GBPJPY is currently retracing to the 61.8 fib from in its downtrend, i am also a fundamental trader so i will be looking at UK results this morning at 9:30 am to asses whether we will be entering the trade, we will also be looking at the hourly candle close at 10 am, we may miss a few pips doing this but it reduces risk substantially, i believe at the moment it is...
We have seen weakness on the dollar index over the last few days giving the euro strength, after looking at the dollar index i believe its starting to form a sideways channel, in the chart you can see the EURUSD is forming a rising wedge in a downtrend on the 4hr chart which is considered incredibly bearish, i believe we are going to see a strong sell off.
Recent rally due to the weakening of the dollar, dollar index now testing support so i expect to see a pull back from the NZD and continuation up or a fall to support levels at 0.7130, either way i will continue to monitor the dollar index on this trade before deciding whether to stick with it or execute the position.
The reason for this trade i beleive the current Rally in oil we are seeing today is due to API numbers telling us there is a drawdown in oil this week in the US, which is significant news as oil supply is at record high, this will cause the US markets to rally as they have a large amount of oil companies on the exchange, in turn that strenghtens the dollar against...
With strong results in the UK and the US the pound has continued to fall against the dollar as people are more concerned over the Brexit rather than Trump, I believe we are coming out of a downward trend and we will see the GBP break resistance and continue up to either the 0.5 fib or 61.8 fib from the trend at the beginning of the month. I believe 1.243 is a good...
US Crude WTI Trade, looking to go long from the recent uptrend, currently pulling back from a monster rally, I believe it will test 61.8 fib, once we have confirmation after crude API and EIA numbers this week, I will be looking to enter once results have been confirmed and consolidation is confirmed on the 0.5 or 0.618 fib.
GBPUSD Testing the 0.5 fib overbought on the RSI which it has been respecting at 70.0, Recent dollar weakness now gaining back strength so i think we will see a continuation of its downward trend. Entry 1.251 SL 1.2554 TP 1.243
Keeping in with the last 2 month trend line, Oil again appears to be over bought, i'm taking this as a low risk trade because i prefer to increase my holding on a long position rather than short as oil is likely to go up this year. my risk to reward is 3.41 and i have set the stop loss just above some previous spikes, i'm looking to achieve 200 pips from this trade.
With a show of Crude Oil Inventories adding 13.8 million barrels oil rallied due to the dollar weakening, after a big rally over the last few days the dollar started to strengthen again due to the bloomberg consumer confidence being strong so i see a short to the recent support and resistance line, expecting a pull back.
Economic uncertainty with Trump, US equity market at an all time high so room for downside increasing strength in the JPY, Currently in a bear trend and looking to hit key support and resistance area dating back to November after the US election once Trump was voted in and the US Dollar started to gain strength. 3% Stop Loss in place just above resistance bear trend line.