johan.gradin

johan.gradin

Probably options play. to net long

johan.gradin

There's still 50% down to the lowest low. But a intermediate term bottom may be in. Vs another depressed highly inflation correlated asset -> CL it's also an attractive long term buy. Just need more variance for lager moves and bigger positions.

johan.gradin

the USDZAR looks very similar to 2013-2014. Naturally so does many of it's sisters such as the MXN and other EMFX

johan.gradin

Thinking the dollar will gain more steam against particularly EM when FED hikes could be a big misstake imo. However we've build an amazing upwards consolidation (wedge), the ideal move here would be 1. Fakeout to the upside with a reversal. 2. A sideways movement until 2016, "yield getters". And there's also something for you tech guys/gals... a sizable cup and...

johan.gradin

Self similar fractal on the EURCAD, very beautiful!

johan.gradin

This is TNX (Yields) And the 30y/10y ratio (the idea that higher dated bonds should reflect higher yields) This range the markets have been has coincided with the de-coupling from this Ratio and Yields on 10y US bonds (TNX). Why this re-coupling? might be inportant, is because it leaves the door open for markets to start matching fundementals and vice versa....

johan.gradin

some similarities

johan.gradin

Easy money, in anyway shape or form easily hedgable. the 80s yields analog still holding up LT. FED moving rates treasuries lower. EU has moved opposite, betting on this indicator to break it. Key pet is still the Yen and bonds :D until they change their view that one holds up. There is some room here for moderation with bonds selling, and then sell EU on rally...

johan.gradin

This one has to markedly move higher fast!.. if it's going to match the higher pattern matches. If we don't see a reaction this week, remember RBNZ, It will likely range trade 1.46-1.51

johan.gradin

EURGBP is heading right into previous long term support. it's a 5:1 er. So if it just powers through. You have 4 more opps to make it pay up the b/e.

johan.gradin

Without the Rates. USDKRW is a really undervalued pair on a PCA modelled residual basis, seasonality 15y is as usual strong into April, with 5y 10y predictably ends in late march since people have been selling rallies in an anticipatory move. Buy P/B

johan.gradin

Buy pullback, seasonality matches well too. As well as PCA residuals are some of the lower ranks recently along with NOKSEK and USDKRW. Plus alot of bulls and bears got taken out in that new low.

johan.gradin

until April May

johan.gradin

Monthtly 200 SMA touch.. Resembles the 85 crash where there was a sharp rally the following year, followed by chop YTD, and lots of volatility. Probably more pronounced %-wise today, since big companies and current financing will need re-finance and re-hedge on a bigger scale = obv. increased volatility.

johan.gradin

These will never flatten out i.e Sideways (absorb positions) or, (god forbid) rally (2015). Since there's a clear idea that US is going to tighten soon, and we have to price in Eu QE. This stuff on the chart should continue, even with exreme positioning coming in on those spreadsheets worldwide. There's no worries on future US data, or is there? ;) Markets are...

johan.gradin

It broke worse than 04, but the top tier general highs and lows P/A is still valid. More Sideways? Impossible?

johan.gradin

Up against some resistance here with very high weekly levels on many indicators.

johan.gradin

stuff that trades like the EURAUD, analog vs USDTRY in 2009. There's better ones from early 2000s - 90s. but data isn't available here.