RogueWick

RogueWick

It seems to me that sentiment is pretty low right now. Expectations for fed bungling of inflation efforts, stocks bearish even after significant fall. World political / economic outlook pretty bleak. Supply chain issues as a fundamental suggesting a generalized slowdown. So a bear attitude is the most natural thing in the world. It "feels" like the market is going...

RogueWick

I generally just publish these as private so I have them handy to reflect on later. But I noticed I have not put anything up as public in a while. Maybe someone will find this worthwhile. BTC is currently resting on the bottom of the uptrend channel that has been in place from July 2021 till now, Dec 14, 2021. It is also resting on the 200 day SMA, having...

RogueWick Updated 

Nothing fancy. Just what I see as most likely right now. I'm looking for a small dip on low time frame chart now for the best long entry I can.

RogueWick

I am very confident this will be invalidated and will not play out. Or simply be rejected by momentum at some point. I presume soon. But to me it is a fascinating consideration of potentialities that are in the chart at any given moment. It's like opening the mind of a bear zealot and looking inside :) H&S are like support and resistance, they play out a lot of...

RogueWick Updated 

I was experimenting with some arcs and looking at the weekly RSI. It's far from any approved TA methods I am aware of. BTC seems like it is in a precarious position to me. But it has been a very strong trend. Really hard to say, other than I am feeling cautious. See what you think.

RogueWick

I noticed the similarity between the rally that is going on now and the rally in February of 2021, and made a chart to illustrate the thought. Certainly not "predicting" this. But the fact that it has happened before--and recently--provides some encouragement for bullish sentiment.

RogueWick

When price is surging, indicators that normally offer very useful signals, often just kind of "peg" and stay at maximum or minimum. My indicators right now, look to me like we're at the end of an upswing, but this look at Keltner channels on the daily chart seems to show a likelihood that this is not the end of this recovery surge. It may have barely begun. Food...

RogueWick

The large scale down trend seems to be in force still. Strong possibility for more drops, weak recoveries, and ranging. Of course, the price is the result of a battle. I see that we are still arguably respecting the lines for a reversal and (still weak / forming) uptrend after the "spring" at 28.8k. Personally, I much prefer a bull market and would love to see...

RogueWick

My bias has been bullish lately. I took some time to consider bearish scenarios and I have to say, it's not unreasonable or unsupported. However, I'll continue to hope this correction is just a mid-cycle adjustment that is the result of factors unique to this time period.

RogueWick

I'm just a student of the crypto market. So I learn by studying, but also sometimes by just looking at the charts and trying to make sense of them in different ways. This is an example. It looks to me like there has been a consistent pattern of shallower and shallower downtrend angles over time in the BTC daily chart. And it looks like there is an overall trend...

RogueWick

This analysis indicates to me that ADA has been the best choice (among four of my favorites) for buying during the BTC dips - for the purpose of short term gains. ADA tends to over-recover, at least briefly, and has gotten very tightly linked to BTC price lately. For those interested, the technique for watching price as percent of ATH: multiply price by the...

RogueWick

I was looking at some RSI history for Bitcoin and thought I would share this. Not sure how powerful the support is here, but it looks bullish to me. Not financial advice of course.

RogueWick Updated 

Apart from the indicators, and from formal TA, it seems like there is a story playing out in this correction. These are the steps as I identify them, along with my guess as to what is to come.

RogueWick

Looking at the prognostications for imminent dire times in the stock market, and the matching ones / FUD for BTC, I was wondering how much linkage there is in the historical data. And I wondered if maybe Crypto might be a "canary in the coal mine" for other financial markets, sensitive to the same factors but reacting earlier for whatever reason. I do not find...

RogueWick

I am fascinated by these. Thought I'd share a few thoughts on the most recent one. The fibs are intriguing, and especially how the price seems to remain sensitive to the recent levels for quite a while. Loving the new Tradingview TA Panel indicator.

RogueWick

This is a superficial analysis, because anything can happen now. If BTC goes to 7k, people will buy it again. If DOGE goes back to .01c, will people bring it to new all time highs?

RogueWick

Analyzing best candidates for scalp coin to pair with BTC price moves. A little surprised to see SOL in there.