adatherton

adatherton

For a pedestrian industry, DAL has shown bullish consolidation in a rising channel for years. The Golden Cross (50d SMA crossing 200d SMA) today follows stronger than usual price/action, similar to the last one in Nov 2016., where there was a 38.2% retracement before continuing upwards, this time 53.24. We allow a little more because of the earnings gap, and enter...

adatherton Updated 

AXP missed on earnings and revenue Thu 18th, but only dropped 0.28%. However, their 'miss' was doubling profit from $2.75B to $6.92B. Because it is regarded as banking, the stock trades at a PE of 13.5 compared to 30 for Mastercard and Visa. It was up 1.95% pre-earning on double normal volume. Tefchnicals show a cup and handle and a golden cross...

adatherton

Utilities are defensive and traditionally do well in summer, when risk stocks suffer from ‘Sell in May’. In the last six consolidations, which often start around May, the price moves up after the consolidation ends. Overall, the ETF has followed a clear parallel channel for four years now, and it is affected much less by macro events. Each consolidation has been...

adatherton

The last time GOOGL missed on earnings was 18Q2, and the price action into that is very similar to that from December 2018. In both cases there is - a rise before earnings of just over 30% in a clear parallel channel to around 1290 - a drop into a lower pitchfork channel, losing 10% to around 1155 - a 50% fib deadcat bounce to around 1220 - then a return to the...

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1. Head and Shoulders pattern emerging 2. Top looks like the tops in 2016 and early 2018 3. Fits long-term wedge 4. I have extended lines for a perfect EW (5=1, 3 longest) 5. Equity risk-on supports move. 6. Weakening AUD and ZAR are in line. The only fly in the ointment is a weakening dollar, widely predicted although we haven't seem many signs of this. The...

adatherton Updated 

Looking for a reversal here, although previous touches go through for a few days. Entry perhaps at 1.3095. There is stronger support at 1.3025, best to place stops below this. Target 1.3665, previous high. RR 6.14:1

adatherton

A fairly good pattern patch, and makes fundamental sense. We'll see, after the RBA next week. I've entered a possible Kiwi trade.

adatherton Updated 

GBPJPY flash crashed in the pre-Asian session on Oct 6, 2016, and did so again on Jan 3, 2019. The first was a GBP issue, the second was a JPY issue. Nevertheless, watch this fractal (2h chart) will be interesting. I am not expecting much, just want to see it progress.

adatherton Updated 

The Australian dollar is a known proxy for copper, so the recent rally may be a leader for a rally in the currency.

adatherton Updated 

A close match in the chart, suggests TCEHY will fall to $30.

adatherton Updated 

What if this is not a bear market. Has the market ever fallen 20% and then recovered. Well it did of course on that famous day in 1987. The low was in on the first day. The last time a correction exceeded 20% but went no further was twenty years ago in August and (double-bottom) October 1998. The charts show some, if not complete similarity to 1998. It was...

adatherton Updated 

Friday's rally was strong, and although NFP euphoria fades, the Powell 'patient' remark and the resumption of China talks are very positive. An A-B-C rally takes us to the .618 retrace from the last high, which is close to the .5 retrace seen in the 20% drop in 1998, for example, and in 2016, before the inevitable double bottom some time in Q1. After that, it's...

adatherton

The pullback may be over now, but the lower trend line suggests the possibility of one more low.

adatherton Updated 

Crosses are of course not directly affected by dollar strength, this could be regarded as a milk/oil play, or more likely, a failure of the left-wing NZ government versus an oil recovery, and strong Canadian growth/jobs data. A long-term play of course.

adatherton Updated 

Confluence of two trend support lines suggest the pair will revert to mean and go back up. It might go from here, or reach the 200-day simple moving average first.

adatherton

Gold has had a great run since stocks collapsed, but it is now at 61.8% fib, and overbought. Note Gold does react to Fib and RSI, and also this time of year in 2018 showed it was not always reliable as as inverse to stocks. I am trying a short back to the 50% fib, not the greatest trade, with a 1% stop. My previous trade was to buy to this point. If you don't...

adatherton Updated 

If you look at the USDJPY pattern from last year (there was a rate hike on Dec 13, 2017), a top and then three increasingly lower tops before a strong pullback, it looks very much like this year, 49 weeks later. Supporting this is a mirror fractal (shown in yellow) from the last recovery. If the pattern continues, we could see 105-106 in March 2019. The pattern...

adatherton Updated 

Within the tramlines, we have a clear entry into W5 after the long W3. Playing safe, I am trading 5=1 equivalence (the length of W5 is the same as W1, and shorting a 2:1 trade for 1.241 target. Fundamentals are in sync, there is still no clear path to a Brexit deal. The stop is just above the W4 end/tramline. In reality 1.2284 is quite possible.