sdembis

sdembis

Some technical pieces have started to fall into place now to support a more sustainable rally developing . While the longer-term Monthly Macro momentum indicators (the modified MACD & full Stochastic measures), are still trending downward with no visible signs of flattening out as yet, the more sensitive Williams %R has hooked fully back into maximum oversold...

sdembis

Please refer to the attached chart (best viewed on a desktop PC screen). The 1st big test of Macro support levels is occurring now. Failure to hold here could see could see a flush down to approx. 3500, in the worst case. Best case scenario would be to hold Macro support here, allowing for a few hair raising probes through the support lines, perhaps, and then...

sdembis Updated 

That's what it looks like. - Feb. 01 - Feb.02 on the Daily chart - bare minimum gap fill with Feb. 26 low. Bullish? - Feb. 26 - Mar. 01 on the Hourly chart - complete gap fill today. In our last update we indicated "A pullback to test the upper boundary of the 'Macro Megaphone' pattern should not be unexpected and would likely create negative divergences on the...

sdembis

In addition to the previously noted Daily projections (one of which has now been met), A Monthly upside projection has now been generated from the breakout of the "Macro Megaphone" pattern depicted on the attached chart. Daily Chart Projections : Higher projection 1). 3910 - Met Higher projection 2). 4037 - will negate on multiple consecutive Daily closes below...

sdembis

Valuations stretched, Long Term Momentum measures at maximum overbought levels and still the market could move higher, perhaps substantially higher than the two projections noted here (refer to the chart - the projections would be generated on the negation of the possible Macro 'Diamond' pattern and the breakout from the Macro "Megaphone" pattern. Higher...

sdembis Updated 

Rare Macro "Diamond" topping pattern forming? - A close above approx. 3571 with the possibility of new highs being printed then would negate. Be Wary, Wary careful ...

sdembis

The Macro 'Diamond' topping pattern may be at risk of negation here. The 'Triangle' formation formed on the Daily chart (not shown) from the Sept. 1st high to the Oct. 29th low will generate a projection up to ~ 3,910 on a close today above ~3519. Note: Consecutive Daily closes back inside the 'Triangle', if the projection is generated today, will negate...

sdembis

The S&P 500 is currently in position to register a key outside reversal bar down on the close this month. - A close below 3284.53 (August low) will register the key reversal down on Wednesday, September 30th. The last one of import occurred on the February close, the month in which the previous high was registered. - A close below 3500.31 (August close) will...

sdembis

Looking for some kind of top (shorter term/longer term?) Monday or Tuesday. We'll elect a 50% Short/Hedge at 3523 - 3526 (1st resistance levels, Monthly & Daily, respectively) or better, if seen, with a stop on a close above 3576 for now. ...

sdembis

The clue may be in some of the Daily volume figures with the rally yesterday comprising some of the lowest volume in Months. Tuesday's sell off on the other hand showed some of the heaviest volume in ~2 weeks. Buying volume will have to increase to be more convincing of the sustainability of the current up move. If the market closes on the upside today on...

sdembis

We're electing a 50% short/hedge position at 3384 or better with a stop on a close above 3420.00 for now. We were stopped out of our 1st 50% short/hedge position from 3180.70 (25%) and 3240.65 (25%) for an effective 0.65% loss. We were stopped out of our 2nd 50% short/hedge position from an average entry of 2161.66 for an effective 0.29% loss, bringing our...

sdembis

... the Nasdaq 100 goes negative into the close. As per our previous notes, we elected a 50% short/hedge elected on July 29 for an average entry of 3261.66. Raise the stop for now to a close above 3270.45 (today's high). While we're somewhat loathe to do this, the current market conditions dictates it in so far as the trading action today indicates that a...

sdembis

... you're sitting on top of the world" - Beach Boys, 1963 As per our note yesterday, a 50% short/hedge was elected yesterday for an average entry of 3261.66. Lower the stop to a close above 3265.00 for now. We'll look to add to our position on any rally now that fails to take out yesterday's high (3264.74). We were stopped out of our previous 50%...

sdembis

We've elected another 25% short/hedge position at 3260.00 or better. Addendum: Short was executed at 3260.32 - market had dropped off to price showing when published. Stop for now on a close above 3280.00 We'll look to add another 25% at 3263.00 or better, for now. 'It remains alive in so far as we cannot get another clear trading bar subdivision on the Monthly...

sdembis

'It remains alive in so far as we cannot get another clear trading bar subdivision on the Monthly chart until the first trading day in August to accept a more Bullish 5-wave count from the March low, we remain skeptical of this move, for now.' (July 15 - Part 1) One-half of our 'Flag' pattern short/hedge from 3180.70 was stopped out on the close July 15th for...

sdembis

It remains alive in so far as we cannot get another clear trading bar subdivision on the Monthly chart until the first trading day in August to accept a more Bullish 5-wave count from the March low. We remain skeptical of this move, for now. One-half of our 'Flag' pattern short/hedge from 3180.70 was stopped out on the close today for an effective...

sdembis

On the Daily chart a Flag pattern appears to have formed, currently bounded by ~ 3202 at the high and ~ 3013 at the low. We've elected a 50% short position at 3180 or better with a stop on half the position on a close above 3202 (adjusting Daily for the rising upper Flag boundary trend line) and the remainder on a close above the June 07 recovery high of...

sdembis

1) Bearish 'Island Reversal' pattern evidenced on the Daily Chart (June 4th gap up and June 10th gap lower, leaving the 'Island' behind), still intact. 2) Bearish Weekly reversal bar the week of June 8th - 12th vs the preceding week on the Weekly chart wherein the market opened higher than the prior week's close, then proceeded to trade higher than the previous...