Monday's extreme gaps in EUR/USD and GBP/USD indicated risk aversion, along with investors pulling money out of bonds, and currency traders buying the safe haven yen.
Today, the US 30Y yield is up, while the USD/JPY has recovered to break through daily resistance level #1 (R1). Next, the currency pair could break through R2, and finally, Dollar/Yen could retest...
bounce off July 4th supply zone sold to August 8th swing low.
price may reach 96.061 supply zone resistance this week, and bounce once again.
61.8% retracement from 96.061 swing high might sell to 94.013
GBPUSD pulled back from new supply zone resistance. might be a good idea to wait until the FTSE 100 breaks through resistance—which has held since August 19th.
in early April, that previous supply zone was tested, followed by a strong retracement to April 10th swing low. now, same supply zone is being tested.
102.281 demand zone tested recently. 61.8% retracement @ 102.436.
shooting star candle may signal retracement, as was the case on April 4th.
after price has tested supply zone twice or thrice—and buyers have flooded the market—selling pressure could cause a pullback to blow past the 61.8% retracement to the demand zone.
the first wave formed. next, the second wave formed with a 50% retracement to signal a buy. then, during the first hour of the New York session, a third wave could be seen to be forming.
* 50% Fibonacci retracement comes before beginning of 2nd wave which started @ 0.79552
* buyers have extended 3rd wave; selling pressure could push price toward demand zone @ 0.79565
TP 0.79598 (50% RETRACEMENT)
after the price blew past the 1st and 2nd supports on the D1 chart—and nearly a 3rd—the physics of supply will compel the price to return to the PP @ 172.04. hopefully, there will be enough momentum to take the price even further to the 50% Fibonacci level off the swing low.
Buy Stop @ 171.238
Pivot Point @ 172.040
Take Profit 1 @ 173.020 (50%)
Take Profit 2 @...
since I doubt that I will ever see the queen at any of NZ's milk auctions, and also considering how it takes silver much longer to tarnish than it does for milk to go sour, I have to side with a continuance of the uptrend from the swing low on March 27th, to the July 11th close. after the ice cream melts, you are left with the silver spoon that you ate it with....
$USDCHF
1. traders looking at US jobs data and listening for ECB measures to make more money and credit available for eurozone recovery.
2. recent trend follows earnings points, and runs parallel to Bollinger Band.
