EUR is at the levels before U.S. presidential election. And it does look like a topping process where price goes up and down in a thin range.
So I'm retaking this short with target to 1.11 levels again as I still expect Fed's rate hike expectation to come back.
I publish this technical note for myself as this is my first look at the S&P 500 Index.
It does look like a sweet spot to go Long the SPX with a target at 2500.
But of course, political risks remain the most significant factor in the U.S. markets at the moment.
So let's see how it goes.
I begin to seriously like the idea that GBP has reached its top the next few months. As I expect Fed to hike rate in June, and Brexit deal to negatively affect the Pound. It's a good time to take the short.
First target: 1.2800
I will then look for opportunities to hedge these EUR and GBP shorts with other longs to square the risk.
A quick note for EURUSD short as EUR bulls seem out of steam. Pretty every good news have priced in.
As for USD, markets broadly expect a rate hike in June, which can bring the pair down in short term.
www.dailyfx.com
Fundamental: EU talks Greek debt to GDP ratio, looking to reduce it to 60% level by 2060. Then, the leaders will discuss Brexit. Britain said they would quit negotiation if the exit bill's too high.
Technical: EUR is approaching Trump election night levels (blue box). Further gain this week is not likely to outweigh the risk of a short term retreat.
My opinion:...
Fundamental: The market is waiting for Eurozone's GDP 1Q figure. If as expected, it would confirm a recovery trend in EU is currently in place.
The trend is previously mentioned by ECB President Mario Draghi as "solid and broad". These keywords lifted EUR for the past week.
On the other hand, EURUSD's momentum has been hurt by expectation that FOMC would increase...
Fundamental: news released regarding French election 1st round. Election exit polls* showed that Centrist** Emmanuel Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister led the round.
That was a huge relief for the Euro as this news gives hope for the Eurozone's future.
Euro pops to 5-month high on French election relief
Technical: market gapped +100 pips to...
Fundamental: So investors have been covering their shorts before French election, that made EURUSD green for this week. We're heading into a quiet weekend as market awaits vote results on Monday Apr 23. Whoever get elected is expected to leave negative effects on EUR.
Technical: There's a downward channel that connects all the recent highs of EURUSD since May...
Theresa May's call for early election caused institutions to revise their targets for the pound, and a sharp increase to 1.29 on GBPUSD.
As JPY has been bought aggressively for days, I believe this is about the time for a short covering.
Combine these 2 ideas with a technical signal that GBPJPY is breaking previous highs, I'm targeting 142.00 as the next stop.
