joshdonoghoe

joshdonoghoe

Took this position today at 12am GMT after the 1hr 50ema and pivot rejection. As stated in my previous idea I have been looking for a clear signal to short this pair, and today thats what I got. We had strong bearish MACD divergence on the 4hr chart with price making triple tops. After this, we had a clear break to the downside breaking the key trendline, 1hr...

joshdonoghoe

After the strong breakdown last month, I have been waiting for an opportunity to get in on the bearish momentum. These are 2 scenarios that I believe have a high probability of playing out. As I've said before, just because I have a strong bearish bias it doesn't necessarily mean I'm going to go put on a position straight away. What I need to see at either of...

joshdonoghoe Updated 

Nice intra-day trend change with higher timeframe confirmation.

joshdonoghoe

There are 2 possible situations that I believe are most likely to occur from here. Situation 1 - We either form a double bottom or bounce off of the very key monthly/weekly line of 1.145 before heading higher to around the 1.20 mark. What we would then have is a textbook head and shoulder pattern which would be a very good shorting opportunity. Situation 2 -...

joshdonoghoe

The short answer: DONT. I've decided to use EUR/GBP today as a prime example of when to sit on the sidelines and not risk a cent of your capital. As you can see, the past 7 weeks have been an absolute mess with price looking very indecisive and all over the place. This means that traders are not able to come to a consensus of whether they are bullish or bearish...

joshdonoghoe Updated 

As stated in my last trade idea on GBP/JPY at the start of the week, I was looking to get into this pair short around the 148 mark. On the 07/06/2018 I saw a beautiful opportunity to pull the trigger. What we had was: Price getting squeezed between the upward sloping trendline and the key level of 148 (usually when price is squeezed in a triangle like this it...

joshdonoghoe Updated 

After finally breaking the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern that has been forming since the end of last year, we now have confirmation that this pair is in a new trend. In order to capitalise on this, I'm looking for a re-test of the neckline (around the 148 area) which would also line up with the daily 50ema.

joshdonoghoe

Trading a quick pullback on this pair

joshdonoghoe Updated 

After the huge selloff on this pair, on the weekly/daily timeframes we have rejected a key support area as well as a long term trend line with a low test candle on the weekly and bullish momentum on the daily. After seeing this, I always look to the intra day charts to see if there is any sign on a trend change. What you can see is a triangle/falling wedge...

joshdonoghoe Updated 

Now that we have broken the key trendline on the weekly and daily timeframes, we have more confirmation that this pair is experiencing a trend change. I am personally waiting for a re-test of the back side of the trendline, the daily 50ema and potential 0.382 fibonacci retracement (if we bounce off 1.56250) before going short. However if a long entry presents...

joshdonoghoe

The Euro has been dropping since mid April without any major pullback. The area between 1.16-1.17 has proven to provide support/resistance in the past and could be the area we bounce from. If we get a bounce from this area I will be looking to put on a short term long trade and target the daily 0.382 Fibonacci retracement which will probably also line up with the...

joshdonoghoe Updated 

After the latest monthly close, we now have 2 months of deceleration around the key support zone of 80-82.0 with a potential daily head and shoulder pattern forming the right shoulder at the close of last week. Although this pair could go a lot higher in the long run, the safest bet would be to play this up to the weekly 50ema and previous key support/resistance...

joshdonoghoe Updated 

With the dollar gaining a lot of strength lately, the inverse correlation with the euro looks to be taking place. EURAUD may be another pair with good technicals to trade in order to capitalise on the potential fall in the euro. We currently at extreme highs which hasn't been traded above since late 2009 and have formed a bearish hammer candlestick on the...

joshdonoghoe Updated 

Looking to play a short term pullback play on EURUSD. We are at a very nice level of 1.185-1.19 with the weekly looking to form a low test candle at the 50ema. The daily has rejected this area with some strong bullish momentum after deceleration. After seeing this, I go down to the lower timeframes to look for anything that is telling me the trend is changing. On...

joshdonoghoe

It looks like we have formed a potential inverse head and shoulder pattern right at the key line of $60 which has been respected in the past. Could this be the catalyst to take this higher? Maybe. A definite negative in taking a trade to the upside is the potential lower high that could be forming on the weekly right at the 0.382 - 0.5 FIB retracement. If this is...

joshdonoghoe

After experiencing such a big selloff and the break of many key 'lines in the sand', (this could be a key trendline, key support/resistance line, 50ema etc.) the next thing you should be asking yourself is, where can I get in on this newly forming trend at the best value? It is never wise to 'jump on a moving train' and put a short order on at the bottom of the...

joshdonoghoe

GBP/NZD is a very nice setup from the monthly down. On the monthly we have been sitting around the 50ema which has been holding very well, the weekly has just broken a triangle pattern to the downside after forming double tops and a nice candlestick formation, and the daily also broke a short term triangle pattern at the close of the week. These all tied...