Case for possible BTC bottom based on Elliot Wave
Hello,
It has been a while without posting. Still a believer in Elliot Wave, even though it can be difficult to count at times.
Some general assumptions;
- A normal 5 wave impulse wave is followed by three corrective waves - only really concerned with the larger scale (A)(B)(C) correction.
- Wave (C) is often the same lenth as wave (A) but this isnt a rule, it can fail to extend as far or go much further.
- While wave (A) can be a 3 wave or a 5 wave move (I think it has 5 sub-waves),
- The only really key rule here is that wave (C) always 5 waves.
If wave (C) have 5 sub-waves there are five plausible sub-waves present (1-5) and maybe even a plausible 5 sub-waves of wave 5.
I have to admit my buying finger is getting rather itchy. The only remaining (and strong IMO) indicator I am waiting for is a lower low in price matched with a higher low on the RSI (bullish divergence). If you go back on the daily chart, it often marks a bottom (and a top when read in reverse). While you may not personally believe in RSI divergence marking turning points, it is at the very least, a sign of slowing momentum in the trend direction.
If my wave count for the initial drop from 68,810 to 32,917 is correct then a speculative bottom after the swing high of 48,189 was set would be 12,410 on a 1:1 extension Some support before then at 13,970. I doubt we will get that low, but I have been wrong before. If not the bottom, pretty pretty pretty pretty close to the bottom. Might be time for big daddy BTC to go on a run (maybe in 3 months time after some sideways action). Bro, if this happens and you have a hedge fund... gimme a j.o.b.
Do your own research and good luck everyone. Protect those funds.
Ah, a little bit of Fundamental Analysis thrown in for you freaks. Most analysts in the US now expect the Fed to start an easing cycle again soon (at least by early next year). This would mean lower interest rates. High inflation (so deeply negative real returns from treasuries)... USD down stock-market bounce. Stores of value; gold, silver, BTC, property UP.
It has been a while without posting. Still a believer in Elliot Wave, even though it can be difficult to count at times.
Some general assumptions;
- A normal 5 wave impulse wave is followed by three corrective waves - only really concerned with the larger scale (A)(B)(C) correction.
- Wave (C) is often the same lenth as wave (A) but this isnt a rule, it can fail to extend as far or go much further.
- While wave (A) can be a 3 wave or a 5 wave move (I think it has 5 sub-waves),
- The only really key rule here is that wave (C) always 5 waves.
If wave (C) have 5 sub-waves there are five plausible sub-waves present (1-5) and maybe even a plausible 5 sub-waves of wave 5.
I have to admit my buying finger is getting rather itchy. The only remaining (and strong IMO) indicator I am waiting for is a lower low in price matched with a higher low on the RSI (bullish divergence). If you go back on the daily chart, it often marks a bottom (and a top when read in reverse). While you may not personally believe in RSI divergence marking turning points, it is at the very least, a sign of slowing momentum in the trend direction.
If my wave count for the initial drop from 68,810 to 32,917 is correct then a speculative bottom after the swing high of 48,189 was set would be 12,410 on a 1:1 extension Some support before then at 13,970. I doubt we will get that low, but I have been wrong before. If not the bottom, pretty pretty pretty pretty close to the bottom. Might be time for big daddy BTC to go on a run (maybe in 3 months time after some sideways action). Bro, if this happens and you have a hedge fund... gimme a j.o.b.
Do your own research and good luck everyone. Protect those funds.
Ah, a little bit of Fundamental Analysis thrown in for you freaks. Most analysts in the US now expect the Fed to start an easing cycle again soon (at least by early next year). This would mean lower interest rates. High inflation (so deeply negative real returns from treasuries)... USD down stock-market bounce. Stores of value; gold, silver, BTC, property UP.
Comment:
Still watching