14:13 // As I wrote on Friday Aug 23 afternoon if Pn on that day does not close below 1.0564 we will see further side movements the next days. Exactly that is happening. Since Pn inclined to 1.11535 it generated an imbalance point with the energy center at 1.11776. Now that it finally returned to the point of discharge it generated an angle not to decline further...
6:13 // Yesterday morning I projected for the following two days that Pn will hit 1.10925, will brake 1.10664 and finally will move towards 1.10460. All this happened as to now and for today I expect an incline at least to 1.0762 - 1.078 as well as a further decline at least one point below 1.10664 (the timing can be versatile). There is a chance that after that a...
07:44// today-tomorrow it is likely that Pn breakes 1.10644 and moves towards 1.10460 - 1.10396. However there is a strong pivot at 1.10925 and this mark will be hit today I would say. BUT to balance avarages Pn or Pn+1 should close BELOW 1.10644 to set the fundament to incline to apx 1.1150. If it breakes 1.10396 it will likely be followed by a strong impulse...
10h26// Pn-1 missed 1.11163 by 2,5pips. As I wrote imbalances are pulling towards 1.10396. If Pn breaks 1.10644 today this scenario becomes more likely. However, in my opinion today will close above 1.10824 with a likelyhood of 1:1.6. My expectation is growing volatility and an incline later or towards the end of the day UTC.
After Pn-1 made a strong push I think it is likely that the incline will go on to 1.11163 or higher. However, there are still avarage imbalances in the weekly timeframe pulling Pn towards 1.10396. On the other hand, in the monthly cycle I see a tendency to gravitate to 1.1546 and 1.1560 - but when, I have no answer.
As projected on Aug 9 the EURUSD just tipped the 1.11171 and a little bit below. Next low will very likely be today 1.11007 and after that I expect a pullback and a possible new low around 1.10696. As mentioned on Aug 9 keep an eye on the CHF and CNH - the movements there can give a better birds eye view on the turbulent situation. After a second low I see...
... Caution is the mother of wisdom. And as Confucius said there are three ways to gain wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest. Let's focus on the first :) The 10y supercycle is a downtrend but if you look at 20y it's just a big swing. NOW: I bet on a 50/50 chance for...
There is no European city that offers the lowest cost of living and a modern lifestyle in a beautiful environment with historical monuments as uniquely as Budapest. A weak Forint supports tourism, although maybe the less sustainable cheap-tourism, and with an all-time EURHUF-high of 331,78 in summer 2018 it may have reached a point for a retrace. Although...
The last two days I came across some recommendations about going short on USDJPY - and it is still rising. True is, that in the daily chart it has typical correction charachteristics. An overnight analysis resulted in quite stable instantaneous velocity of the 1h-cycles for the last 5-9 days. Today morning 6:00 (UTC) I rated the probabilities with 39% Long, 41%...
If EURUSD swings to a lower price corridor it is likely to happen in the next 7-14 days. Important mark is around 1.09095. Beyond 1.1045 (especially hit before 2016-08-03) prepear for next wave peak soon followed by a slower decline. As long as price swings between 1.1045 and 1.098 I would go swimming instead. My personal target for 2016-08-31 is between 1.09 -...
