned if this area holds and selling stops we could see a move back to the Mean at 5001.75 - 97.75 which we tagged in RTH before close, after the bell we got some more volume which pushed higher towards VAH but stopped right at our current Range Key Resistance of 5019 - 13.75. Going into tonight/tomorrow we are inside Value again and we have to see if this end of day/afterhours buying sticks and we try to push towards VAH which would target 5028.50 or if we run out of buying and start back filling this move back down this current range towards VAL. Our T2 low for tomorrow is right at Key Support and todays afterhours high is at Key Resistance, if we fail at or over Key Resistance owe can see a move lower and if enough volume comes in that T2 low would look good for taking. We would need to hold over 5001.75 - 97.75 and accept over 5019 - 13.75 in order to try an attempt at VAH, more Supply is trapped over it, will the buyers need to pay over Value for it or will we continue lowering the bid?
Comment:
What a move in Globex, market pushed over 5019 - 13.75 and went from there all the way to the Edge to next Key Resistance at 5066.50 - 60. Can we continue in RTH today or will we hold this Current Range again? if we accept over we could target move towards Edge top with next level targets to watch at 5081 - 77.75 and Edge top is 5086.25 If we don't have the buying for that we will stay under the Edge but we also probably trapped more shorts on yesterdays move which tells us if we do stay in current range then we might not get too much back fill on this as we will have buyers lower, if we stay in Current Range lower levels are 5048.75 - 45.75 which would need to break to get back inside VAH and attempt at 5034 - 31, if not enough selling then we can just stay Balancing in distribution above 5050 area.
Comment:
Market on steroids haha, looks like will have to work on more levels. So far we accepted over Key Edge low today which target the top at 86.25 and we even got a push through with continuation to next target which is our above HTF Range VAL, we pushed towards it but found resistance at the tag of next Key Resistance at 5112.50 - 07.50, will this be our range for now, lets see what we get. Current Range levels are 5095.50 - 92.25 // 5081 - 77.75 // Key Support 5066.50 - 60.75 // Key Resistance 5112.50 - 07.50 Can trade within until we accept above or below. If we have more juice we could still push into the VAL above if not we will stay under and look to trade this area tomorrow/next week until we are ready to move back under or attempt at VAL again.
Comment:
We ended up holding under Key Resistance without tagging above VAL, we left poor high right into Key area and a volume point of control for the day shifted above 5095.50 - 92.25 level. A lot will think that this poor high will need to be corrected but we need to be careful with that because we squeezed buyers into Resistance and if no more strong buying comes in then that high does not need to be corrected so careful looking for continuation towards it or longs for higher continuation over unless we can accept over 5112.50 - 07.50. We made a move over the Edge into new HTF Range, this is where we have to see if this move holds or we come back in, if buying is not strong enough to keep us over it we will start a move back down inside previous range towards lower targets. This may take time or it could happen faster for now we are inside 5112.50 - 5060.75 Range. This big gap happened during last nights Globex was also done during lighter volume hours and I wouldn't build a Support on that. We can try and hold current range to build up some more inventory while we are doing distribution in this range but overall if we don't accept over this HTF Edge of 5086.25 - 5066.50 then we will start working our way back towards previous Value under 5041.50. Right now going into tonight tomorrow we will be watching if this 5095.50 - 92.25 area doesnt hold we can work our way back to 5081 - 77.75 and if enough selling comes in can see about testing 5065.75 - 60.75 Key Support for current range. This area can give us enough hold to stay over for now but need to be careful as well because size selling will break it with target of 5048.75 - 45.75. For any more continuation higher to happen we would need to see some building over 5081 - 92.25 area and take out 5107.50 - 12.50 area to be able to try and push into new Value above.