This analysis posits a wave 1 leading diagonal in progress. The fifth wave looks to be almost complete and price will almost certainly be resisted by the deceleration shadow boundary.
I would expect wave 2 to complete @ ~61.8% retracement, likely around the end of March ready for an April bull run.
Ethereum is looking outstanding against BTC at the moment. A completed W1 + W2 and a nested W1 in progress. I would hold off a long entry until this nested W1 has completed and retraced at least 50% (sometime around March to April). I'll post another chart when I think this is ready to launch.
This analysis posits a wave C of an ABC correction in progress. The retracement of the candidate wave 1 leading diagonal is too shallow for a typical wave 2 retracement therefore my preferred wave-count now has the leading diagonal as a wave A. On this basis I would expect wave C to extend to 100% to 161.8% of wave A with resistance to be found at the deceleration...
Price is finding support at the confluence of Base channel (Blue) and 50% wave 3 retracement.
I'm looking for a W1+W2 candidate structure to 'step' out of the Deceleration channel (Red) before I open a long trade for the W5.
Alt-BTC cap ratio has developed a wave 1 + 2 and 'stepped' out of it's long-term deceleration channel at the end of a very long falling wedge.
Candidate wave 3 is now in progress which means it's alt-o-clock!
Zoom-out to see the whole deceleration channel.
Analysis using Elliott Wave with Kennedy Channeling.
This analysis posits a B of Y of 4 in progress. Resistance likely to be found at the major deceleration channel boundary (Large Red channel) with support to be found at the highest-degree Base channel shown (Blue).
An Elliott Wave + Kennedy Channel (EWKC) illustration of price architecture from Dec '18 to present. USDT pair selected due to highest traded volume. Key observations since last TA.
Blue | Green | Red = Base | Accel. | Decel.
The 19 Nov rally was resisted by the Deceleration centre (Log scale)
Price was resisted by the Deceleration...
Now that the deceleration channel in play since Jan '18 is getting more mature it looks to be manifesting a falling wedge pattern.
I haven't figured out exactly what the structure of this correction is yet but it looks to be a possible zig-zag . Either way, the culmination of the wedge pattern looks to be sometime between now and Apr 2020 at which time the...
I have an impeccable wave-count down to minute resolution on the October rally which gives me high confidence that this is a W1 with a W2 in progress. This structure is tradeable regardless of whether it is the start of a larger rally or the beginning of an ABC as I can confidently infer a W3 to follow. I intend to trade this once I see a qualifying retracement...
The alt market total capitalisation is finding strong support at the W1 top which lends weight to my current count as a W4 at completion. A break-down below the dark gray box will kill this wave-count. Y-axis is in $billion btw.