Dluginacci

Dluginacci

In my eyes there is some Bull party about to come and the EURCAD pair is just refreshing itself. So, I am not only throwing out theories but also try to justify it in the easiest, technical form possible. Now I do take fundamental events into consideration but only as such as they give an impuls but not set the agenda. If you are a fundamental trader and don't...

Dluginacci

The AUD/USD has started to move back up towards a number of 'Key Resistance Points' after going into decline by as much as 474 pips at the beginning of this year's trading. The trendline next on the upswing is shown (on the chart) by utilising a number of swing highs. The ultimate SH is the one depicted in February 2016 at 0.7242. Any breakaway that begins higher...

Dluginacci

The USD/CHF recovered nicely after the catastropic crash in the beginning of 2015 and set the it back to start. Looking at the technical side of things it appears that the pair is not finished yet but ready for more. On a daily timeframe the 1.0300 is pretty salient! Taken all the technical factors in consideration I am pretty happy to have opened a long...

Dluginacci

The good mood from the end of last year faded away and left us, once again, with a strong resistance at 1.1000. And from here the misery starts. It really doesn't look good for the Euro against the USD as the odds are long that the EUR finds its way out the undertow of the negative trend anytime soon. I use it as an opportunity to look for short entries and with...

Dluginacci

The german stock index DAX30 is running out of steam after a 600 point climb in October. Not surprisingly it needs a break, which makes a pullback scenario likely. I don't believe there is enough juice left in the market in order to let the DAX30 break the current horizontal resistance as well as the upper border of the downtrend channel. A short pullback...

Dluginacci

Dear traders, in my last analysis I indicated that the bears (should) get ready - slowly but steady. And here they come, roaring and shouting, showing off how fast they can pull the rug out from under the bulls feet. So where are we at? Is It A Trap? Based on my analysis and expectation: No! It fits into the big picture and goes conform with my DAX30 analysis...

Dluginacci

Dear traders, the majority of the news I can find about the (German) stock market/economy are bad. France overtook the German economy was only one of many headlines... Hold on a minute. Really? I think we get fooled to be honest. Why? Well, the first rule you learn as a (investment) banker is bad news = good news and vice versa. Very good example: If the...

Dluginacci

Dear traders, I will keep this analysis short, crisp and meaningful. As the title already says, everything comes to and end - and so does an Elliot Wave cycle. Cattle Drive Based on my EW analysis the AUD/USD is finished on the downside for now and will start a bullish cycle. So if you are short and waiting for it to turn round you may have not noticed that...

Dluginacci

Dear Traders, it's getting really interesting now. The DAX30 processed all targets within the correction as expected and even made it to the max. extend, which I mentioned in one of my earlier analysis when the correction started. So no surprise here. What was a bit surprising though was that the market participants didn't take the chance to buy full whack, yet....

Dluginacci

Dear traders, two weeks and about $3.00 per barrel later I pop round with an update regarding my running long position(s). All I can basically say is "It runs without a hitch'! Keep going. Still At The Beginning The overlaying trend is still strong bearish and that won't change anytime soon, however, the move I am trading at the moment is a huge correction...

Dluginacci

It has been nearly a month since my last analysis about the EUR/USD. Back then I saw the final wave (blue) 5 in full swing, having a pyramid of three short positions open as the resistance of 1.10 was a reliable stronghold. However, the only serious support that could have spoilt the party, before heading directly to 1.02/1.00, was the support at 1.05 which,...

Dluginacci

Dear Traders, there has been happening a lot since my last DAX30 analysis eleven days ago. I have closed my short positions with some profits and kept quite until the beginning of this week, waiting to bring my long trades into the race. If you remember, I revised my initial expectation from 'call' to 'put' as I expected the correction not be finished - or...

Dluginacci

Dear traders, the most of us were hoping the oil price would drop forever, well at least those of us who drive a car or have an oil based central heating. But as the commodity market is no exception and no one-way system it had to stop at one point. So it did. The oil price is rising again and the question now is: Was that it? No more cheap fuel at the gas...

Dluginacci

Dear traders, if you follow my analyses and my social media channels regularly you know that I was talking about two scenarios regarding the DAX30 since the (blue) four was seemed to be completed: 1) We stick to the plan and finish the job without any detour. At this stage I was talking about 12,300 as a milestone - which I finally got. I closed all my long...

Dluginacci

Two weeks ago I have posted my last analysis about the DAX30, expecting the (red) 2 to be completed. If you remember, I was expecting two possible scenarios, whereof the second scenario became reality. However, the (blue) 4 seems to be complete at this stage and the next and final stage, the (blue) 5 is in full swing. Right, for all of you who are not really...

Dluginacci

I have just opened the third and last position within my EURUSD pyramid. I did have a sprint towards the 1.10 in mind if the NFP doesn't come out as expected but I did expect the unexpected. Looking at the Elliot Wave count it actually makes perfect sense. Based on that we are seeing a perfect (orange ) 2 within the (red and blue) fives and overlaying c....

Dluginacci

So far the EUR/USD went according to plan - except the 4th wave. This may got some of us stumbling. Anyway, I do think it's completed now! So what do I expect to happen next? Based on my analysis and all the inidicators that come with it, the story is crystal clear: We are going down. The initial target of 1.02/00 still stands (based on EW counts) but we may...

Dluginacci

The last few weeks went like a clockwork. Basically every target zone got hit, every support held and the price action matched perfectly into the overall image of my Analysis. Now, since we have reached an ATH (all-time-high) at ~12.222 the price consolidated - which again - fit perfectly into my Elliot Wave count, as a small correction was overdue. On this note...