The price movement in the S&P 500 hourly futures contracted today, as traders evidently stepped aside to wait for Wednesday's Fed decision and Jerome Powell's first news conference as Fed Chair.
Heading into these events, the S&P 500 hourly futures remain in a downtrend. Best to wait until after these events play out before contemplating a trade set-up. The most...
Not long after the trend on EUR/USD hourly, as signaled by the angle on the 50MA, changed to up yesterday, it then reversed back to down today. Hence, any attempt to buy on a pullback today based on the uptrend previously identified would've resulted in a loss.
I suspect this choppiness is due to uncertainty prior to the Fed's decision tomorrow as well as Jerome...
It turned out that the recent contraction in the S&P 500 hourly futures (see link to my previous post below) was a continuation pattern of the pre-existing downtrend in force since March 13. The S&P 500 futures crossed the lower Bollinger band this morning, subsequently falling sharply.
The upshot is that a wave 5 in the downtrend has now been completed. It is...
A potential reversal of the downtrend in EUR/USD hourly (see link below to my previous post) did in fact materialize as an attempted 7th wave downwards failed early this morning. That was followed by a strong move to the upside that straddled the upper Bollinger band until EUR/USD pulled back somewhat in the late afternoon hours.
The 50 MA is now angling up. We...
The downtrend in EUR/USD hourly that began in the early hours of Mar. 14 has now completed 5 waves. Worth noting is that the wave 5 swing low at 1.2266 corresponded with a momentum divergence on MACD. While it is still too early to look for a trend reversal to the upside, I will be on the look-out for a long set-up should EURUSD move below 1.2266.
SPX SPY SP1! SPXUSD SPX500USD The downtrend on the S&P 500 hourly futures in place since Mar. 13 saw a failed attempt to establish a fifth wave on Mar. 15. Since then, the S&P 500 futures has moved sideways in a tight range between 2745 and 2760.
Such a contraction usually presages a significant impulse move. The question is: in what direction is it more likely...
EUR/USD completed a wave 7 last night, but then went on to move below the wave 6 swing low today. Because the 50MA is still angling upward, the trend remains up.
However, there are several signs of a reversal developing. First off, we are now beyond wave 5, where trends are more likely to end. Moreover, the wave 7 high did not touch the upper Bollinger band....
The downtrend signaled yesterday on the S&P hourly futures (see link to my previous post below) witnessed a continuation today. We are now into Wave 3 of a downtrend extending from the Mar. 13, 900 am high.
This downtrend looks like it will persist at least for another impulse move down, as the wave 2 swing high failed to hit the upper Bollinger band. Also...
After yesterday's trend change signal (see link to my previous post below), the EUR/USD continued higher today. We have completed a 5 wave uptrend thus far. Given how far this trend has already gone, the initiation of new long positions is no longer a viable option. At the same time, it is still too early to consider the prospect of a trend reversal, especially as...
SPX SPXUSD
The S&P hourly futures appear to have completed a nine wave uptrend. Today, the S&P tried to move above resistance at the wave 9 high around 2800 -- but failed. Subsequently, the market dropped, causing the angle on the 50 MA to point downwards. This is indicative of a change in trend from up to down on the hourly S&P futures.
I'll be looking to...
EURUSD appears to have completed a 5 wave downtrend with Mar. 9 (8 am) representing the low of that movement. Since then, the EURUSD has drifted higher, with the result that the 50MA is now angling upwards. This signals a change in the trend to up on the hourly chart. Improving momentum, as seen on the MACD line, also bodes well for a move higher on EURUSD.
I'll...
S&P 500 traded down today, in what could be a sign that the uptrend on the hourly chart is ending. We have completed 9 waves in the current uptrend (based on SPXUSD) -- anything beyond 5 waves raises the probability of the trend reversing. Also, momentum has come down significantly, as signaled by a declining MACD. Note, too, the existence of nearby resistance at...
The uptrend in the EUR/USD hourly chart going back to March 1 went to wave 7 this morning. Once we start going beyond wave 5, the trend no longer remains so much of a friend. Also, the wave 7 high at 1.2445 was not confirmed by the MACD line. This momentum divergence adds to the case that the current uptrend on the hourly is losing steam.
We'll need to see a...
The S&P 500 gapped lower today on the open, but then proceeded to fill the gap and end up unchanged for the day. After filling the gap, the S&P 500 did retest the morning low but did not break it, thereby not confirming the current zone as a swing high (see links to my two previous posts below). The upshot is that, in the hourly chart, we remain in a toppy...
Yesterday, the S&P 500 gave further evidence of hitting a swing high (see link below to my previous post) as the market went sideways at the 50 MA on the hourly chart. We are still awaiting confirmation of a wave 2 swing high via a breakout below key support on the lower 15 minute time frame. It looks like we’ll get that with today’s open, though I may need to...
S&P 500 rose today, continuing a wave 2 pullback of the current (since Feb. 27) downtrend on the hourly chart. The S&P 500 index (based on SPY) is now bordering on the 50MA and the short-term oscillator is in oversold territory. This confluence suggests that a completion of the wave 2 pullback is at hand, which would mean the initiation of a wave 3 to the...
Friday's trading saw the S&P 500 go up, in the process initiating a wave 2 pullback of the downtrend that began on Feb. 27. This pullback offers the chance to enter on the short-side.
There is resistance just above where the S&P 500 closed on Friday (at 270 based on SPY). The short-term stochastics oscillator is entering into oversold territory. I'll be looking...
EUR/USD hourly was persistent in its ascent on Friday. The result was the continuation of Wave 3 in an uptrend initiated on Mar. 2.
I am looking to enter long on a Wave 4 pullback. Support exists at the 1.2280 zone. I will also be watching short-term oscillators to hit oversold levels.
