KevinOrchard

KevinOrchard

With the breakdown in ethanol needs, general and feed lot demand, corn has suffered immensely. Recent favorable weather has also pushed the shine off the this juicy grain. From a fundamental point of view demand and exports looking to offer more support into later part of year, TA was looking good until recent sell off. The rally on 29th June shows how quickly the...

KevinOrchard

Silver obviously in bull trend since June. Looking back to start of June nice gains, however watch for the pull back. On 4Hr easy trades can be made shorting high RSI on 4HRs but don't get caught in a larger bull trend as Gold pushes higher, and takes silver for the ride. For now careful additional to longs, and/or easy sniping of high RSI rallies.

KevinOrchard Updated 

After that last dump the other week, NATGAS is showing signs of increased bullishness, with drops bought back up quickly, but the future issues of storage keeping a lid on rallies. Looking ahead, November contracts are still comfortably above $2 (~$2.30) though the issues to watch is the shoulder season after summer. For the moment, staying long, however as we...

KevinOrchard

Cases could be made for both bull and bear on the Daily charts. With various support and resistant points for extrapolation. However the correlation between the Equity markets is still quite in tact, so assuming a further rally on the markets, will likely feed to the BTC markets. Will be interesting if another drop down on Equities effects BTC. For now, to break...

KevinOrchard

NATGAS just keeps getting hit with more bearish news - storage and weather, with nothing supporting a bullish rally. That said, possible large upside once news of extended hot temps hit, and the concern over storage filling is passed. Storage filling up aside, downside may be limited just by the actual physical price going into a potentially very hot summer.

KevinOrchard

Keep thinking this is going to dump (I am long). Though hasn't broken $10K resistance but also hasn't massively dumped. So at some point impatience is going to win and pop over $10K swift upto $11 or more, or taking the elevator down to $8K and possibly below. 4HR RSI looking towards overboard, 50 day MA and PVT looking supportive as well as Fib levels. At some...

KevinOrchard

Palladium has had a massive drive up in price. Previously below platinum, it's come into it's own. The market is tightly controlled by a few major players, and possible supply interruptions helping fan the bull flame. $2000 Rejection most likely profit taking, and an outlook over $2K imminent. I am waiting to take a short position though, as a rally like this has...

KevinOrchard

Have been out of BTC for a bit, luckily before the last dip as was long. Latest setup has me interested again in a quick trade over the $8K mark. Previous support of approx $7800USD is now resistance and lines up with Fib. If can get over this a nice trade up to $8200 relatively low risk. On the 4HR can see some price momentum building but if it drops, a quick...

KevinOrchard

Technically, ascending triangle and trend lines show Gold is still looking on an up trend with bullish indicators. However, fundamentals of Fed Cut could lead to a large reversal, breaking bottom trend line and sinking below $1400. The RSI isn't showing overly overbought or undersold, so there may be some technical support/resistance from a break out either way....

KevinOrchard

I have been hovering over the buy button on corn past week. Wasn't convinced enough to enter, and now heading back to Fib retracement towards $4. The closer to this the stronger chance of a rally - from either fundamentals coning out due to crop damage and lower yields, and also some technical short closing since last rally. Keeping in mind the August report,...

KevinOrchard

I feel corn is an easy trade at moment. If we look at 4.29 as a kind of average way point at the moment. If it shoots above that with more news of more crop issues in US, look for an overbought RSI to short or jump on the long train if feel confident. There are uncertainties of the amount of acreage planted, and extended heat causing further crop damage, but...

KevinOrchard

Overall it's easy to see from fundamentals and technixals, that the bears are pushing this hard. I think an aim for them is at $2 which may see after summer season, but if production keeps up, and there's no on going heat waves, is a possibility. At the moment NatGas needs simultaneous bullish news - possibly this Thursday EIA report below 5 year avg + high...

KevinOrchard

Gold is playing to recent Fib levels on the 4HR. Waiting for Fed cut news to see where it goes. Personally feel the fed cut is priced in, a 25 point cut maybe pop and drop below current levels, but 1400 psychological support - and 50 would be a pop and hold at higher level IMO. At the moment if RSI gets above 70 looking at short, but any long am happy to sit out...

KevinOrchard

Fundamental and analytical all point to continued gains. Short sellers savaged some stocks making them perhaps undervalued - though keeping an eye on P/E ratios That said overall optimism on the market and more US states looking at further positive legislation

KevinOrchard

BTC still suffering from negative sentiment. Seems every rally, profit takers happy to dump out. Sustained rally at moment seems hard. Number of shorts may protect further drops.

KevinOrchard

I had a nice long on and closed, but now back to bear with these candle long reds, plus US trade issues, flight of capital, and risk on market for general FUD trading

KevinOrchard

If BTC can reach over $9.5K and build support holding above $10K looking good. On downside drop below $8.5K and Fib of $8.4K shows downside possible back to $7.5K range. On short term long and short both look neutral but trend lines show break to $10K on momentum slightly more possible if can keep up support

KevinOrchard

Looking like a fast recovery with support off top line of bottom 1Hr fib level.