I didn't trade that little bump at 8-9pm on Fri. I think I was away from the charts. I woke up this morning with 2 short positions in the red. Either we get a channel trade in this area or a trending day up or down in which case I'll update.
Pivot is at the close of yesterday so today will reach 7414 ish. Low vol following 2 ridiculous days of movement, so techincally by my definition we will also get a trending day downwards when we break the london open 8-9am.
I didn't post yesterday for I was out and about. And I haven't looked at the news so try to explain that huge movement we had. It trended up but then came right back down and closed down. Those patterns do happen, I think there was one down then up in May. Anyway I was buying in the afternoon and ended up down 2%. Today we've already seen the 55 point move down...
We closed last night's gap down at open. Notice also a pattern that the market rallies into 9pm the last few trading days. I wonder what's up with that? Anyway expect more buying the dips as we plod on up the hill.
Hi all. I didn't post yesterday because I was in appointments all morn. I didn't trade forex on election night either. I was in Nando's when the exit poll came out and that was pretty much the extent of the drama anyway. I was hedged on the FTSE but as the currency went down I was completely expecting a gap up. In any case it was a normal looking range bound wavy...
Not sure what happened yesterday afternoon. Had a real trending US session and got stopped out of few positions while away from the desk. Looking for S1 at least today, similar to Monday.
Wow we just had a 35 point boost up to R2 before 9am which will help define the range for today. 2 wins already being short overnight and buying after open. I'm already up 4% this week. I will look to keep crossing this channel for 15-20 points each time.
Turns out that we had an emergent channel trade for today. Low volatility but a nice wave pattern.
We have a gap to close upwards but the volatility was so low 8-9am that we will likely get this position filled before the gap closes. I hate trading these because my gut always says why sell the lowest of the day? But these trades do have a high probability.
A quiet Monday so far considering the weekend's activities and the upcoming election. But I'm looking at S1 at least.
If we pick up a bit more negative movement then we will have a trending day.
A big break up. Haven't looked at the news so not sure why. But the price might come back to close gap. The likelihood of it doing this in day 1 is something like 70%. The likelihood of the price doing this in the net 3 trading days is like 90% but I'll have to rerun the algo to check.
Here's the likely range. We had a lot of movement yesterday so we normally see low volume and volatility the day after. A good day to put a >50 point tunnel binary bet on if you know how to do those! I've closed out some short swing trades because GBP is only going to go lower which opens up 8000 to the FTSE. It avoids me posting descending shapes in wishful thinking too.
German unemployment numbers came out and we've had a bit of a movement which might result in a trending day.
Buying the spike down for 10 points worked this morning. no 5min bar break trade. THere was more upward momentum than anticipated yesterday but the trading was very range bound. Here's one idea I will be trading today.
Buying the spike down at open did not work : 5min opening bar breakdown did not work because that opening 5min ranged about 18points! This is a possible pattern for today but I highly suspect a trending day so when the 1H bar break down occurs I'll publish the target!
Today is another range bound day. Here's the channel I'm trading
Generally through forex analysis I found that Fridays are a continuation of thursdays direction. which in this case is down. We are unfortunately very high and my gut says don't buy into new highs. If it's like yesterday then I'll post this then we'll have a range bound channel trade type day. friday doesn't often have the vol to trend.