Tiomarkets

Tiomarkets

On Friday 19th November USOIL hit the SMA(20) in the 8h chart and the sellers took control of the market. As a result, the market dropped over five per cent after the rally failed. We said (in a previous analysis here blog.tiomarkets.com) that if the 77.58 low is violated decisively, the next important support level is at 74.73. This level was hit in todays...

Tiomarkets

Another week of markets treading warily around every Covid headline. The US continues to see increases in cases in southern states as Florida now holds the title of ‘Epicenter’ for new cases. While the leading health experts continue to push for the wearing of masks in public, President Trump continues to refuse to pass such a mandate. Still the financial...

Tiomarkets

Each day and each week becomes a micro-analysis of the daily Covid 19 headlines. Headlines from the US tend to dominate but we would be foolish to ignore global developments. Moves in the US equity markets continue to dominate trader’s thoughts as the rally from the lows of a couple of months ago continues. The Nasdaq continues to make almost daily all-time...

Tiomarkets

Global markets attention has turned rapidly to the disturbing increases in Covid 19 cases among certain US states. Wednesday’s pullback in stocks was rather surprisingly reversed on Thursday. Would Friday see more of the same, would some semblance of sanity and realism return? After all, thoughts of healthcare systems being over-run in Florida and Texas can...

Tiomarkets

What a week this has been. This commentary used to be all about FX, but as we have seen yet again, its equity market moves that have taken center stage. Day after day we have seen equity markets rally with the Nasdaq making a new all time high above 10,000. All of this in the face of an ongoing global pandemic, record unemployment, a global recession which some...

Tiomarkets

The first Friday of the month is upon us and that can only mean one thing. US NFP day. Given the ongoing pandemic and the mind boggling weekly initial and continuing claims data there is an expectant air of doom and gloom. It will be bad. Horrendous maybe. But how bad? Throw in some similar data north of the border and Friday is shaping up for a day of...

Tiomarkets

A new month and a new week is upon us. The global pandemic continues with a dose of mass civil unrest and curfews being imposed in several major US cities. The US and China seem to be getting further apart as Hong Kong faces new security laws from the mainland. And although many countries are beginning to open up, the real economic fall out from Covid 19 is...

Tiomarkets

Friday would be all about US Retail Sales data for April. Like all US data at the moment, in fact all data regardless of geographic derivation, we know it will be bad. The question is, how bad? This would be set against a mixed backdrop. Friday would be the day that Slovakia declared itself the first European country to be Covid-19 free. NZ continued to relax...

Tiomarkets

Tuesday started off with a positive tone but by the end of the day, equity markets were under pressure as traders showed their nervousness about the re-opening of the US economy as well as those in Europe. Spikes in the number of German cases as well as fears about the potential for a similar outcome in many US states sparked a downturn in stocks. Testimony...

Tiomarkets

The new week begins with markets digesting Friday’s record unemployment numbers from the US. The historic losses were initially shrugged off by traders and designated as ‘not as bad as expected’. Monday would also see lock-down restrictions eased in France, Spain and the UK. On Sunday UK PM Boris Johnson announced a road-map to easing restrictions with people...

Tiomarkets

The first Friday of a new month. We all know what that means in the FX world – US Non-Farm Payroll data. Normally the FX community gathers around their collective screens excitedly awaiting the release with a miss of 30k jobs in either direction sparking a flurry of activity. A change in the unemployment rate of 0.2-0.3% can have traders frantically reacting to...

Tiomarkets

Tuesday would see mixed headlines on our favorite market mover – Covid-19. On the positive side we are seeing decreasing death rates in Italy and Spain and a gradual re-opening of 2 of the hardest hit nations. Australia and NZ continue to open up, even proposing a safe ‘travel bubble’ between the 2. In the US, some states are opening up. Companies like...

Tiomarkets

A new day and a new month is upon us. April really saw the Covid-19 pandemic explode around the world with alarming increases in both infection and death rates globally. As countries put measures in place to control the spread of the coronavirus, we saw the very stark economic affects with over 30 million people in the US alone filing for unemployment benefits....

Tiomarkets

Well, here we go again. The daily routine of looking for positives that might outweigh the negatives. On the positive side I note that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his fiancé welcome a baby boy into the world. Given the PM was gravely ill only a couple of weeks ago, this is welcome news even if its not a market mover. Elsewhere we note differing...

Tiomarkets

The new week would begin on a positive note with equities rallying and the USD generally softer across the board. However oil prices would continue to slide as storage and short-term demand issues linger. Countries such as New Zealand announced they had effectively eradicated Covid-19 while some European countries like Austria and the Czech Republic continue to...

Tiomarkets

Friday would bring to an end quite an extraordinary week. A week where the price of Oil went negative and the President of the US suggested ingesting or injecting disinfectants and the like as an interesting approach to battling Covid-19. If you didn’t have a Trump / disinfectant meme in your inbox on Friday morning, the chances are you just arrived from...

Tiomarkets

The daily themes are becoming all too familiar. And with that comes a routine I find myself following each day. Wake up, check the update for my county on Long Island to see the number of new cases in my town. See how many more have died, if the number of people in ICUs has decreased etc. Then do the same for my hometown in the UK. Next, check the Oil price –...

Tiomarkets

A new week but an all too familiar focus. On the downside, global infections of Covid-19 continue to rise. Economies continue to suffer in their almost frozen state. Virgin Atlantic and United Airlines are both screaming out for government assistance. Meanwhile the price of oil drops to 21-year lows. Good luck finding storage – there is none left. On the plus...