Clean looking structure on USD/NOK suggests we are early stages of wave 5 higher to around 10.0 over coming 12-18 months where measured targets and big round number comes in to play. This fits with fundamental view of Oil returning to $25 over similar time frame.
After that we could have the much longer term time frame (5-10 years) of USD collapse.
Copper has a nice clean EW structure and when it finishes this fourth wave triangle pattern should drop to 2.47 area next couple of months in a final wave five (of 1 or A lower).
2.47 has a nice confluence of prior support and 61% retrace level.
If this chart pattern plays out we are looking at a huge downside acceleration.
EW count is on the precipice of a third of a third of a third wave lower.
Also classic H+S top with neckline break needed for confirmation (target 83 area).
Short 110.50, stop 115.50, target sub 85 level coming weeks/months. 5/1 return/risk.
Given the sell off in recent weeks it looks like we are well into a bigger picture wave D of triangle B).
Current thoughts on a roadmap....
D looks too shallow at the moment so expect a low in the 1180-1220 area in coming weeks as USD strengthens a bit more and EURUSD to maybe 1.13 ish.
Then a rebound from around 1200 back to around 1300 over Q3 (a few months...
Head and Shoulders top playing out nicely. Currently in wave iv triangle of larger wave 3 (or C) down to 108-111 area where there is a confluence of 61% retrace of the 2011 upswing plus H+S top target and also 3/c = 1.618* a(1)
Already short but you can add to shorts here at 127.25 with a stop 2 points higher and looking for perhaps 17 points on the downside in...
If this topping pattern in Boeing plays out (potential double top) and we are now in wave c/3 to the downside then this could signal the trade war is going to get very ugly.....potential target in the 250-260$ zone....
Triangle of minor fourth wave still in play (just completed c possibly). Higher in d then pullback in e to finish wave iv before thrust higher to 3.80% in coming weeks/months to finish wave 3/C before wider consolidation at higher yield levels
XF financials/banks ETf on the brink again as it strains to maintain the 2 year+ uptrend from early 2016. Close below 27 area could lead to a swift 8%-10% more downside.
Leading the market lower post FOMC as 10s-2s yield curve flattens further
Follow up to posts from around a month/6 weeks ago....Italian 10yr yields headed higher to at least 3.80% imo.
Currently in a wave iv triangle (just finished c, need to do d then e) before a thrust higher in yield towards target in coming few weeks/months
High beta stocks (small cap and tech etc) are the last bastions of FOMO in this central bank QE and zirp/nirp fuelled blow off bubble in stock markets. Once high beta rolls over the whole market could fall very precipitously (>20%). Looking at a turn/top in IWM imminently.
Looks like DOW may have formed a secondary interim top around 25400 (truncated C wave of wave 2 or B).
Short from January. Considering adding to short here at 25300 with a stop at 25500 with initial target circa 23300.
Return/Risk ratio circa 10:1