TennHedge

TennHedge

The easy way to trade the S&P on long time horizons: if rates are being cut, go long. If rates are rising, go short. Feels like the Federal Reserve is about sink this market after being largely responsible for its rise. Trade accordingly and at your own risk.

TennHedge Updated 

Bitcoin is making new 2020 highs, and is on the cusp of breaking its 2019 high of $13868. After that, the all-time high of ~$20,000/coin is in play. Now is a great time to be accumulating BTC.

TennHedge

Buying $MSTR call options, given the company's sizable Bitcoin holdings, has been a convenient way to speculate on rising Bitcoin prices with leverage. It's not uncommon for the stock to appreciate +10% on a 5-8% Bitcoin move, and the corresponding calls 500-1000% or more. This trade requires a hefty risk tolerance, as it goes south rather quickly if Bitcoin pulls...

TennHedge Updated 

It is a curious thing for the VIX to move higher for three days in a row now, as the market makes new highs. I view this as an indication of the S&P nearing a market top.

TennHedge Updated 

I think 2020 will be known as the year of the two market crashes. The first catalyst was the coronavirus pandemic, and now the coming U.S. Presidential election will be the second - but markets don't always need an obvious catalyst, they will find one. RSI is at a YTD high and is at the highest reading since January 2018, when RSI reached 89. I don't think RSI...

TennHedge Updated 

Bitcoin appears to be consolidating after a critical breakout of a multi-year downtrend last month, and remains on a decisively bullish path. This sort of consolidation is healthy during a bull market, and is occurring as Bitcoin remains above every major moving average and is trading at an RSI level that is not anywhere near overbought for the digital asset.

TennHedge Updated 

Are we witnessing the greatest bear market rally of all time, or are we poised to begin a new bull market? We are at an inflection point in the market right now. We either push to new all-time highs, or undergo a massive reversal to the downside. My feeling is that we will see a reversal right now.

TennHedge Updated 

I think the current price action is very similar to the action from late May to early June.

TennHedge

Bitcoin has broken out of a major downtrend. Could this be the start of a long-awaited bull cycle? The macro picture is there, precious metals are rallying. As Paul Tudor Jones stated, Bitcoin could become the "fastest horse," here, despite being slow out of the gate.

TennHedge Updated 

The S&P is trading below the 20 day EMA level for the first time since April 3rd. This represents a shift in the short-term trend to the downside - and a likely test of the March 23rd low. I am short here.

TennHedge Updated 

There are a number of bearish conditions currently on the S&P 500 chart: 1. Death cross (50 day SMA crossing below the 200 day SMA). 2. 10 day EMA has broken and is now acting as resistance. 3. RSI back to neutral levels - room to give. I am short here and am also selling out-of-the-money calls on the SPY.

TennHedge Updated 

Bitcoin is currently accumulating at a level that seems to indicate a price floor for the historical bullish trend, at least using the Coinbase chart as I do. Not a bad time to be stacking Sats here in my opinion.

TennHedge Updated 

Oil is nearing a key support level around $16/bbl that stretches all the way back to 2001. If that level fails, there is another key support level ~$10.50/bbl which goes all the back to the late 80's I would have my eye on. I am going to be a speculative long buyer of oil if it breaks $20/bbl.

TennHedge Updated 

The S&P 500 is at a critical support level right now. We have already soundly broken the bull market trend we have been in since 2009, and are currently looking for any kind of floor in the index. December 2018's low was an important support level for the market previously, it remains to be seen if this could act as a price floor in the near-term.

TennHedge Updated 

Bitcoin, from a technical perspective, is really looking bullish here. We are safely back above the 200 day simple moving average and have also reclaimed a critical short term indicator in the 10 day exponential moving average. The 14 day relative strength index is pointing to a rise in buying pressure, we have a healthy level of RSI here. It looks like to me we...

TennHedge Updated 

The S&P 500 chart is looking very bearish here. Double top pattern playing out, multi-year (going back to 2009) price ceiling has been tested and failed. 10 day EMA breakdown is a short entry for me.

TennHedge Updated 

We could be seeing a prime short entry opportunity for Tesla if it shows weakness here. I will be looking for a potential double top pattern to emerge here.

TennHedge Updated 

If you look at the channel this bull market has created since the 2009 low, we are very over-extended here. I think price is going to revert to the mean here. It could get ugly.