hobo4000

hobo4000

Just an update on my tracking of the IXIC/QQQ. Tested the downward trend line yesterday and failed. Showing a bit of weakness in the RSI, but a bull crossover in the Stoch, while the MACD is basically useless for now. Trading right around the mean on the BB. Doesn't seem like it knows what it wants to do yet. There's a potential for more downside while it trends...

hobo4000

It looks like the IXIC might be making itself a new downward trend. Possible bearish flag after the initial selloff over the last few weeks. This week I will be looking for the IXIC to break up through the downward trend line and then the 13610 resistance line. If it fails the trend line, I think we will have more of a gradual downward trend, but if it fails...

hobo4000 Updated 

Clear divergence formed in the QQQ daily chart. Tomorrow the QQQ could test a resistance level at the 50 day MA again as well as the last failed ceiling at 324.50. Could be a break out but could trigger the second leg of the tech selloff that started last week. I am of the opinion that the tech selloff isn't over, but tomorrow will tell us if it could continue...

hobo4000

XL is rising on falling volume and approaching the 200 day MA. Will it break out above the 200 day? And if not, how much further down does it really have to go? I believe XL is a strong long term company in a crowded EV market. They have already posted profits and are a nice bridge between companies replacing vs retrofitting their fleets. I am long XL at...

hobo4000

Looking at a triple top for ADBE in day view, followed by a breakdown below both the 20 and 200 day MA. Looks to have found support at 420, but hit the top of the downward trend line and is sitting at a previously established support level around 445. If ADBE fails to break up and follows the downward trend line, it will be forced to retest 420. If it fails and...

hobo4000

Divergence continues to build between buying volume and valuation in the combined SPY/DIA chart. I believe this indicates buyer fatigue in the sectors that have seen a bull run after the tech selloff. This, along with TNX jumps continuing to drive the IXIC down, could indicate imminent trouble in the general markets. It doesn't seem that the SPY/DIA can keep...

hobo4000

Checked out some monthly charts this morning before market. IXIC overbought on the RSI, Stoch 14/3/3, and on the Madrid Bull/Bear sentiment. Still trading quite a ways above the 50 day MA and the most recent support level in monthly view of 10900. Seems unlikely that the recent selloff will do enough to bring the index back to normal ranges. Further indications...

hobo4000

A bearish divergence forming in the SPY daily chart. Supports other posts looking at a head and shoulders in the chart, which I personally don't see. Either way, a few red days may be coming. Not necessarily a full correction tho. I have cash on hand to buy at some decent discounts and hedges in place (puts purchased with premiums from covered calls) where the...

hobo4000

Looks to be a divergence forming in the SPY/DIA chart between purchasing volume and valuation. Stoch is also approaching overbought but RSI is still within a good limit. Could indicate a coming pause in the cycling of the market after the recent upswing in value/non-tech companies. Could be a good time to get into some value companies or to check your charts...

hobo4000

IXIC had highly anticipated and hoped for bounce after recent correction, which lines up with the 10 year Treasury bond rate dropping a bit. It looks like both charts are hitting resistance/support. IXIC looks like its neither terribly overbought or oversold on RSI. Tomorrow is a potential big pivot point for both charts. Will TNX find support and IXIC meet...

hobo4000

Starting with boji1's analysis AMEX:SPY/3.795+NASDAQ:QQQ/2.065+AMEX:DIA I have come to the theory that perhaps the overall market isn't in the kind of bubble everyone is touting, but in stead tech heavy bubble. Overall, the markets are up roughly 20%, with IXIC by itself up 44% using support levels found prior to the March 2020 crash. If we look at the IXIC as...

hobo4000

Thanks to boji1 for your post about using AMEX:SPY/3.795+NASDAQ:QQQ/2.065+AMEX:DIA which has been extremely enlightening and useful. Based on this chart, the overall market has seen fairly modest increases over the last 12 months. If we use the volume support going back to November '19, the current overall market has gone up 17%. Based on the last found...

hobo4000

IXIC Overvaluation Analysis and Subsequent Hedging Strategy This is a bit late, but I wrote it on 2/25. Perhaps it will still be helpful. *Background: To prevent repetition: all analysis presented is based on the monthly view of IXIC and all data given will be therefore based on that chart unless otherwise specified. Prior to the 2000 “Dotcom Crash”, the IXIC...