CoryMitchell-CMT

CoryMitchell-CMT

Sometimes gold move higher during increasing inflation , sometimes it moves lower. Inflation is NOT a good input for what gold will do.

CoryMitchell-CMT

US money supply (pink) has actually steadily increased in percentage terms. It has not risen sharply despite what most people say. Using a log scale shows the steady rise in percentage terms. If you use an arithmetic scale it looks like things are going parabolic. But you can't compare values from 50 years ago with values today, because compounding over time has...

CoryMitchell-CMT Updated 

Lots of chatter about rising interest rates and how that will affect stocks. I see no reason to guess. Let's look at the data. The chart shows inflation (orange) US interest rates (blue) and the S&P 500. Correlation between the S&P 500 and interest rates is shown at the bottom. I notice a few things: --Stocks tend to rise slightly more often than they decline...

CoryMitchell-CMT

Bitcoin is forming a cup and handle pattern. Handle is well developed. The price needs to break out of the handle, to the upside. This hasn't happened yet. The handle is a triangle. Volatility is contracting and that is a good thing. Volume is also dropping off. A big move often follows super low volume with this pattern. A move above $9,355 breaks the...

CoryMitchell-CMT

The stock market, as indicated by the S&P 500 and the NYSE Advance-Decline (AD) line, remains strong. The NYSE AD pushed to new highs on June 8, while the S&P 500 remains below its high (February). This has historically been a very reliable indicator that the S&P 500 will also follow through to new highs over the next several months. A quick note on some other...

CoryMitchell-CMT

Below the S&P 500 chart is a 1-period ROC (rate of change) showing the percentage moves each day. Bullish periods are calm, typically having moves of less than 1.5% a day (based on closes). Big moves to the uspide or downside typically only occur in corrections. The biggest upside days in the market occur during bear markets!

CoryMitchell-CMT

COVID-19 is being compared to the 1957 Asian flu. Here is a brief timeline and the S&P 500 charts over the periods. Sources: www.pharmaceutical-technology.com www.britannica.com theprint.in

CoryMitchell-CMT

Deciphera Pharmaceuticals (DCPH) is forming a triangle after a big run-up. This is not a trade yet. Ideally, I want to see the stock consolidate near the top of the triangle. Otherwise, I want to see a strong move out of the triangle on a one-day move with the price closing near its daily highs and well outside the pattern. I am looking for an initial target near...

CoryMitchell-CMT

Sea Limited (SE) is one I already own from near $38. While I already own this one, it is nice to see it still pop up on my strong stock scans. It is performing well, and another pop above $47.52 could set up a short opportunity for a run into the $50. It blows through that, I will utilize a trailing stop loss with the next target near $53. Already long. May add...

CoryMitchell-CMT

Corteva (CTVA) is forming a potential setup. I like the chart, but ideally I want to see the price action contract and consolidate between $33 and $32 (approx.), and the longer it does that the better. I would then want to see the price break above the top of that consolidation. Patterns like this can be very powerful in newly listed stocks, but for me, I need...

CoryMitchell-CMT

There is a potential to trade a downside breakout of the consolidation (lira continues to increase) into wedge/triangle support. The price target is the rising trendline on both the USD/TRY (near 5.75) and EUR/TRY (just above 6.4). A stop loss goes above the consolidation. The reward:risk is 1.25:1 to 1.5:1, but over a week or two the rollover would add to the...

CoryMitchell-CMT

There is a potential long trade in the AUD/USD shaping up as the price bounces off support. One way to trade the pair is to buy between 1.04 and 1.0350, with a stop loss just below 1.03. This assumes that 1.0316 on January 8 was the low for this swing, but still gives the trade a bit of extra room in case that area is retested. This trade provides a greater...

CoryMitchell-CMT

Consolidating along rising channel support, as well as near a series of recent lows. Consolidation could break in either direction with room to move on either side. Provides for a roughly 2:1 reward:risk or greater. Watch the consolidation (pink box) breakout on the daily chart

CoryMitchell-CMT

The USD/JPY is testing support which extends back to mid-November. Since mid-October, the rate has been moving sideways within a slightly ascending range. After failing to break through range resistance at 109.73 (109.62 based on closing price) the rate has collapsed and is now testing range support at 108.24 (108.40 based on closing price). There is some...

CoryMitchell-CMT

The Euro and Polish zloty (PLN) is testing a major support area on the daily chart, in place since June of 2018 The support area is a large one, between 4.26 and 4.237. The price has been consolidating around 4.26 since Dec. 17. The high of the consolidation is 4.2755 and the low is 4.2528 (small pink rectangle). The breakout direction for that consolidation...

CoryMitchell-CMT

CADJPY...In the short-term, a rise above 83.65 would signal a continued advance to the top of the current rising trend channel near 85. The 85 region also aligns with a major price top from March. If the price can successfully break above 83.65, a complex inverse head and shoulders will also be complete. The pattern is roughly 465 pips in height, which can be...

CoryMitchell-CMT

British pound currency index...As of mid-day trading on Dec. 26 the pound is bouncing off the 130 level, after dipping to 129. Shorter-term the upside target is 134 to 135, the area of the Dec. 12 peak. That 134 region is a longer-term resistance area, extending back to mid-2018. A continued rise above 134 and 135 would indicate that the GBP is rising to its...

CoryMitchell-CMT

Watch the Canadian dollar for strength if it breaks out of a triangle pattern on the Canadian Dollar Index chart (index against EUR, USD, GBP, AUD, CHF, JPY). The Canadian dollar index has outperformed the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar indexes over the last 1, 2, and 3 (shown) years. On the flip side, a downside breakout of the triangle would indicate...