TheRealPeaches

TheRealPeaches

I have taken a tactical short position in German Bunds - based on little more that the fact that we're at the top of a channel range. I prepared to get stopped out, if we being to move higher.

TheRealPeaches

A new shorting opportunity may be coming soon in Copper. My downside targets will be the break of the neckline, and then to the lower line. Next week should be critical in determining whether copper is ready to initiate a further down move.

TheRealPeaches

We are losing momentum here in Gold. There is a tradable short opportunity soon. I would hope for one more run higher before shorting, but we may not even get it. The trade also may not be as clean as one would like - I expect some choppiness at these levels. My first target short would be the 1170 area, followed by a break of 1000 later in the year.

TheRealPeaches

We are close to "make your mind up time" in NIFTY 50. Are you a right shoulder? Or are you the start of a new bull trend. If you're a right shoulder, we are close to the sweet spot for a short. Stoch RSI is overbought, curling over, 21 MA is down. I will initiate short positions next week on a reaction high.

TheRealPeaches

We are in a shorting zone here, as prior support-turned-resistance. I currently have no position, but I will be ready to initiate shorts if I see weakness intraday. A new major low has not been ruled out, though I believe the bulk of the down move has already occured.

TheRealPeaches

GBPUSD successfully negated downside movement over the critical November and December period. Collapse has been staved off, for now. Upside targets are 1.35 and 1.38. A weekly close back into the consolidation zone would shift me neutral.

TheRealPeaches

Gold priced in British Pounds has made a tentative break today. This is not necessarily a Gold trade, but a warning that the British Pound is weak, and a further breakdown is imminent. Gold is caught in a bullish Dollar's crossfire, but Gold relative to GBP is telling is that a substantial currency move may be coming. The GBPUSD has been grinding support for...

TheRealPeaches Updated 

If one were to plot the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the British Pound, since the beginning of the USD as a standalone currency, you would find one of the most consistent bear trends of the last 2-3 centuries. If one were to look at the decline of the Pound against the USD from the end of WWII to the present day, you would find an even more defined...

TheRealPeaches

NG broke out of a symmetrical triangle in textbook fashion. I'm long from the break out and targeting the resistance line in a larger channel formation, although I took some profit today. I'm an optimist by nature, and I'm glad to be long something in my portfolio.

TheRealPeaches

I came into the Oil market 3 weeks ago, ready to short the break. Shamefully, I was stopped out before my trade could progress. Stops were too tight. A painful lesson. Oil has now crashed through my initial target (purple), and seems to be aiming at 45. This was a missed trade.

TheRealPeaches

I remain short gold. It was not even able to touch the break-down resistance line, which is an inherent sign of weakness. We are now falling back into the original box we broke out of in October, again pointing to weakness. Any hesitation in the Dollar's inevitable rise will produce a bounce to add to a short. I will short any bounce against the October 22...

TheRealPeaches

The French stock market is painting an inverted triangle formation. Though not yet confirmed, this can portend lower prices ahead. We are currently rounding over. A weekly close above the prior weeks' high would negate bearishness for now, whilst a weekly closing below the last swing low would confirm the pattern and target the purple area. While pundits claim...

TheRealPeaches

We are witnessing a softening in the market. The Dow Jones Industrials appear to be a mixed bag. Buying blind is NOT the strategy at this point - it worked for 10 years, now the easy money has been made. As suspected, the mid-term elections have not been without incident, and investors are naturally cautious. Many big stocks are confirming bearish topping...

TheRealPeaches

This is an interesting chart. Gold priced in Pounds was rejected at the Hypotenuse resistance of a descending triangle, reflecting a bounce in the Pound. This is a bearish formation and indicates either a) incoming extreme Gold weakness, or b) a period of possible GBP strength. Since the fundamentals favor the Dollar, I am prepared to bet against its...

TheRealPeaches

The Dow appears to be carving an Inverse H&S. The election result still has room to create risk-off knee jerk reactions intraday. I will take advantage of any drops, trading against the low of October 29th. A daily closing below the spike low of October 11 would somewhat negate the pattern, although I will look to the candle structure before making a trade.

TheRealPeaches

Last week was a large range week, in which the market broke below triangle pattern support, and quickly reversed, finishing positive. This is normal. A false break will typically occur in a triangle reaching its apex. It is also possible to interpret this as an Inverse head and shoulders, with a sloping neckline. Either way, the measured move target for a long...

TheRealPeaches

Question: if someone held a gun to your head, and forced you to pick a 5 year+ forex pair that would capitalize on a USD bull market, which pair would it be? Answer: USDCHF The Swiss Franc has long since lost it's save haven status, and its largest trading partner is the EU, the failed 4th Reich. The Dollar remains the most sought-after currency in the...

TheRealPeaches

The US elections next week are an obvious inflection point, not just for the US but for stocks globally. The initial reaction would be easy to gauge: up for Trump, down for the Democrats. If the Democrats take control then they will reverse all of Trump's progress. The market reaction would be negative. That is not to say that the market rally would be dead. In...