BTC Analysis - Macro Perspective (CoV, QT/QE, War, Inflation)
1. Quantitative tightening and inflation continue in the first months. Bitcoin visits old ATH, , then increasingly stabilize as inflation comes more or less under control in the coming months.
2. Energy prices will stabilize and fall: OPEC has announced to increase oil production capacity from june, this will significantly alleviate the global situation and to stabilise inflation overall.
3. Peace treaty in and before winter in Ukraine is very likely and also politically wanted (by Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Hungary to avoid a hard recession, check the past days sentiment)
Option A: Corona's impact in winter will not be as bad as in the last years, China will stick to its no covid strategy for the time being, but will change it in favor of imports and exports.
Option B: (Orange additional deviation in the chart) Corona's impact in winter will be as bad as in the last years, at least in the beginning, but with increased immunity of the citizens and better precautions, Corona will be gone faster. China sticks to no covid strategy
5. money printers come back to work (probably around end of Q1/mid 2023), quantitative easing comes back. All-time high of Bitcoin in late 2023/early 2024
This is just a hypothesis and my subjective opinion. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell or trade bitcoin. Do your own research and never buy more than you can afford to lose
2. Energy prices will stabilize and fall: OPEC has announced to increase oil production capacity from june, this will significantly alleviate the global situation and to stabilise inflation overall.
3. Peace treaty in and before winter in Ukraine is very likely and also politically wanted (by Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Hungary to avoid a hard recession, check the past days sentiment)
Option A: Corona's impact in winter will not be as bad as in the last years, China will stick to its no covid strategy for the time being, but will change it in favor of imports and exports.
Option B: (Orange additional deviation in the chart) Corona's impact in winter will be as bad as in the last years, at least in the beginning, but with increased immunity of the citizens and better precautions, Corona will be gone faster. China sticks to no covid strategy
5. money printers come back to work (probably around end of Q1/mid 2023), quantitative easing comes back. All-time high of Bitcoin in late 2023/early 2024
This is just a hypothesis and my subjective opinion. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell or trade bitcoin. Do your own research and never buy more than you can afford to lose
Comment:
Bottom is most probably in, fingers crossed