Price is now pushing the 200 sma on H4 and this follows 2 days of indecision. USD/CHF is overbought on smaller time frames and the H4 TDI is signalling SELL.
We are SHORT from 1.0030 with a STOP at 1.0050
Critical support has recently been broken on USDJPY and with questions marks still surrounding the USD , its possible we could be looking at a measured move down to 108 over the next few weeks.
Positive US data and any talk of additional rate hikes will affect this view but in the absence of positive news we expect the USD to continue its BEARISH move and head south.
Since the January 2015 crash, the price price of EUR/CHF has hit a high of 1.1197 but has steadily declined since then and fell to a low of 1.0621. Since hitting that low, price has meandered in a tight trading range but is relentlessly heading down to back to this critical level and it is known that the SNB has been busy defending its currency.
The problem the...
With the GBP strengthening across the board and the EUR weakening this looks a no brainer SHORT trade. The Weekly TDI is especially BEARISH suggesting we could be headed much lower for the rest of this month.
Oversold on H4 and H1 suggest we may need to see price pullback before the next leg down.
SELL any significant pullbacks.
The EURO continues to weaken across the board and looks to be headed for 1.0630/1.0600 area.
Support may lie here.
Quite a lot of support lies under the price so we could see some BULL activity at the start of the week but we'd need a move above 1.0904 to take the pressure off the downside.
Like most GBP pairs, GBPNZD is in an uptrend but conditions are stretched. H1 is particularly overbought so a pullback to 1.7768 area is preferred before any LONG trades are taken.
1.7594 is the 200 on the DTF and this is quite a distance under the current price.
Look to BUY on any dips.
GBPAUD is relentlessly targeting the 200 sma on the DTF that lies just 200 pips above.
Studies looked fairly stretched but there's room to the upside before overbought conditions come into play.
Under 1.6194 and the outlook turns BEARISH but as long as we stay above this level we should move higher.
GBPCHF remains in an uptrend but with having done 300 pips in the last 3 days, prices are stretched and a retrace is needed to ease overbought conditions. Look for a move down to lower levels possibly in the 1.2440 area and see if we get a bounce here.
Technically BULLISH, no much for GBP/CAD BEARS. 1.66276 is the DTF 200 sma so as long as we remain above this level then we should head higher throughout the week.
Under 1.6535 and the picture changes to BEARISH.
Above 137.15 this pair remain BULLISH. 137.15 is the DTF 200 sma . Look to BUY this pair on dips. A move down to 138.76 would present an excellent LONG trade. On the lower time frames studies look stretched so a move south to ease overbought conditions is likely at the start of the week.
The triggering of Article 50 was supposed to herald a steep fall in the fortunes of GBP/USD seems instead to have turned the GBP increasingly BULLISH. Possibly an example of sell the rumour buy the news. All GBP pairs are looking increasingly BULLISH and we recommend LONG positions on this and all other GBP pairs.
As long as we remain above 1.2376 GBP/USD is a...
AUDNZD has pushed into overbought and the TDI suggests the BULLS are weakening.
SELL this pair with a STOP at 1.0950 (12 pip risk)
This is still a BULLISH pair so this is a scalp trade down to 1.0900 or lower depending on price action.
EURUSD is trapped in a tightening wedge since 12:00 GMT and could break either way. The TDI picture is neutral to BULLISH so my guess would be a break north.
Go long once the wedge is broken from about 1.0760.
Under 1.0750 the look to SHORT.
EURUSD looks to be reversing from current levels having hit 1.0904 resistance which coincides with the 200 sma on the Daily.
The BULLS aren't out of this market so I expect declines to be limited and 1.0780 looks a likely place where the BULLS may gather.
With RSI and TDI declining this looks like a SHORT trade for now particularly as the USD attempts a mild recovery.