BTC is still showing a bullish divergence and held the .786 well. The whole market feels bearish right now - this would be the best time for the bears' final push. I'm surprised they didn't hold it below the .786. Maybe they are weaker than expected?
A while ago I mentioned that we may have a wave 1 that could break out of the long term (log) downtrend line and then re-test it as support. Could it still be playing out? The line is now roughly coinciding with major Fibonacci support.
A bullish divergence has formed between the W and Y waves. We also look to be finding support on the .618 (golden ratio). If the .618 breaks with momentum we could still fall to the .786. Let's hope the .618 holds!
With this wave count I show how my original count (to $7700) could still play out. This would be through a continuation of an ABC that would fulfill a WXY, test the 0.618 (of the macro level move) AND re-test the current downtrend line as support (line shown in red from my earlier analysis).
The sub waves are fictitious - just to be used as examples! I do not do...
TRX may not break straight out into a wave 3, it could take longer depending on the market, my lines do not show in anyway how this will occur as I have not went into a smaller time frame to count subwaves - it's just an example! If a breakout does occur then your targets are the 1.618, 2.618 or 4.272 regions. As stated, be careful when buying the breakout for...
In my last post I showed a potential WXY that could take us to around $7700. This count looks to be invalidated (for now?). The downtrend line has been broken but not re-tested as support. I believe a close above the higher fibonacci level (around 8620) is going to be required as another rejection may send us back down. A 4hour and higher candle close would be ideal.
I still believe that until we break out of the downward trend line (in red) we could still go down to around the .618 level. However, I have had a re-count of waves and don't think it is an ABCDE. I instead think we are lining up for a WXY.
BTC looks to be finally finishing up the 5th subwave of a E corrective wave. I believe it will go between 1.618 - 2.618 of subwave 1, corrective wave E. Subwave 2.618 would coincide with the 0.618 fibonacci level of the whole (macro) Wave 1.
Could be a truncated e wave (double bottom) at the 0.5 fibonacci level. Could fall to the .618 level. Until it breaks the downtrend line, I guess we'll find out!
Edit: Realised AFTER I posted that my fibonacci tool was the wrong way up. Whoopsie!
Just following up my last post that showed the end of the ABC . We broke out a short term descending wedge then came back on top of it to re-test as support. Potentially a deep subwave 1 or 'double bottom' type of structure to set up a subwave 3 with the momentum to break us past the last high. A re-test of that next high could be possible too.
Wanchain may have 1 more wave to complete the 1-5 correction. This will re-test the major support/resistance line. Hopefully a bounce will follow. Not sure if the following bounce will be a B wave. I normally like to cross-reference a dollar chart but there is not one available.
I'm going to risk it early and say that the shorter term correction is over. I have been able to count 5 waves down in both the A and C waves. If BTC makes another large run then this will probably just fall a little lower though.
BTC has already done 5 subwaves down in this C wave. However, this final subwave (5) is only 0.618 of wave 1. Although it is possible for it to finish here, I would expect it to go to the 1.0 or 1.618 of wave 1. This takes into consideration that subwave 3 was extended to the 1.618 of subwave 1. I have marked the possible finish at the 1.0 line or 1.618 line,...
Here I am projecting the possible medium/long term outlook for ICX. This projection takes into account the possibility that wave 1 is now over. Below I have added some additional sub wave counts for wave 1 - just to play Devil's Advocate!
This would be the argument for a short term bull set up which would take BTC to medium term horizontal resistance. After this, I assume BTC would try to fall back and retest the long term resistance line.