gordonscottcmt

gordonscottcmt

Does this gut-punch to the RE tech industry signal a looming share price drop for BLK? An index of Z+OPEN+RDFN+HOUS has had a very high positive correlation to BLK--until now when the index took a hit from the NAR settlement.

gordonscottcmt

Tech stocks look poised to open lower but rise mildly. The Edge Finder software implies that this setup, which typically would have about a 70% probability of winning, historically plays out with an 80% win rate, suggesting a 10% edge in such trades.

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This trade idea assumes that the unusual range move signals a higher probability of a trend continuation, even if there is a short-term reversal. The Edge Finder software suggests that a Limit order of 44.78 on FCX with a 5% stop and a 5% target, a trade which normally has a 50% probability of winning or losing, has historically won 73% of the time in an average of 10 days

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For today only, until the end of the NY session, the Edge Finder suggests that a trader could enter a long trade on NZDUSD with a 100 pip stop and a 51 pip target. This implies a baseline win probability of 66%, but the Edge Finder solution historically shows an 8% edge, implying a 74% probability of winning the 51 pip as long as you enter the trade below .6100. ...

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For the next 24 hours, the Edge Finder system suggests that a trader could risk 100 pips to make 10 pips entering short at any price above 1.0100. Sounds crazy but this trade has a 5% edge historically, meaning if the setup (risk 10 to make 1) gives you a 90% probability even with random price moves, this setup up, historically, has won 95% of the time. Since...

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From the book "Invest to Win" here are my latest Stop and Go signals.

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CDNA is three days past its large down day following a small gap. This kind of trade setup shows a positive edge if you wait for three days after the drop to execute a buy. Let's see if it works this time!

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This entry qualifies both as a Crossover Gap and a KCA Surge signal. These signals appear to show a sustained an persistent edge over time so even if the next trade showing them doesn't turn profitable, statistically they are worth taking. Risk only 1% per trade and make enough of these trades and you'll see the benefit.

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Just for fun, I thought I'd use the ghost feed to fill in a "maybe" scenario for 2023

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Buy stop at 1.54310 Stop at 1.53110 Target at 1.54910 120 pip stop, 60 pip target, with lots of room to run beyond the target. 68% probability of success for hitting the 60 pip target. (note: image target is wrongly labeled on image, should be 1.54910)

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Analysis: AUDJPY had a strong move working its way all the way back from the weekend opening down gap. Could push upward into the gap.

gordonscottcmt Updated 

This setup is based on an RSI break above 70 corresponding to a recent breakout. It is positioned so that the trader can bag 2x reward to risk, but have the opportunity to ride a continuing trend if the Oil Inventories report pushes the dollar higher today. Basic trade setup with 43 pip loss and 78+ pip target gives only a 34% probability of winning, but provides...

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Based on the 2013 publication of the Journal of Technical Analysis, first article, "Analyzing Gaps for Profitable Trading Strategies," I am noticing that you could have used these following criteria to create 5 profitable trades this year on DRV. Look for: A larger green candles, red candle on day before Green candle crosses the 10-day moving average​ Above...

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It makes sense that interest rates in the U.S. would be correlated with a carry trade like the dollar/yen. But I wonder how many forex traders think to use this information to inform their USD?JPY trades. The positive correlation between bond futures (say the ZB contract), or even TLT and FXE while U.S. markets are open, is remarkable persistent in any time...

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The candles below represent a 60/40 mix of TLT and SPY, bonds and stocks. SPY (orange) and TLT (blue) by comparison show than neither asset class is helping to overcome the bad performance of the other. By comparison, moving money to cash (UUP) looks like it would have been a great short-term move against inflation.

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With the inflationary environment persisting in the U.S. the correlation between the US stock market and various currency pairs may be uncoupling. However, the EURAUD seems to be maintaining a mildly positive correlation to the S&P 500. If the bear market in U.S. stocks continues, this pair may gravitate towards a bullish trend. Currency traders will want to keep...

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RINF is an exchange-traded fund that tries to price inflation expectations. TIP is an ETF that tries to hedge against inflation. While both of these have flattened (or are falling), the CPI keeps rising. Could it be that even stocks won't be able to outrun inflation in 2022?

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If this line, the two-ten yield spread, reaches zero, then the markets will be forecasting a recession. This is yet another way of looking at the inverted yield curve.