andyhitchman

andyhitchman

I am more naturally bullish on crypto than bearish. My recent bearish analysis ( ) is based on short-term (monthly) movements. Longer term, I see massive expansion as crypto goes mainstream and BTC reigns as the defacto base pair and store of value. Elliott wave counting and to a lesser extent TD Sequential are the only tools I have to extrapolate future...

andyhitchman

We have a head and shoulders with a higher left shoulder and a target around $5650. My Elliot Wave count shows an current wave 5 could extend to a ratio of 1.618 to wave 1 giving a downside target of $8700. (Corrected extension---chart shows incorrect fib extension) We have a 100% retracement from 25 Nov breakout at $8360 and I would expect strong support...

andyhitchman

Possible bottom in. Still below 10D, 30D EMA and longer SMAs. Needs to break out of down trending channel on good volume and start a Buy TD Sequence. Has faded multi-day breakouts before. Wait for major trend line to be broken for a safe entry. No good indicator signals to confirm at this time. Waiting for confirmation.

andyhitchman

Broken channel and down trending resistance. Making tentative higher lows. Broken above 10D and 30D EMA. 10, 30 & 50D SMA converging, which is a strong lead to a potential reversal. Bullish indications on 1D MACD-H, RSI and EFI. Stochastic showing slightly overbought. Expecting a 2--4 correction and then bullish behaviour. Will long if can break and hold above...

andyhitchman

Possible falling wedge may break in upside reversal. Will likely under-perform Bitcoin for next weeks. $8 support weak and failed. $6.75 next support from LHS funnel and prior spikes down. 1D TD 3S. Price below moving 1D 10 EMA, 30 EMA, 50 SMA, 100 SMA. Volume declining. 1D MACD-H bullish divergence. No RSI or EFI confirmation. No trade or Short to 6.75. Then...

andyhitchman Updated 

1-day TD sequential got to 8 sell and currently a 1 buy (candle not yet closed) Supported on channel bottom. 4H chart shows bullish divergences on MACD, RSI & EFI Volume shows accumulation. I am long.

andyhitchman

BTCUSD rising wedge with possible breakdown on a measured move to $2700 -- $2850.

andyhitchman

Lots of fib extension lines converging at this point. Is this a strong indicator of the final top for this bubble? If so, then I expect a rapid correction with a bounce and then a return to the long term trend. Incidentally, the box in the chart is from my original charting showing my expected bubble development (the upside and downside was cleaned off a little...

andyhitchman

After wavering inside the pennant it duly fell ~65% in and retraced 50% of the falling flag. I'm seeing another small pennant and a fall to $145; the long-term trend line that started in March.

andyhitchman

Broken neck line on H&S. 50% retracement of neck to head from here down. Major support at $27, so may settle just above here.

andyhitchman

It all lined up a little too neatly for my liking, but then I guess charts are a little like statistics---enough massaging and you can make them say anything you want. Food for thought (and absolutely not a prediction).

andyhitchman Updated 

A little bit of panic!

andyhitchman

Looking at the descending flag from ATH, we are near the top of the channel and are testing the long-term 50% retracement---which was recently strongly rejected (long 13% wick) . However, I believe momentum continues to build to the upside. The price appears to be consolidating into the (admittedly heavily skewed) funnel. We may see major volume in the next two...

andyhitchman

I expect BTC to pull-back short-term to around 2500 before consolidating as SegWit confirms. I think it will then recover the ATH and then move in to a long-term uptrend.