TheSleepyTrader

TheSleepyTrader

Looking at the price action to the news on Friday there was a lot of heavy selling following some relatively flat numbers against expectations. The employment costs index was down and caused a move up but the big move at 3pm came from the consumer sentiment which 93.1 against a 94.2 expectation. This move up was halted at the 1.111-1.112 level which has acted as...

TheSleepyTrader

Descriptions are on the chart, but I I think we are heading a lot lower on Bitstamp. Price has dropped through the 200 MA on 4 hour ticks, we are about to get a MA cross over (also crossing the 200 MA) and MACD has failed to cross 0 with a strong bearish divergence. I think we will find some support around $700 and then fall further to $570 - 600 (possibly lower...

TheSleepyTrader

I'm still long term bullish on Bitcoin, but the recent price rises have been extremely fast and in my opinion over value the asset now. If you look at the chart (which is based on another chart that was published). You can see a double top forming as well as a flag. Adding in the MACD we have a lower high than we had in late November the last time we touched...

TheSleepyTrader

We look to be in a closing wedge on the 1 hour ticks that might indicate some further losses on the USD/BTC price (or buying opportunities). Looking at the charts we have had resistance at $780 multiple times as well as what looks like a lot of sell volume during the Asian hours followed by low volume buying in the opening of Europe. The blue trend line is...

TheSleepyTrader

Hitting $450 is an important milestone for Bitcoin. Long term I am still long, but short term I don't see how these rises can be sustained. $100 dollars in a week, Bitcoins are great but there isn't 450x the usage or services available that there were a year ago. This is largely being driven by media interest and the opening of BTChina (and there is a lot of...

TheSleepyTrader

Well, my previous idea of the BTC price dropping back to the $250 level seems unfounded. There is a lot of support at $300 currently and I think it would need something fairly serious, like an unfavourable outcome from the US Senate hearing, to push it below that level. However it seems the market views $400 as too expensive short term. We're now (14:00 on 12th...

TheSleepyTrader

Looks like the correction is here - Hit an all time high around 12 GMT at $395 before heavy selling. There was heavy selling overnight GMT (starting around midnight) which is when China is starting to wake up. The shortest moving average has now, for the first time during the recent rise, turned down while the others have levelled out. Shortest MA is now forming...

TheSleepyTrader

I've been looking at the 1 day tick chart for BTC/USD following the massive drop we saw yesterday and I think we are now starting to get enough time with actual volume and price movement to see some reliable lines of support/resistance appearing. I'm not going to make a short term price prediction as this is more of an observation chart. The $ values quoted here...

TheSleepyTrader

A very speculative chart given the lack of historical data, but the lines do seem to match up. We've gone bullish now with the EMA crossover (see last chart). If you look at the two channels drawn, sorry annotations aren't great, from the low in Jan and July (after the last rise) then you can see there are clear crossover points at the lines of support/resistance...

TheSleepyTrader

A quick chart with two EMA's and my estimated channel. I think we are seeing the shorter EMA providing support - The yellow line is the current line of resistance I'm seeing as the market moves up. If we break that I estimate we'll then see the pink line forming the next resistance with the yellow forming on-going support. The market seems to be moving in tandem...