Flash430

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About me "Normal" semi-retired (too much fun) prop trader/HF mngr 30yrs+ investment/trading experience across all asset classes, primarily global macro focus but have also managed L/S and RV strategies
Joined United Kingdom Flash430
Markets Allocation
48 % stocks 14 % forex 6 % indices 32 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 6% | 4 US10Y 6% | 4 GOOGL 6% | 4 IT10Y 4% | 3
Flash430 Flash430 IBB, 1D, Short ,
12 0 0
IBB, 1D Short
IBB short biotech going to low 80s

If this chart pattern plays out we are looking at a huge downside acceleration. EW count is on the precipice of a third of a third of a third wave lower. Also classic H+S top with neckline break needed for confirmation (target 83 area). Short 110.50, stop 115.50, target sub 85 level coming weeks/months. 5/1 return/risk.

Flash430 Flash430 XLK, 60, Short ,
5 0 0
XLK, 60 Short
XLK - H+S TOP in time for wave 3 lower

If the picture perfect H+S Top pattern is correct then we are about to head down in wave 3 to break neckline and head towards 65.30 area. Short, stop above right shoulder, t/p 65.30

Flash430 Flash430 XAUUSD, 1W, Short ,
79 1 0
XAUUSD, 1W Short
XAUUSD - Gold roadmap

Given the sell off in recent weeks it looks like we are well into a bigger picture wave D of triangle B). Current thoughts on a roadmap.... D looks too shallow at the moment so expect a low in the 1180-1220 area in coming weeks as USD strengthens a bit more and EURUSD to maybe 1.13 ish. Then a rebound from around 1200 back to around 1300 over Q3 (a few months ...

14 0 0
USDCNH, 1D
Omen - USD/China

Ahead of the trade tariffs kicking in the USD/CNH exchange rate trades 666 6.6666 to be precise OMEN

Flash430 Flash430 II1!, 1W, Short ,
12 0 1
II1!, 1W Short
Italian BTPs get ready for next leg lower

Head and Shoulders top playing out nicely. Currently in wave iv triangle of larger wave 3 (or C) down to 108-111 area where there is a confluence of 61% retrace of the 2011 upswing plus H+S top target and also 3/c = 1.618* a(1) Already short but you can add to shorts here at 127.25 with a stop 2 points higher and looking for perhaps 17 points on the downside in ...

Flash430 Flash430 BA, D, Short ,
21 0 0
BA, D Short
BOEING short

If this topping pattern in Boeing plays out (potential double top) and we are now in wave c/3 to the downside then this could signal the trade war is going to get very ugly.....potential target in the 250-260$ zone....

Flash430 Flash430 IT10Y, 1D, Long ,
51 0 2
IT10Y, 1D Long
ITA10 yr yields still heading higher

Triangle of minor fourth wave still in play (just completed c possibly). Higher in d then pullback in e to finish wave iv before thrust higher to 3.80% in coming weeks/months to finish wave 3/C before wider consolidation at higher yield levels

Flash430 Flash430 USO, D, Short ,
9 0 0
USO, D Short
USO oil fund short

Break and backtest from underside of long term uptrend suggests possible fall away lower now in a wave iii/c for at least 10% lower

Flash430 Flash430 XLE, D, Short ,
9 0 0
XLE, D Short
XLE leading to the downside with XLF

Possible H+S top formation in XLE Could lead market to the downside along with XLF which is also about to break a 2+ year uptrend

Flash430 Flash430 US10Y, D, Short ,
33 0 1
US10Y, D Short
US10 yr yields still heading lower towards 2.60s

secondary top in place on FOMC now headed down in wave 3 or c towards (beyond?) 2.60s%

Flash430 Flash430 XLF, D, Short ,
14 0 0
XLF, D Short
XLF on the brink again

XF financials/banks ETf on the brink again as it strains to maintain the 2 year+ uptrend from early 2016. Close below 27 area could lead to a swift 8%-10% more downside. Leading the market lower post FOMC as 10s-2s yield curve flattens further

Flash430 Flash430 IT10Y, 1D, Long ,
9 0 0
IT10Y, 1D Long
ITA 10 yr yield still headed higher

Follow up to posts from around a month/6 weeks ago....Italian 10yr yields headed higher to at least 3.80% imo. Currently in a wave iv triangle (just finished c, need to do d then e) before a thrust higher in yield towards target in coming few weeks/months

Flash430 Flash430 SPX, 1D, Short ,
108 0 0
SPX, 1D Short
SPX short

Looking for a minimum 2450 on downside in coming weeks (maybe by end June!) in a c wave although if it turns out to be a third wave lower then it is going much much lower!

Flash430 Flash430 IWM, 1D, Short ,
19 0 0
IWM, 1D Short
IWM Major Top in place (or very shortly)

High beta stocks (small cap and tech etc) are the last bastions of FOMO in this central bank QE and zirp/nirp fuelled blow off bubble in stock markets. Once high beta rolls over the whole market could fall very precipitously (>20%). Looking at a turn/top in IWM imminently.

Flash430 Flash430 US30USD, 1D, Short ,
30 0 0
US30USD, 1D Short
DOW secondary top

Looks like DOW may have formed a secondary interim top around 25400 (truncated C wave of wave 2 or B). Short from January. Considering adding to short here at 25300 with a stop at 25500 with initial target circa 23300. Return/Risk ratio circa 10:1

Flash430 Flash430 IXIC, 240, Short ,
25 0 0
IXIC, 240 Short
IXIC Nasdaq Comp potential MAJOR TOP....

If this EW count on Nasdaq Comp #IXIC is correct then we are very close to (within 1%) of a MAJOR MAJOR TOP..... wave v of v) of 5 of 5) and there is a LONG LONG way to go on the downside.....

Flash430 Flash430 INTC, 1D, Short ,
51 0 0
INTC, 1D Short
INTC Intel bearish indicator for rest of market?

The rising wedge pattern in Intel INTC looks to be breaking - if this is the case it could be a leading indicator for the rest of the market (potential 20%+ downside from here)

Flash430 Flash430 US10Y, 1D, Short ,
27 0 2
US10Y, 1D Short
US 10yr yield heading to 2.64 area

Looks like we finished wave 2/B higher and now set for a C/3rd leg lower to low 2.60s %

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