Flash430

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Joined Flash430
Markets Allocation
49 % stocks 14 % forex 7 % indices 31 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 6% | 4 US10Y 6% | 4 GOOGL 6% | 4 INTC 5% | 3
Flash430 Flash430 USO, D, Short ,
USO: USO oil fund short
4 0 0
USO, D Short
USO oil fund short

Break and backtest from underside of long term uptrend suggests possible fall away lower now in a wave iii/c for at least 10% lower

Flash430 Flash430 XLE, D, Short ,
XLE: XLE leading to the downside with XLF
5 0 0
XLE, D Short
XLE leading to the downside with XLF

Possible H+S top formation in XLE Could lead market to the downside along with XLF which is also about to break a 2+ year uptrend

Flash430 Flash430 US10Y, D, Short ,
US10Y: US10 yr yields still heading lower towards 2.60s
20 0 1
US10Y, D Short
US10 yr yields still heading lower towards 2.60s

secondary top in place on FOMC now headed down in wave 3 or c towards (beyond?) 2.60s%

Flash430 Flash430 XLF, D, Short ,
XLF: XLF on the brink again
9 0 0
XLF, D Short
XLF on the brink again

XF financials/banks ETf on the brink again as it strains to maintain the 2 year+ uptrend from early 2016. Close below 27 area could lead to a swift 8%-10% more downside. Leading the market lower post FOMC as 10s-2s yield curve flattens further

Flash430 Flash430 IT10Y, 1D, Long ,
IT10Y: ITA 10 yr yield still headed higher
4 0 0
IT10Y, 1D Long
ITA 10 yr yield still headed higher

Follow up to posts from around a month/6 weeks ago....Italian 10yr yields headed higher to at least 3.80% imo. Currently in a wave iv triangle (just finished c, need to do d then e) before a thrust higher in yield towards target in coming few weeks/months

Flash430 Flash430 SPX, 1D, Short ,
SPX: SPX short
34 0 0
SPX, 1D Short
SPX short

Looking for a minimum 2450 on downside in coming weeks (maybe by end June!) in a c wave although if it turns out to be a third wave lower then it is going much much lower!

Flash430 Flash430 IWM, 1D, Short ,
IWM: IWM Major Top in place (or very shortly)
13 0 0
IWM, 1D Short
IWM Major Top in place (or very shortly)

High beta stocks (small cap and tech etc) are the last bastions of FOMO in this central bank QE and zirp/nirp fuelled blow off bubble in stock markets. Once high beta rolls over the whole market could fall very precipitously (>20%). Looking at a turn/top in IWM imminently.

Flash430 Flash430 US30USD, 1D, Short ,
US30USD: DOW secondary top
17 0 0
US30USD, 1D Short
DOW secondary top

Looks like DOW may have formed a secondary interim top around 25400 (truncated C wave of wave 2 or B). Short from January. Considering adding to short here at 25300 with a stop at 25500 with initial target circa 23300. Return/Risk ratio circa 10:1

Flash430 Flash430 IXIC, 240, Short ,
IXIC: IXIC Nasdaq Comp potential MAJOR TOP....
11 0 0
IXIC, 240 Short
IXIC Nasdaq Comp potential MAJOR TOP....

If this EW count on Nasdaq Comp #IXIC is correct then we are very close to (within 1%) of a MAJOR MAJOR TOP..... wave v of v) of 5 of 5) and there is a LONG LONG way to go on the downside.....

Flash430 Flash430 INTC, 1D, Short ,
INTC: INTC Intel bearish indicator for rest of market?
32 0 0
INTC, 1D Short
INTC Intel bearish indicator for rest of market?

The rising wedge pattern in Intel INTC looks to be breaking - if this is the case it could be a leading indicator for the rest of the market (potential 20%+ downside from here)

Flash430 Flash430 US10Y, 1D, Short ,
US10Y: US 10yr yield heading to 2.64 area
24 0 2
US10Y, 1D Short
US 10yr yield heading to 2.64 area

Looks like we finished wave 2/B higher and now set for a C/3rd leg lower to low 2.60s %

Flash430 Flash430 QQQ, 1D, Short ,
QQQ: QQQ top?
11 0 0
QQQ, 1D Short
QQQ top?

With about 90mins left in the session, QQQ is shaping up for a key day bearish reversal after an ATH print and what looks like a complete EW 5 wave count plus diverging RSI. Needless to say the potential downside could be huge.....

Flash430 Flash430 XLK, 1D, Short ,
XLK: Top in XLK ?
3 0 0
XLK, 1D Short
Top in XLK ?

Could we have a 5th wave top in place in XLK yesterday/today? If so there is a long way to go lower.....

Flash430 Flash430 DEU30, 1D, Short ,
DEU30: DAX
13 0 0
DEU30, 1D Short
DAX

Could be turning lower again in a wave iii to 12250 zone at a minimum potentially sub 12000

Flash430 Flash430 AMZN, 1M,
AMZN: $AMZN
24 0 0
AMZN, 1M
$AMZN

There is a lot of chatter about the first company to potentially reach a $1trn valuation. Apple possibly. Amazon maybe. Which reminded me about a prescient lesson for AMAZON permabulls. Yes, if you had bought twenty years ago you would have made 1000x your money by now. BUT......if you had bought in 1999 you would have had to suffer through a two year sell off ...

Flash430 Flash430 IXIC, D, Short ,
IXIC: IXIC short Nasdaq Comp idea
19 0 1
IXIC, D Short
IXIC short Nasdaq Comp idea

IXIC has made a new ATH by a point or two today but now pulling back. If we stall here then this could result in a huge double top pattern. Significance would be increased on a daily close below neckline with ultimate target for the pattern around 6000 (-20% from current levels)

Flash430 Flash430 US10Y, D, Short ,
US10Y: Long US 10 yr Notes (short US 10yr yield)
4 0 0
US10Y, D Short
Long US 10 yr Notes (short US 10yr yield)

Just updated trading scenario from a month ago (yields at 3% looking for top 3.10-3.20% zone, actual high 3.13%). Recent fall in yields potentially only the first leg lower in a larger drop. Possible H+S top pattern in play on break and close below 2.75% could easily see sub 2.50% and perhaps 2.35% area despite FED next week (expecting +25bps) which should lead to ...

Flash430 Flash430 SPX, 240, Short ,
SPX: Stock indices short DOW and SPX
37 0 0
SPX, 240 Short
Stock indices short DOW and SPX

Already short DOW since January. SPX has been dragged higher kicking and screaming by the NDX/FANG but even SPX now looks like it may be ready to roll over at 2750. Short with stop above 2810 target SUB 2500 coming weeks....

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