davidb31

davidb31 Updated 

We have a W formation inside an H&S. The 55- and 100-day SMAs may provide support in the 75.50 – 75.80 area. On the topside, resistance might be at the recent peak of 81.75 ahead of the breakpoints near 83.40 ahead of the prior high at 84.89.

davidb31 Updated 

We have a confirmed Inv H&S on WTI with TP at 83.5. Might go down to 80 first.

davidb31

There're 2 main scenarios for oil. First, going back to ranging and the bottom of the channel at 64 - 65. Second, completing the big fat W and 92.5. Let's see.

davidb31 Updated 

To me it looks like a textbook W formation. WTI hit 0.61 fibs, bounced down to retest the whatchamacallit, then back at the golden pocket again. If it gets past, Tp1 is at 81, tp2 84. If it can't, back to the dotted line at 74.5.

davidb31

It might take a while but the index could reach 4980, based upon the inverse H/S. At the moment, I don't think it's gonna retrace much, given its inverse correlation with Natgas.

davidb31 Updated 

We're at support, but a minor one. If we break it, TP1 is 11890, tp2 11660.

davidb31 Updated 

Temporarily down then up to test 106.4 this week or next

davidb31 Updated 

I might be in the minority here - I can see there's a bull flag on the S&P chart, but to me it looks like a retest of the double top. TP 12400.

davidb31 Updated 

On the daily, gold has formed a double bottom , indicating it could go to 1840 shortly, and Fibs wise, it could go to 1860 quite soon too. But as a gold permabear, I'm not worried, because the double top on the monthly and yearly timeframes trumps anything else on other timeframes. I don't want to bore you with fundamental analyses - which I can do in my sleeps...

davidb31 Updated 

Target for this long is 133900 via 133680. Ahead, all eyes turn to the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. The pace of tightening is expected to slow to 25 basis points. But, what traders will be caring about is how the central bank’s outlook evolves relative to market pricing. The market appears more dovish than the Fed, setting the stage for disappointment.

davidb31

In 2005, hedge fund Amaranth booked a profit of $1bn trading Natgas. A year later, it collapsed with $6bn loss as the Widowmaker fell from 16.3 to 4.5. Two years later the price dropped from 14 to 3, a 79% dive. In my previous posts I kept talking about bear flags and shorting NatGas. However I believed that max pain was 3.5, which is 65% from the top - August...

davidb31

On the daily, gold has formed a double bottom, indicating it could go to 1840 shortly, and Fibs wise, it could go to 1860 quite soon too. But as a gold permabear, I'm not breaking a sweat, because the double top on the monthly and yearly timeframes trumps anything else on other timeframes. I don't want to bore you with fundamental analyses - which I can do in my...

davidb31 Updated 

While Storm Elliott was raging outside Wall St and Nymex, bringing temp below -45C, NatGas price plummeted by 50% from its peak in August, the hottest time of the year. Go figure. So what's next? On this particular chart, there's no strong support till $4 or lower and the path less resistant is down. Note: The operative word is particular.

davidb31

US 500 is heading deep down medium term. Short term 3750 with a clear HS.

davidb31 Updated 

After this Monday's gap is filled, I expect Nattie to slide to 5.3 again to make a triple bottom. A smaller bearish flag has formed on the 4h.

davidb31 Updated 

Once the news of Russia's retreat from Ukraine (likely fake) hits, oil and gas prices will spike down so far and so fast your ears will pop. Meanwhile, WTI has more recently dipped below the 80% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move at $70 and borders the middle level of the Biden administration’s $67-$72 range. Price action appears to be respecting this level...

davidb31 Updated 

The H&S is weak, but it's there. Can't help laughing at gold bugs.

davidb31 Updated 

Bitcoin prices are trading in another big zone of technical support and resistance that has formed between Fibonacci levels from the 2017 – 2018 move. With the 23.6% retracement providing support around $15761, the 14.4% fib holds as resistance at $17283.