SteveTobin

SteveTobin

This might be the first trade of the new year, my wave count suggests the correction from mid 2015 ended with a truncation in early 2018. The break of the black trendline suggests the move lower is complete. I will be looking to buy early in the new year.

SteveTobin Updated 

This is the map I have been using for Bitcoin, it allowed me to buy twice in 2017 to great effect but I have not been able to trade so far in 2018. The map is at an interesting point, I have price in a downward triangle correction for the final part of a 3-way move from the all-time high. The first part of the move lower was a pretty clear A-B-C(blue in...

SteveTobin Updated 

The chart shows a potential wave count for the NZDUSD, the chart is a little complicated but shows the NZDUSD correcting higher in repeated three-wave moves beginning in August 2015 (marked W-X-Y red). The second of which red W-X(a corrective down move blue a-b-c circled) may have finished just short of its projected area the yellow box. If the count is correct,...

SteveTobin Updated 

The yen pairs appear to be moving higher despite an increase in risk to trade in the global markets. Sentiment appears to be holding up, perhaps to do with the good economic data we are receiving at the moment, however, in recent trading days we have had a lot of trade war noise. The US seems to be serious about the next $200bn of tariffs against China and that...

SteveTobin Updated 

Tomorrow has some potentially market-moving news. It is the first Friday of the month which means we get the usual raft of data from the US, the headline is the NFP figure followed by the unemployment rate in the US and this months big ticket item the average hourly earnings. If earnings pick up above the forecast 2.8% (last month 2.7%) then it will add real...

SteveTobin Updated 

Later today the Bank of Canada will announce its latest interest rate decision. The probability of a rate hike is greater than 90% (according to overnight swaps) so we can almost guarantee such a move, the economic data out of Canada has been quite poor in recent months and this must have had an effect on the banks thinking. The last statement we had was very...

SteveTobin Updated 

With the two government resignations today there is a realistic probability that the UK government is going to implode over the summer. Mrs May has worked hard to keep things together but it is looking almost impossible to keep going without the Brexiteers on board. Her party does not support the soft (non-brexit) that she is proposing and it is quite likely...

SteveTobin

I have already posted my US Dollar bullish option for tomorrow which is based on good US data and an increase in trade war noise. I think that is the most likely outcome but as always in trading, we should look at the best alternative. If the US data is not better than expected and the trade wars do not get going then I like the idea of selling the USDCAD. The...

SteveTobin Updated 

Adding to my short NZD positions with this short on NZDJPY. The market has had a risk on bounce but the trend for risk is lower so I am happy to take this opportunity to sell. The NZDJPY is in a confirmed downtrend, I have it as wave 3 of C which could be a powerful and significant move if risk trends falter again. A few trump tweets would really help this...

SteveTobin Updated 

NZDUSD has made a new low in recent hours suggesting that the recent pullback is complete and that the blue wave 4 is in place. This has important implications for the other two live trades at the moment, it is my view that we just have one market so when the NZDUSD confirms it is going lower it implies that the rest of the US pairs will follow and also make new...

SteveTobin Updated 

I have sold the NZD against the USD, EUR and CAD this morning. I have taken small trades because they are effectively the same trade I just could not decide which is the best of the three. The RBNZ was really dovish in their recent monetary policy report saying they thought the chance of a rate cut was just as likely as a rate hike, this puts them at the...

SteveTobin Updated 

We have had an excellent week with trades in GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD making excellent profits, up more than 20% this week which makes up for last weeks rather poor performance. Another opportunity is brewing that would allow us to sell the AUDUSD again. AUDUSD is in a clear downtrend confirmed earlier in the week when price moved below the red horizontal line...

SteveTobin

A significant rise for US oil today helped it to register a new high suggesting that blue wave 4 circled is in place. The new high confirms the bullish move higher and as a result, I am looking to buy the next dip, the most recent move counts quite well as a 5 wave move such a move is normally followed by another similar move after a pullback. The proposed...

SteveTobin Updated 

I am a trend trader which means the direction of the trend at a higher degree is THE most important technical factor when I take a trade. Over time this has turned me into a wave trader as that is the easiest and probably the best way to understand the structure and direction of the trend. A few years ago I developed this technical pattern caused the 'News Trap',...

SteveTobin

It is clear from all of the different classes that we are in the midst of a risk aversion move, Yen pairs Indices and the Dollar pairs are all moving lower which is the definition of a risk-off market. It is always important to stand back and look at the larger picture to make some decisions about how big this move may be, the CADJPY is a good leading instrument...

SteveTobin Updated 

I have bought NASDAQ at 7127. My trading plan is rule based and this trade meets all of the rules. NASDAQ has recently made a new high suggesting that the 2018 pullback is complete, the price has now pulled back in 3 clear waves giving the entry level of 7127, stochastics and RSI have reset to oversold so I am comfortable to take the position. The other indices...

SteveTobin Updated 

I have taken a short position in AUDUSD for the second time this week, the first trade hit target nicely and is linked below. The [air is in a confirmed downtrend and has just pulled back in three waves which allowed the projection of the turning point shown here as a green box. Stochastics have re-set to overbought, a necessary condition, RSI is overbought on...

SteveTobin Updated 

The FTSE made a new high which implies that the 2018 pullback in January is complete and the next leg higher has begun. Price is currently retracing the first wave higher and looks like it might be putting in a 3 swing movement for that pullback, I have added a green box to the chart showing the area I expect to be able to buy this asset. To take the trade I...