Legionnaire

Legionnaire

US stock markets have proved their resilience over the years as they have climbed a "wall of worry" and my my my, it has been some wall they have been scaling. It would be foolish to call the top in any market that has displayed such steepness in its ascend but it is evident from the chart that we have hit some long term resistance levels. - Triple Bottom...

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DXY has been consolidating and leaving little clues as to which direction it is likely to follow. The Elliot Wave counts on the chart show 3 potential counts all of which are viable counts. Triangulating price action by any asset class is always tricky and from an Elliot Wave perspective it exposes the subjective nature of this discipline. Below 96.17 sees the...

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- The pair failed to break and validate the ascending triangle - Bearish - Sold off hard and looks to being rejected at the 61.8% Fib - Bear Flag formation with trade below 1.0730 VERY Bearish - RSI is breaking its trend and front running price but price breakdown required! ONLY ABOVE 1.1050 FLIPS THIS BEARISH CURRENT.

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Still respecting LT support levels and is on course to close the month in a bullish engulfing candle. Lower term charts has sen Crude break out of its range. As long it stays above $54 then there is scope for more upside, potential towards $75 in the medium term.

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The Dax steep incline is looking to be losing some steam and the Elliott Wave structure suggests that we may have a pullback consolidation before printing a new high. ECB press conference today could trigger some profit taking in Germany's premier Index. A new whipsaw high may be probable as well, but likely to be sold into. Favoring the pullback short term.

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EURJPY Bears tried desperately to resolve the 1+ month range to the downside but look to be failing in their efforts. Temporary break below the 126.87 mid March low looks to be a whipsaw/fakeout BUT Draghi is stepping up to the plate today and can scupper the best laid technical plans. Very short term an inverse H & S pattern has formed with the neckline cited at...

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The Equity rally in the US is looking tired and needs some accelerate. The Banking Index can provide this, if it can manage to breakout of its 1+ Yr range. Closely watching this one.

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Annotations on the Chart

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Failure of the Kiwi to retake above the 0.7700 level keeps the Bearish tone alive and well. A break this week below the T-Line from the 0.7191 low is likely going to see the pair retest the bottom of its range at 0.7191. Only above 0.7700 puts the Bulls in the driving seat.

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Chart says it all really.

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AUDJPY - Been watching this for a while and I am amazed by how much the broken channel support line has resisted price thus far. Pair is ranging between 94.63-89.37 (Flag pattern) and requires a catalyst for the next directional move but currently the pendulum looks to be swung in the favor of the Bears. Only a break above 94.63 could see the pendulum swing in...

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Friday saw the pair challenge T-Line Resistance and 78.6% Fib of smaller degree swing and got HEAVILY rejected thus forming a Key outside bar reversal on the daily chart. This is a ominous bearish sign. Aggressive traders have every justification to initiate short positions with a great R/R ratio. More conservative traders can wait for a successful break below...

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EURUSD Monthly Chart - Apologies if the chart looks a bit busy but here are the main points. Fib Time Projection: The 2000 (Point X) - late 2004 (Point Y) uptrend lasted for 50 months. A correction ensued and the low was formed in late 2005 (Point Z). If we take the 50 month uptrend and Fib project it from Point Z then we can see that it has has the uncanny...

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Looking at the Monthly chart of the CAC40 you can clearly see its heading into a Wall of Resistance. Fibonacci cluster, LT T-Line Resistance, Wedge Resistance and Price resistance. This is the real test for the CAC40 bulls. Clearly the bulls have the QE wind in their sails but it is PARAMOUNT that they confidently clear the Brick Wall. Tentative Elliott Wave Count...

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See annotations on the chart.

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USDRUB hit the lower end of its 3 month range and reversed producing a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Slight Bullish Divergence on the short term momentum indicator at the oversold zones suggests a pause and possibly a rebound which could see some profit taking in Equities (RTS Index). If a bounce materializes then the USDRUB will target 60.

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GBPJPY got rejected at its 61.8% Fib of the 189.71-17549 decline and is looking primed to extend its declines towards the 170.82/168.02 target zone. All that stands in the way of the bears is the 175.49 February low. A confident break of this level will increase the probabilities towards it target zone. Intraday 176.79 is resistance. Bears have the upper hand as...

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The Eurostoxx 50 Index has achieved its Inverse H & S target so it is at an inflection point. Lets wait and see how price reacts here as we may see some profit taking.