I do think bitcoin is heading into a bear market and the bounce back up to 53k was the top of this bull trap, so now we get to capitulate down to 15k or so over the next 6-9 months.
1st: 4 year cycle still in play but looking battered, people who think the four year cycle still exists will find out by the end of the year.
2nd: longer cycle: bitcoin takes longer to make higher ROI's each cycle. This cycle takes longer than previous cycle and we don't see a top until end of next year.
Never underestimate bulls with bitcoin. You will get slaughtered shorting. I think we are almost halfway through to the blow off top. Cycle top will be 100-250k.
DJI during Great Depression price in USD is fairly close to S&P 500 index now. During Great Depression it was a 50% pullback followed by a 50-55% gain, followed by another 50% pullback.
On the SPY index it was about a 35% pullback and we are at the top of a 35% run up. Expecting a 38% pullback in the coming months.
As long as bitcoin holds the 20 week ma we will stay within this tight band between here and 13.8k as a re-accumulation zone and test new local highs by end of year.
Bitcoin is currently in a bull market on the yearly time-frame. It broke out of the decending triangle but has not touched it yet. Massive resistance at the 9,000 dollar level. This is one possible outcome over the course of this year.
Bitcoin 20 week ma is at 8,000 USD. We should come back down to 20 week ma in the near future and test it. If we can hold then we are in for another uptrend. If we break back below. Look for 200 week ma. The corona virus drew bitcoin down to the 300 week ma on a capitulation wick but has since rebounded nicely.
Hey everyone, it appears Litecoin bottomed out against Bitcoin at 0.005-0.0055. We should see a small pullback to the 0.0065-0.007 area and continue the march long up to 0.013. I give this trade a risk/reward of 2/1 at the moment. Over the next few months look for litecoin to touch the 0.01 mark against Bitcoin and break through up to 0.013.
So we dipped below 9,000 USD and the 200 day ma but this is consolidation before next run up. It took us 17 days to go from 7-13.8k and months to go back down. Set your long leverage positions now with liquidation of 6,000USD about and hold or just purchase spot here and wait for the meme to unfold to the moon again next year. : )
BItcoin will either break out of this triangle soon and the next moon phase around 16-20k will hit or we break below triangle (briefly) and dance around the 200 sma before going to 16-20k. This will be or at least it looks like a shortened version of 2018 bear market playing out right now. With 6k capitulation wick becoming the 9.1k capitulation wick now.
Litecoin went from 1.50 to almost 8 USD during first halving and that was the middle of a bear market with bitcoin. Litecoin gained 0ver 400 percent in USD terms and 300% in Bitcoin terms. I expect something similiar in the next few months abit it will be a smaller % ROI gain.
Litecoin pumped over 400% during the first halving in the middle of a bear market. This is an updated version of a previous chart with a risk/reward ratio of around 3 to 1. I expect the pump to be less than the first simply because there are more coins above litecoin right now than there was in the last bear market.
