AUDUSD AUD Australian Dollar Buying timeframe

5/10/18 The US Dollar has had a fantastic run over the last few weeks, but now, we can expect other currencies to take a turn to outperform the dollar. Despite the recent run, on the long-term perspective, the dollar is still in a downtrend. I have studied the Aussie Dollar / USD chart time periods, I expect now is a moderately good buying opportunity. We can see that there are consistent sine wave patterns in this currency and we can expect a move up. We may have already reached the peak in the USD, but if not, I expect it will be no later than May 15. That being said, the Aussie dollar will not go straight up yet. I believe another buying opportunity will come around October 2018, after which time I believe the Aussie dollar will really shine. I am basing my opinion on clearly measurable fixed time periods in this chart. According my calculations, if this pattern continues, we can buy AUD now, sell by the end of July 2018 and buy again in the beginning of October 2018. Let's see if this pattern holds.
Please let me know your thoughts, and please click like if you like the analysis.
This is not advice to buy or to sell, just sharing my ideas. You should do your own research and make your own investment decisions.

Comment:

Please note, the arrows represent my general rough idea of what may happen, but it may not precisely follow the arrows of course. I

Comment:

If you have a forex account or Aussie bank account, you do not need to read this. But for educational purposes for those who do not have a forex account or Aussie Bank acct, we can invest in AUD buy directly doing a currency exchange your brokerage, but you may not get interest that way depending on your brokerage policy. Alternately if you are in US, you could purchase the FXA ETF which does get some interest and invests in AUD cash. If you want to invest in Australian stocks, you could alternately purchase an ETF such as EWA Ishares Australian stock fund. Just investment ideas.

Comment:

As you can see the dollar has not gone down too much yet, but I am standing by what I said here. If you are a daytrader and looking for very short term swings, this message is not for you. I am talking about the longer term trend. We have a moderately strong buy for AUD now. The USD will turn around soon back downward.

Comment:

Update! I stand by what I said before. My charts say the dollar reached a high 5/16/18 slightly higher than the previous high. I said the high would likely be no later than May 15 of USD. So if the high was actually the morning of May 16 - did I get it wrong? The truth is I am using a timing method which is not completely precise for a few hours here or there or even a day here or there. It does not mean that the main point of what I am saying is not right. This message is not for daytraders, I am not focusing on the intraday differences in this idea. If you are trying to profit from short term swings in intraday or even within a few days, then you should focus on short term fluctuations - that Is not what I am focusing on right now. I am looking at the fluctuations occuring every 2-3 months or so. When you trade like that, if your trades are off by a day or two, the differences in minor fluctuations are not likely to be significant enough to matter much. So yes, my dollar high prediction by May 15 - might be off by a few days even. But that does not change the point of what I am saying. Moderately good buying opportunty NOW for AUD, for the longer term perspective. Look to sell in mid to late July 2018. I will update if I feel we need to change this prediction.

Comment:

Interestingly in this case though, even though the dollar got a bit higher on the dollar index DXY on May 16 compared with May 15, on the AUDUSD chart the low of AUD was still May 9. We are on the right track on the BUY AUD now trend.

Comment:

We are still making higher lows in AUD / USD. My estimate of the high point of USD - we are near the high of USD now. May 15 was not exactly the high but the high will be any time now. We still have a chance to buy AUD now.

Comment:

According to my study of DXY dollar index and AUD / USD charts, I think we are about at the high of USD now. Plus or minus a few days. Though, I still suspect more likely we have already put in the high of USD. The low of AUD / USD Was May 9 and I put this buy AUD notice on May 10. I am looking to sell AUD in July 2018 and buy again in October 2018.

Comment:

AUDUSD pair is holding up. Still within buying range. USD has not yet turned down but rest assurred it will. Admittedly i cannot predict the exact day DXY dollar index reaches its high, but according to all my calculations of the cycle we are in, we are at or near the high of DXY. I would strongly advise against any bull usd dollar positions. Aussie dollar is a good bet still. Usd follow an approx 8 year bull and 8y bear cycle. We are still close to the beginning of the 8y bear cycle. Dont trust any temporary run ups in DXY. That is just a buying opportunity for AUD or commodities. For now we have to root for AUD

Comment:

Update - AUDUSD is holding up. I have done some more refining and studying of my DXY chart, and I still believe that what I said about the DXY - the USD is at or near its peak, that this is correct. But based on refining the time cycles in my DXY chart, I see that the peak in the DXY chart may actually occur in early June. The line by where DXY should have peaked by lands at approx June 11. DXY could peak a bit before or after the line. NOTE: This does not change what I said about trading AUDUSD. Only that the DXY chart might have short-term upside to early June. June 1-11. AUDUSD is still a buy here.

Comment:

Update - We are still on track with AUDUSD. The DXY index still is going strong and as I said in the last update. It may peak early June before or after June 11. Keep in mind that AUDUSD is not in the DXY index and therefore DXY is only partially relevant to AUDUSD. Also DXY is about 57% Euro based, so due to the currently weak EURO DXY has become relatively stronger. That does not mean that DXY will keep going up though. I still say we should see a peak in DXY soon. AUDUSD is holding up despite the strong DXY Dollar Index.

Comment:

I am starting a series to explain the method of calculating the sine waves/ cycles in the chart. There is a lot to explain, can't just do it in one idea. Lesson one is here