i_am_siew

DXY : What the price action says

Long
i_am_siew Updated   
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Looking at price action tells me what the MARKET is thinking/doing. These past few days has not been easy to 'predict' movement because opposing the market are those who wish to see a weakening of the $ to drive down yield.

Anyway, lets stick with the MARKET and trade accordingly.

In all probabilities, we can see that the DXY will move higher in the coming weeks, most likely beating the previous highs.

Good luck.
Comment:
What Powell said - “I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I’d say it’s unlikely,”

And as a result, the market finally realized - buy bonds now, price won't fall anymore. With that, we can now see yield finally dropping.

And with yield dropping, we know what comes next :-)

Good luck.
Comment:
Here we go :)
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Moments like this rarely happens. Stock and gold is moving up again. In anticipation of what? Rate cut?

What we need to really watch out for is just 2 things - DXY and US10Y. If, in all probabilities, yield DROPs and $ moves UP - it can only mean ONE thing.

Good luck.
Comment:
Gold had just retraced 61.8% - the usual thing as we have seen in 2020 and 2022. In 2022, it fell nearly $450 while the DXY went UP to its highest in recent times.

If 2022 were to repeat, we should similarly expect XAU to drop and DXY to rise - which is the usual link between these two.

So, in addition to looking at US10Y and DXY, lets also not forget XAU.

Sell XAU - SL previous high @ 61.8%

Good luck.
Comment:
Gold at the moment is THE best indicator for what the MARKET is feeling.

While price had retraced 61.8%, volume barely retrace 38.2% - now it begins to come into the mind of those diehard gold lovers that their dream is OVER. The "gung ho" moments when gold move higher along with DXY is no more. DXY had refused to weaken and is now not fooling around anymore. One further confirmation that DXY will soon come out as the WINNER.

Lets make some money - from gold - by looking at it FALL :-)

Good luck.
Comment:
US10Y had just made its move.
DXY MUST stay ABOVE 104.50

Be very careful in the next 48 hours
Good luck.
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