brianmichaelf

brianmichaelf

looking like we're heading back to the LT trend line of $7,300.

brianmichaelf

Even with all the bearish signs as of late, we still stayed inside the triangle. Now, we've broken below. This, in my opinion, is the most bearish sign for BTC in a while. Could be a buying opportunity, or the start of a free-fall.

brianmichaelf

There's been a lot of back-and-forth in BTC's price action lately, but the trend has not changed. Don't be fooled by the fast jumps and falls, as the lt-trend is still favoring a $8,000 end-point in the near-future. Unless you're day-trading, just be patient, wait for this triangle to end its course. We're almost there.

brianmichaelf

BTC is flirting with the long-term trend line here. Last time that happened (circled for reference), it bounced way up, and I expect the same here. Could be a great buying opportunity.

brianmichaelf

Wow, what a few days! New outlook drops bull scenario to $9800 (from $12k), bear scenario still at $7,300. Things are looking pretty bearish atm.

brianmichaelf

It's going down for real right now. Prediction --> $7,300

brianmichaelf

After yesterday's sharp decline, BTC is now re-testing the LT bear trend starting back in Dec (crazy how that is "long term"). If this was a re-correction towards the trend, I think we'll continue to correct until about $7,300, at which point we should be "done" correcting. To drop any further than that would be SUPER bearish imo. On the other hand, if...

brianmichaelf

BTC has broken the Long-term trendline, which is great, but finding resistance at the same previous levels of $11,500. Would be a bearish sign to LT hodlers if BTC can't pass that threshold again.

brianmichaelf

BTC is closing the day above the trendline, may be a bullish move, could be "overbought." We'll see, but if we trend up another day or so, that would be VERY bullish, especially after a terrible week in the SPX.

brianmichaelf

BTCUSD is enjoing a nice run today, but don't be fooled, until we break that resistance line we're still in bearish territory. I'm thinking it comes down to the $7,000 rage at somepoint, maybe in the next 30-45 days. If it breaks that lt trend line, maybe the run is over, but for now, we're still hibernating.

brianmichaelf

I posted this idea a few days ago, suggesting we'd get some resistance around $11,500. We made it up to about $11,700, and now are heading back down towards the long-term trend line. I think we're going to get down to about $6900-7200, then that should be the end of this downtrend.

brianmichaelf

Could go either way right here. Are we going to see some resistance at the $11,500 range? If so, how far down do we re-correct? If we breakout here, we're going to the moon! Watching closely today

brianmichaelf

Based on long-term trend lines, I'm guessing BTC enjoys this nice little run-up until about $11,500-ish, then has a healthy correction back to the $6k-7k range, before going to the moon. If you're trading frequently, perhaps a sell opportunity since, if not, I'd continue HODL'ing. PS - I know nothing. Invest wisely.

brianmichaelf

Looks like the SPX is starting to re-test the LT trend lines. It'll be interesting to see if we start coming back down to more "middle of the pack" growth, or if tries to take-off back to ATHs. Personally I think this is more of a "fakeout", and we'll see a bigger drop coming. In past corrections/recessions, there's always two drops. We had the first one, now a...

brianmichaelf

It'll be interesting to see what happens when BTC starts to test that $10,600-10,800 range. LT trend analysis says we should see a correction at said point, but if it breaks out we could see quite the Bull run! Exciting times.

brianmichaelf

Although it appeared we may have been ready for another BTC bull run over the last few days, I'm afraid it was nothing more than a "fakeout." On the day chart, it still looks like we have some way to go down, thinking re-entry point around $6,400.

brianmichaelf Updated 

BTC broke the regression trend, looks like $15,000 was the support it needed to push back upwards.

brianmichaelf

BTC is looking like it's forming a descending triangle, may be time to short