As I have spoken about previously the single most important technical chart for the stock markets right now is GOOGL. The 9 year uptrend from 2009 lows is being tested repeatedly. A definitive close below 1000 and this is headed 10% LOWER imo.
Oversold RSI on 4h plus clean looking EW count suggests we may have finished a small degree iii wave and now due for a small bounce in iv to around 1.21 where potential for short set up (stop 1.2215) for a wave v lower into 1.1850 zone in coming days.
If this huge Head and Shoulders pattern is playing out then we are now completing the right hand shoulder around 12750-12800 zone. Downside is huge (10,000) so use a stop around 13000 or else keep an eye on SPX if it breaches above 2720.
It still looks to me like we have more room on the upside for US 10y yields (bond prices lower) short term. FED tonight probably a wash but a hike in June is locked in currently so expect yields to rise over coming days/weeks until something changes.
Barometer for market direction is still GOOGL imo.
9 year uptrend from 2009 lows comes in around 1010-1020 depending on how you draw it and timeframes etc.
A decisive close below 1000 has MAJOR implications for the whole market imo.
One of my favourite short trade ideas currently. Am short GBP/JPY 152.40 with a stop at 154.00 and profit target sub 145.00.
Weakening GBP fundamentals and Brexit worries to increasingly weigh. USD strength to hit GBP hardest in coming weeks on widening rate forward path. Dont believe JPY will weaken so much versus USD if there is also a risk off environment as rates rise.
Wave analysis suggests may be bottoming around 119 in the futures having nearly met 2.618 extension target. Probably going to bounce around between 119-119.5 in the coming few sessions before another attempt lower in early May where we could see a more significant low in the 117.5-118.5 zone for a med term BUY opportunity.
Took profit on short term trade, short at 1.24, too profit 1.23.
Now long at 1.2260 on potentially completed e wave of larger 4th wave triangle. Stop 1.2210. Looking for 1.2600 in coming days/weeks before a bigger EUR set back and USD upmove over several months.
May have just finished wave d (up) within larger wave 4 triangle. Expect three legged setback in coming days to 1.2260-1.2300 zone to complete final wave of the triangle (e) before an impulsive wave 5 higher to test 1.2600+. After that expecting a much larger setback in the EUR (USD strength for weeks/months)