johnrfraser

johnrfraser

I'm currently torn between whether we are: 1) about to complete a minor retrace and thus bounce off of $246 region or 2) in a corrective move that based on the first wave down from $300 takes us down to $200/$210 If its $246 then I'm confident of a break of the red long term downtrend...followed by an explosive break upwards...not to be missed. If it's 2...

johnrfraser

I'm liking these posts referencing early cases where we consolidated, dipped very quickly and made for higher ground. This adds some weight to my suspicion this pennant could do a classic measured move down to 220 area before bouncing. This led me to succumb and try adjusting my fib from my previous post and use the whole rally up from Jan low, to measure the...

johnrfraser

I believe we have seen a (nearly) 71% retrace so thought I would post the thinking behind it and gauge reaction. The major blue wave started out from the January low and completed stages 1 & 2. So we are in wave 3 of the bigger blue impulse. So the green cycle makes up wave 3 of the big blue one. The smaller deep red cycle completed the first wave of the green...

johnrfraser

My feeling is that this may be happening. Everyone has been expecting $300 plus, but to me this looks like a 3 wave impulse ending at 295. Also there's the divergence on the CCI that has been present the whole way up. CCI failign on the red overhead resistance too. And RSI is topping . If so I'm looking for a buy in the retrace zone. Comments please. (ignore my EW...

johnrfraser

Looks like a reversal signal to me...plus this stopped around the same level as the last rally, this time on less volume. Head & Shoulders isn't a convincing follow up of the big green bar, so I'm expecting to short.

johnrfraser

This is confusing. A big flag or pennant has formed which I would normally be inclined to trade for a break upwards...but the price and the stoch rsi are showing serious divergence. macd is is beginning to also. Would you agree the divergence overrides the pattern? Making this a short?

johnrfraser

Why is it every time there is any action in the market, Tradingview charts just stop working? Not only that, re-write data, and post false price and indicator action...precisely as illustrated here...although by the time it's posted, maybe it will have redrawn and show the correct data again. It's not the api either...bfx data is showing the price action just...

johnrfraser

My analysis of the weekly...notes in the chart. Your thoughts welcomed. Thanks

johnrfraser

Fairly confident about my 'buy zone' here as it's derived from several approaches all converging on the same range: 1- 62% - 71% retrace of the rally 2- Completion of zigzag ABC correction (mauve) 3- Measured move off of pennant (blue) ..and now being confirmed by another smaller pennant (orange) implying a measured move to centre of the buy zone, 210 and 70%

johnrfraser

a last 215 before we ditch?

johnrfraser

I'm reading this as a pump. 1 Tall spike showing lack of support. 2 MFI maxed out straight away. 3 MACD looking to cross down. Anyone see it differently? Happy New Year :-)

johnrfraser

Annotations in the chart. Quadruple bottom off of yesterdays sells. Tentatively bullish.

johnrfraser

Could this be a fake out for a double bottom at the level everyone was waiting to off of the the 395 peak? I'm still long as I cannot see that the Orca buying so many coins earlier in the week was buying them to ditch??

johnrfraser

Is this long drawn out assault on mid 380s coming to an end? Falling volume, and a lower peak on MFI looking like it wants to drop. I've noticed all weekend how the price movement has been contradicting the order book geometries of both Bitstamp and Finex...very obviously some artificial propping up of an otherwise downward bound path. Would you agree?

johnrfraser

Hi, I wanted to share this idea I've been following for a little while...currently watching to see if it plays out. Sorry for the messy chart...I needed to scroll back in time far enough to show the earlier demonstration on the same chart. I've noticed how on big moves, they seem to play out in several phases, which seem to be mapped nicely by the MFI...

johnrfraser

Can anyone truly be Long on BTC? I notice that over 13million of the maximum 21million bitcoins have already be mined. Sure, this is anti inflationary and mining gets harder and BTC value increases per the model. The heyday of mining has been and gone though. Hardware advances meant that way too many coins have been mined way too early. With diminishing coins,...

johnrfraser

I've been wondering when a new 'spoke' might reveal itself on the 1D chart...perhaps this is it? Spoke 1 appears to have been suggested by two candle bounces as shown on the price chart. Interestingly Spoke 2 coincides with price and Spoke 1 at this point, providing overhead resistance. Could this junction have caused the drop over the last 24 hrs? Spoke 1 (if it...

johnrfraser

Been wondering if this might happen since I spotted this pivot earlier today...