adatherton

adatherton

RACE didn't really perform in the first lap, and in the first three months would not have made the qualifiers. But in Feb 16, the accelerator was pushed hard, and has reached a top of 150 this summer, and is still just under the ton. No reason why the British best of breed shouldn't do the same thing. Join the race a bit later in the Spring season, when the new...

adatherton

The XLU (Utilities ETF) is a well-known defensive (succeeds in troubled economies, you have to buy their product) and has a very clear channel. My trade enters at the bottom of the channel and so allows for further market weakness. The price only matched the previous top last time, so I am playing safe with that top as a target, rather than going to the top of the channel.

adatherton Updated 

Crosses are not directly affected by US policy. A clear support line with a stop below the September low gives me a 3.9:1 trade.

adatherton Updated 

Dow component and consumer staples giant PG has only falled 5.6% from the highs, compared to nearly 20% in the general market. It did not participate in the second of the three collapses in Q4. The price action from July-August can now be seen as the upper half of a pitchfork, and we are now at the lower half and right on the 50-day SMA. This is a gamble on Q4...

adatherton

Many commentators are saying this is a bear market, and it is certainly true that on the last two occasions when the market came 20% off its highs, it went on to fall around 50% before recovering (although June-Sep 1998 was a notable exception, see left of chart). So what if it is? Where will the market go. We need to view the whole bull market from March 2009,...

adatherton

If you overlay the SPX from its last low on May 3 to the NIFTY chart, there is a very good fit up to the top, and the recoveries are similar to the SPX on Nov 7 and Dec 3. This suggest NIFTY may not have had its crash yet (although optimists would say NIFTY was ahead, fully corrected and recovering). January will tell, but there is little support before the Sep...

adatherton Updated 

The French CAC40 index appears to be leading USDJPY by 9 weeks. There is no reason why it should (other than the big macro picture, USDJPY falls on in risk-off sentiment and so do equities). Let's see!

adatherton

XLF is at the bottom of a channel from 2012. The fact that we are there is a positive for the whole market.

adatherton

Drawing a line from the 1929 top through the 2000 top, the two great bubbles of the last 100 years is surprisingly consistent with the lower line when viewed on a log scale, which is the only scale that makes sense for long-term charts. It is then not hard to find events which caused the market to touch the edges of the pitchfork.

adatherton Updated 

XLU, the SPDR Utility Sector is well-known, high div paying defensive, and has not broken support like SPY as a whole. Let's play safe with a 1.6:1 trade, with stop below the lower tramline and target the confluence high of the bullish and moderate cases, as shown by the regular and dotted lines. Aggressive traders could set the stop at 53.75, reflecting the...

adatherton Updated 

With the current bearish climate in stocks, and Trump pressing for a weaker dollar/lower rates, and also given previous price/action, there is an extremely strong chance Gold will make the 50% fib ($1262) and probably the 61.8% ($1286). You can also see the Jun/Jul 2018 drop through this range was fairly smooth, so I don't expect much resistance. However, it's...

adatherton Updated 

I was struck by the very low volume on the 500-point drop on Friday Dec 14th, the marubozu pattern (no tails), and the fact it was at channel bottom. All these suggest a pull back up.

adatherton Updated 

The NKY appears to be about four days ahead of SPX on a fairly precise timeline. (Both are futures, trading nearly 24h). Let's see how long the match lasts.