UnknownUnicorn103267

UnknownUnicorn103267

Large volume and a wick after an extended down move in Natgas. Also forward curve is bullish relative to spot price. Don't buy UNG because of the roll decay, buy the spread NGH2018-NGJ2018.

UnknownUnicorn103267

ERF has had a large run up relative to other companies in it's industry. There is a large wick with large volume, this is a sell signal to me. I'd pair this short off with some long XOP but either way I believe it should work.

UnknownUnicorn103267

Sears is almost bankrupt but has just struck a deal with AMZN. There is a double bottom with a lot of volume coming in. This is a classic set up for me, let see if it works in a most likely to go bankrupt company.

UnknownUnicorn103267

Buy crude oil, sell the 3:2:1 crack spread. The hard part is the ratio you should use.

UnknownUnicorn103267

Silver has been selling off here. It has reached some technical resistance and has had large volume last couple of days.

UnknownUnicorn103267

EWY has gone on a huge run but pulled back lately due to concerns regarding the Syria missile strikes. It has lost about 5.5% from the highs but we are starting to see volume coming in here. The combination of a geopolitical event that is indirectly related and volume increase makes me a buyer at these levels.

UnknownUnicorn103267

XLE is in a larger uptrend from last February - it has pulled back to a consolidation range - there is large volume on the recent down move, these are buyers to me - this sector is lagging the over all market - we are entering seasonally bullish period for oil I'm a buyer here, now that can be buying the underline, leveraged buying the underline, or selling...

UnknownUnicorn103267

China had a monstrous collapse in 2015, after that rally it is now showing some short term weakness. The problems they face are currency, slowing growth, and house prices. I believe that house price may effect stock prices but it shouldn't be something that effects the whole market because the problem is evident, when we know about the problem we protect against...

UnknownUnicorn103267

Within the interest rate cycle all countries are at different phases, Japan is the leader followed by Europe followed by USA followed by Emerging Markets. With an interest rate around 6.2% they are far from the lower band thus behind the USA in the cycle. Since the USA had rates around 6.2% coming down from 8% in the 1990s we can assume this is about where India...

UnknownUnicorn103267

Natgas has been on a great run because of the cold area over Canada that may enter the USA. However last two days it has become less like to enter the plains. As natgas is overbought, calendar spreads showing relative weakness, and larger than normal volumes in inverse etfs, all these factors support my opinion of warmer weather next week. aka lower natgas prices.

UnknownUnicorn103267

Just long wheat covered calls for the next 3 years.

UnknownUnicorn103267 Updated 

Natural Gas in seasonally slightly bearish, the dec16-dec17 spread is showing a lot of weakness compared to the spot price. I'm short from around 2.9 looking for 2.75 and we'll see from there.

UnknownUnicorn103267

Notes on Chart

UnknownUnicorn103267

we know XOM is the largest and best integrated in the business. However, last couple weeks it has heavily under performed the XLE. Lets look for a convergence in price. Long XOM and short XLE in a 1:1 ratio. (I'm still learning how to properly match volatility in pairs trades but I think this should be ok) FYI not real money just recording it here for learning purposes

UnknownUnicorn103267

Gold companies have rallied well vs gold itself since january. Let's see if this reverts. I think I properly volatility (not a expert on this) 2.666 the notional value in gold vs 1 notional value in gdx. not doing this with really money just a theoretical exercise.

UnknownUnicorn103267

I'm mostly recording this for my own personal records. The crude oil market has been fundamentally bearish and therefore price has dropped from 52ish to 40ish. Today we got a clearly bearish EIA report, however the gasoline draw was large it was not enough to offset the others. Price initially dropped to new lows and since has rallied to almost 41. So the...

UnknownUnicorn103267

I don't trade wheat and won't be taking this trade. I just want keep an accurate log of this idea. The spreads have stopped dropping and are rising while the front month price has continued to sell off. In addition the price of wheat has been in a steady downtrend with in increased rate downward lately, so may be a climax of selling. Seasonally wheat should...

UnknownUnicorn103267

Short RBZ2016 long HOZ2016. Last year the price of RBOB rise relative to the price of HO. Refineries switched to produce more RBOB compared to HO we are now seeing weakness in RBOB compared to HO due to over supply. Looking for $-0.3 As described by traders in industry trade is the widow maker because of the volatility within it.