AUDJPY wedge play for 4/16-17/20
Here is another trading snack!
AUDJPY has created this really nice bearish wedge pattern. In my opinion there is two good ways to play this pattern. As always patterns can and often do break in the opposite direction from ones own analysis or market bias’s. Having said that, trade if you must with your own risk tolerances. ‘‘Tis also isn’t trading advice, but my opinion on how I’m trading this pattern.
What I’d like to see is a retest if the upper trend line. It may or may not happen. I’ve set orders in the upper red box to go short with stops just over the red box. But because I suspect a break down in price. I’ve also set sell orders just below the lower red box, the one just under the lower trend lie—with again stops just over the top of that same red box. The green boxes are targets and TP zones.
Ideally I’d like a retest if the upper trend line and then a break down to my lower orders. If that happens I’d move stops upon the lower orders filling to my upper orders if filled. Those stops would go to my BE point or my upper average price. Once price has moved another 20 pips or do I’d move all stops to my BE on total orders average price and wait on my targets.
The strategy is to put on as many orders as my trade plan allows while limiting my risk, and while allowing for the market to move with breathing room to this consolidation pattern.
In recap. The upper orders might not get filled. But a breakdown will still get me in on the idea. If the upper orders get filled but price action breaks higher, I’ve limited my risk to my accepted levels. But if the strategy goes as planed then this idea should double in size as far as trading lots, but limit my risk to a level as if I was only trading 1/2 the size in lots.
As always, you either make dust in trading or you will eat dust!
Again this is only an educational post on how I’m choosing to trade this idea. It is not trading advice!
All the best in your own trades.
AUDJPY has created this really nice bearish wedge pattern. In my opinion there is two good ways to play this pattern. As always patterns can and often do break in the opposite direction from ones own analysis or market bias’s. Having said that, trade if you must with your own risk tolerances. ‘‘Tis also isn’t trading advice, but my opinion on how I’m trading this pattern.
What I’d like to see is a retest if the upper trend line. It may or may not happen. I’ve set orders in the upper red box to go short with stops just over the red box. But because I suspect a break down in price. I’ve also set sell orders just below the lower red box, the one just under the lower trend lie—with again stops just over the top of that same red box. The green boxes are targets and TP zones.
Ideally I’d like a retest if the upper trend line and then a break down to my lower orders. If that happens I’d move stops upon the lower orders filling to my upper orders if filled. Those stops would go to my BE point or my upper average price. Once price has moved another 20 pips or do I’d move all stops to my BE on total orders average price and wait on my targets.
The strategy is to put on as many orders as my trade plan allows while limiting my risk, and while allowing for the market to move with breathing room to this consolidation pattern.
In recap. The upper orders might not get filled. But a breakdown will still get me in on the idea. If the upper orders get filled but price action breaks higher, I’ve limited my risk to my accepted levels. But if the strategy goes as planed then this idea should double in size as far as trading lots, but limit my risk to a level as if I was only trading 1/2 the size in lots.
As always, you either make dust in trading or you will eat dust!
Again this is only an educational post on how I’m choosing to trade this idea. It is not trading advice!
All the best in your own trades.
Trade active:
Was just filled on the upper wedge trend line with 1/2 of a position on.
Small risk on looking to have the other 1/2 filled soon maybe???
Trade active:
Into the NY close the other 1/2 filled right at the declining top trend line. Would like to see a bit of a pull back now as we head into the lower liquidity part of the day. The 21 MA ( line in black ) seems to be holding price and pattern in place for now. I’ve also put a plan together just in case if this breaks the pattern higher.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Well, it broke against my bias. It better to be wrong fast with limited risk then it taking a long time to be still wrong. This way I can be on the look out for the next trade.
Win some and lose some.
Win some and lose some.