Mats000

Mats000 Updated 

The blue rectangles are Fibonacci retracements from two previous lows (Jul 2016, Sep 2017) and the Oct 2018 high. The yield is well-behaved and two Fibonacci levels often cluster around similar levels. The yield went down to 2.6 but has recently increased to 2.7, I do believe that the yield will continue to go down. The 2.1 level should be a target for the next...

Mats000 Updated 

My earlier forecast of a dip has not yet happened. The market did not respond to the turning of the moon cycle. This is strange. A fall should occur later this week.The fall does not have to be large but should at least be 50 points. The market is psychologically very strong and some trigger in the opposite direction is needed - Chinese retail and GDP data later...

Mats000 Updated 

Fibonacci can be very powerful in the oil market. It provides perspective on the type of move that is possible The increase from January 2016 to October 2018 was retraced a perfect 62% on Dec 26. Oil is currently booming again after the good job report last Friday (increased demand), the start of US-China negotiation (expected but still) and Saudi Arabia's...

Mats000 Updated 

The index should start declining in the next few days. Fibonacci from Sep 21 and Nov 30 points to 2573 or 2626-2644 as the the most likely turning points. The market has been buoyant on the back of rising treasury yield. This cannot continue. We are likely to see a move higher to the higher Fibonacci level and then a quick reversal. At that time the market will be...

Mats000 Updated 

Over natten sa varierar futures. En variant ar att kopa/salja tio timmar efter borsens stangning och sedan salja/kopa nar index vis borsens stangning nas. Man kan variera sig mer. Vi far val se om det fungerar idag

Mats000 Updated 

The job-market report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was very strong. 312K new jobs created instead of a forecasted 177K, Blacks entering the job market as unemployed. This is good because they are no longer outside the job market. Next step is that they will be employed. There were other positive points as well, but you get the point. S&P 500...

Mats000 Updated 

Here is my forecast based on Fibonacci, moon cycles, and Elliott. My thinking should be fairly obvious for anyone who understands the methods. If you have a question please let me know I have not taken fundamentals actively into account, but it is interesting to ponder the following: (1) The trade sanctions can come into effect March 1. (2) FOMC take place Jan...

Mats000 Updated 

This is based on Fibonnaci, moon cycles and 10 year treasury yields. This entry will not explain much. See early entries for explanation. The importance is the trend. The levels are approximate. The turning points should be somewhat more accurate. The Elliott labelling is a bit sloppy and should only be treated as an indication that the ride is not smooth.

Mats000

This is an attempt to forecast the yield on treasury notes based on technical analysis. Clearly this is an incomplete analysis as fundamentals will also impact heavily. So let us consider the following a base case. First, there are trends in the yield. I would not call it cycles because they have different duration. Those thends tend to last a longer time, more...

Mats000 Updated 

The treasury yield (orange) is down a lot during the last month. There might be a bounce up, but the trend should continue to be down (inertia). The SPX cycle is still down so we can expect a few more days of selling pressure before the yield (and SPX) moves up (reference to cycles below). The 10-2 yield curve is set to invert early next year (simple trend...

Mats000 Updated 

A large move is possible in EURUSD, but not yet confirmed. A simple projection (length of head to neckline) would put EURUSD close to parity. This would be extreme, but not unprecedented. It would be very negative for the SP500 as the companies' profit in USD would shrink. Would probably be caused by some turmoil in Europe (e.g. Italy's debt, France's...

Mats000 Updated 

Moon cycles have been shown in academic research to be predictive. Recent price history of S&P 500 shows clear moon cycles with a bottom around the full moon. The moon cycle is also related to the intermediate cycle in Welles Wilder's delta methodology. Elliott Wave theory would predict we are in correction wave. After eight years of a higher index the...

Mats000

There will be another downturn in the SPX. Since the current bull market has lasted since 2008, the fall will be severe. Assuming the the peak occured in September 2018, the Fibonacci 38% target level is around 2080. If the final peak is yet to come, the target level will be higher, but still equivalent to a 38% decline from the new peak. It is interesting to note...

Mats000 Updated 

Moon cycles have been shown in academic research to be predictive. Recent price history of S&P 500 shows clear moon cycles with a bottom around the full moon. The moon cycle is also related to the intermediate cycle in Welles Wilder's delta methodology. Elliott Wave theory would predict we are in correction wave. After eight years of a higher index the...

Mats000 Updated 

Perfect example of Fiboacci retracements

Mats000

I am opening this post for a discussion. The chart shows the correlation between interest rates and the stockmarket. Most of the time the relationship is positive. Higher interest rates lead to higher stock prices. This is kind of counter-intuitive but strongly the case. The chart shows the 1 hour chart, but the relationship can be even stronger on shorter time...

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